Arch Madness seeding probabilities

by **MVCfans** » February 12th, 2012, 10:13 pm

Thanks to Hacksaw for doing the math for us. It will be fun to see what happens over the next couple of weeks.

link: The MVC Report - Arch Madness Seeding Probabilities

**Sponsor**

by **pafan** » February 12th, 2012, 10:47 pm

If I did the math right, there are still 210 different possible seedings of Thursday teams.

by **45otseoj** » February 13th, 2012, 12:18 am

Just a different look at it...

1
Wichita State 98%
Creighton 2%

2
Creighton 88%
Missouri State 10%
Wichita State 2%

3
Missouri State 49%
Illinois State 27%
Creighton 10%
Northern Iowa 5%
Evansville 8%
Drake 1%
Indiana State 0%

4
Illinois State 25%
Missouri State 25%
Northern Iowa 22%
Drake 14%
Evansville 12%
Indiana State 3%

5
Illinois State 26%
Northern Iowa 24%
Drake 19%
Evansville 14%
Missouri State 10%
Indiana State 7%

6
Drake 30%
Northern Iowa 21%
Evansville 19%
Illinois State 13%
Indiana State 11%
Missouri State 4%
Southern Illinois 1%

7
Indiana State 23%
Drake 22%
Evansville 21%
Northern Iowa 19%
Illinois State 8%
Southern Illinois 5%
Missouri State 1%

8
Indiana State 46%
Evansville 21%
Southern Illinois 13%
Drake 11%
Northern Iowa 9%
Illinois State 1%
Missouri State 0%

9
Southern Illinois 81%
Indiana State 10%
Evansville 5%
Drake 3%
Northern Iowa 1%

10
Bradley 100%

by **GOREDBIRDS4** » February 13th, 2012, 1:34 am

Hacksaw please explain to me how you got these numbers. I have been trying to figure this out for hours and I have different strategies but there has to be an easier way with so many scenarios.

by **Hacksaw** » February 13th, 2012, 9:52 am

GOREDBIRDS4 wrote:Hacksaw please explain to me how you got these numbers. I have been trying to figure this out for hours and I have different strategies but there has to be an easier way with so many scenarios.

The way I arrive is these numbers is through a spreadsheet. Basically I have one sheet with 1,024 rows of data, which represents every possible W/L combination of the last 10 conference games and how the final standings and tournament seedings will fall under each scenario. Last night, I took the 32 possible outcomes of the next round of conference games (Tues/Wed) and ran each scenario separately and then totaled the 32 different outputs of 1,024 scenarios to arrive at the 32,768 possible outcomes. If somebody has a better way, I'd like to hear about it as well.

by **cpacmel** » February 13th, 2012, 9:54 am

Thank you Hacksaw.

Every year your contributions (posts / data) is much appreciated.

by **1972Shocker** » February 13th, 2012, 9:57 am

GOREDBIRDS4 wrote:there has to be an easier way with so many scenarios.

There is and it is also more fun. It's called playing the games.

by **GrandpaBear** » February 13th, 2012, 10:49 am

MVCfans wrote:Thanks to Hacksaw for doing the math for us. It will be fun to see what happens over the next couple of weeks.

link: The MVC Report - Arch Madness Seeding Probabilities

I just became aware of your site and wanted to say thanks for putting it together. Having information like this is great.

We'll be in Sl. Louis for the 9th straight year and hope lots of you make the trip because it sure can be fun.

by **MVCfans** » February 14th, 2012, 8:58 pm

Thanks to Hacksaw for the quick numbers crunch. After the games tonight, the probabilities have been updated on The MVC Report.

The MVC Report - Updated Arch Madness Seeding Probabilities

by **Aces1982** » February 14th, 2012, 9:12 pm

Missouri St is 68% chance of finishing 3rd. Yet they will be dogs in 2 of their last 3 conference games.