Early Report - At Large Bids Next March

[glm38]

3 might be pushing it, but it certainly is possible.

The problem with the Valley is that it is the double round robin. Yes it is the perfect way to provide a champion, but looking at our competition out of conference we are playing 18 conference games to C-USA, A-10, and Mountain West's 16 games. We are beating up our own conference for 2 extra games.

I know SOS and RPI is huge, but when a mid major gets near the 8 to 10 loss range, they have to have some killer wins.

For the Valley to be successful this year 3 teams need to run away with the conference. we cannot have 3rd place teams losing 6 or 7 conference games and expect to make it, unless they are flawless in non conference.

You may be right. Unfortunately it doesn't seem like it ever happens that way very often. The Valley conference schedule is a grind. And sometimes the worst teams take out the best. Meaning it would be really unusual for 3 teams to run away from the rest of the pack.

[Ace Dad]

Every conference schedule is a grind. The Valley is no more a grind than X Conference or Y Conference.

[Bearvision]

Every conference schedule is a grind. The Valley is no more a grind than X Conference or Y Conference.

The point is we're playing more of those grind games than our peers.

[Ace Dad]

Every conference schedule is a grind. The Valley is no more a grind than X Conference or Y Conference.

The point is we're playing more of those grind games than our peers.

Noted.

And it gives our best 3 teams an opporunity to win two more games....right?

The knife cuts both ways.

[FeartheQ]

Noted.

And it gives our best 3 teams an opporunity to win two more games....right?

The knife cuts both ways.

Not really, I would assume the teams with fewer conference games get to choose additional non-conference games.

[Ace Dad]

Noted.

And it gives our best 3 teams an opporunity to win two more games....right?

The knife cuts both ways.

Not really, I would assume the teams with fewer conference games get to choose additional non-conference games.

OK. You may be right. I never thought about that aspect of our 18 game schedule.

[omahaben]

Every conference schedule is a grind. The Valley is no more a grind than X Conference or Y Conference.

It is when many conferences only play 16 conference games and the Valley plays 18. By definition, a conference must go .500 in those games, which for a conference with a non-conference record >.500, will drag down its overall RPI and the overall RPI of its teams. So the Valley hurts itself at least a little by playing those extra two games, even if it's still the right thing to do.

[LanceShock]

Noted.

And it gives our best 3 teams an opporunity to win two more games....right?

The knife cuts both ways.

Not really, I would assume the teams with fewer conference games get to choose additional non-conference games.

OK. You may be right. I never thought about that aspect of our 18 game schedule.

It would just mean two more low RPI cupcakes. Wins yes, but they would be fairly meaningless wins.

[MoValley John]

It would just mean two more low RPI cupcakes. Wins yes, but they would be fairly meaningless wins.

Actually, it's more than that. 16 vs. 18 conference games isn't a huge difference for a single team, but it is multiplied by each team in the conference. The difference between a 10 and a 12 team league is the potential for an additional 24 non-con wins for a conference. This can go a long way to generating more at large bids.

[MoBraves]

I am a little doubtful about even 2 teams in the Big Dance. If Creighton wins both the regular season by 2 or more games and then wins the Valley tourney, could be another 1-bid year.
Yes, we've got quite a few solid teams, but NCAA tourney worthy...we fall a little short.

It's too early to determine anything, and a team like MSU, Indy St, UNI could surprise us with a solid non-conf. and then finish 2nd in the league. Those bracket-buster games this year will probably mean a lot more than last year.

What wouldn't surprise me is if we get 3 NIT teams, as our Top 5 could all be NIT caliber or better. A big surprise would be getting 3 in the Big Dance. I'll be content with 2, as we haven't been treated to that in a long time.