Can the MVC break its Sweet 16 threshold?

[Aargh]

The amazing thing about Stutz is that he stops fouling and others start fouling him the moment he hits post-season play outside the MVC. Against all those "legitimate" BCS centers in the NIT last year, Stutz absolutely dominated because the officials let him play and didn't let two players grab his arms, shoulders, shirt, or anything else every time he tried to shoot or maneuver for a shot.

One of the problems Stutz has in Valley play is that he can't flinch or allow players to jump into him while he's standing motionless. The only way he can stay in games in the Valley is to not allow opponents to touch him while he's defending. Those calls don't go against him in post-season play. It's been that way for the last two years.

Getting TO the S16 depends a lot on the draw. CU is staring an 8-9 seed straight in the face. That's a tough route to get to the S16. You've just about got to have a 1 seed that overlooks you to get there from that seed. It can be a good seed for a "mid major" because the arrogant BCS teams are certain they've won the game before it starts. But, you have to get a really arrogant 1 seed to pull that off (KU won't have a 1 seed this year, but they are a good example of an arrogant team).

WSU looks like a potential 5/6 seed, which is fairly favorable for getting to the S16, but it still depends on specific player matchups with the drawn opponents.

Getting past the S16 is an absolute crap shoot. "Any given night" is every night because the matchups are that close and parity rears its head. Lesser teams get on roll and go nuts. Great teams have an off night and go home. That's the entire basis of the tournament and one of the main reasons it gets the TV viewers it always draws.

[blueblood]

On a related note, here is a funny and yet its not funny. Seth Davis votes in the AP poll. Creighton was ranked I think 13 weeks before the loss to WSU. Seth did not put Creighton into his top 25 until about 3 weeks ago. He made it a point to mention we did not deserve to be ranked. He tweeted back and forth with CU fans that no, not deserving. Seth has not put WSU into the rankings until they beat CU. Yet today he put out his picks for the Final 4 on twitter. He put WSU into his Final 4. Now I am not saying that WSU is not deserving in any way shape or form. The point is he has dissed the MVC all year and now we are going to the FInal 4? Point is not that WSU is not deserving, more that Davis is an ass.

[Wufan]

WSU is just a trendy pick today. They pass the eye test, that's all.

[blueblood]

Oh I agree that WSU is the trendy pick. CU was for a while. The point isn't that he picksed WSU. The point is he went from an anti MVC person to the final 4 in 2 weeks? Matty picked a fight with him about the 3rd week he did not rank CU. He and Matty fought it out over tweet every week. Its as if he now picked WSU to get back at Matt knowing Matt hates WSU. Get it? Again, WSU is deserving in my eyes.

[Wufan]

Lol. Matty P is tough to like.

[bleach]

Yep!
I think after the Bears get through Arch Madness with the auto bid, they roll into the final 4!

[purple&orange]

It'll happen. Over the last few seasons there have been a couple near misses that come to mind.

SIU-Kansas out West in 2007 I believe. Seems like forever ago doesn't it?
UNI-Michigan State in 2010. That whole region was a crapshoot with a lot of the higher seeds going down going into the Sweet 16 and UNI was trendy to get to the Final Four.

To me an underlying issue is the break between games. There is a ton of joy to get to that point but the regrouping before going on to the next weekend has to be quite an adjustment.

Look at Butler back in 2010. They barely beat #12/#13 Murray in the 2nd round and then head out West, shock Syracuse and then K-State to get to the Final Four. Then last season after beating Pitt in the 2nd round, get a great matchup vs Wisconsin and get overrated Florida.

VCU last season got a Purdue team without its best player in Hummel, clearly a different team to get to the Sweet Sixteen, then a middle of the road ACC team who knocked off #2 Notre Dame before beating the hell out of Kansas to get to the Final Four.

Sometimes it's not so much about us as it is about those other upsets in the region that give more favorable matchups. WSU and Creighton can play with just about anybody in the country, but doing it twice in 3 days makes it so difficult, although I really like WSU's depth and ability to score inside/out as well as defend. Creighton is very good as well, but they aren't as balanced as the Shockers and in tourney play that can be an assest (Davidson and Seth Curry in 2010) or the recipe for a quick exit.

[valleychamp]

Creighton is not playing any defense right now, and they have little chance of making a significant run in the tournament unless they make some adjustments defensively. They just have to play better. Right now, they strike me as a team that could easily lose a 100-98 game in the first round like Drake did in '08...

[glm38]

I can see either CU or WSU making a deep run (16 or further) this year. Both are good enough to do it. It just depends on the draw and how they are playing at the time.

[valleychamp]

Bump.

Matchups are out, what do you think?

I have WSU losing to UK in the sweet 16, and Creighton losing in the first round to Bama. Hope I'm wrong.