Casey's Coral Gables Regional Preview

[CaseyGarrisonforPrez]

Overall Preview: What a balanced grouping this one is. Four quality teams. Here are Boyd Nation's ISR based percentages on reaching the Super Regionals: Miami-55.7%, UCF 23.2%, Missouri State 15.7%, and Stony Brook 5.3%. Of note is the fact that Miami is the 15 likeliest of the 16 seeded teams to advance trailing only Purdue. Stony Brook's 5.3% chance of advancing is the highest of any #4 seed in the whole tournament. If that is not clear evidence of a balanced, competitive regional then you aren't paying attention.

Now let me tell you that I have never been a huge Boyd Nation fan. He is admittedly a Mississippi State alum and therefore I question his overall intelligence. Plus the time that he was in school overlaps Jeff Brantley's time at MSU (not the good MSU by the way) so I am not convinced that Boyd Nation is not in fact Jeff Brantley. My percentages for advancement are as follows: UCF-40%, Missouri State-40%, Miami-15%, and Stony Brook-5%.

#1 Miami--35-21: This team should not have been seeded. I don't know what kind of pictures Jim Morris has of selection committee members but the favorable treatment of Thug U has been a continual theme for years. The ACC had an inflated RPI this year. Miami played a lot of good teams and lost (see UF and FSU series) and then whipped up on the Albanies, Rutgers, Boston Colleges and so forth. They are led by a sixth year pitcher who is old enough to be Brandon Weedin's father. And considering Brandon's baseball pedigree, Eric Erickson might in fact actually be his father. Statistically this team does not really stand out. I feel like they lack heart and are relatively soft. These are a bunch of rich Florida and California kids that have been cottled their entire lives. They like to pretend they are tough. Google the postgame incident with Florida State from 2008 and see for yourself. But they will crumble if you come to Mark Light and don't act intimidated. UCF, Missouri State, and Stony Brook will not be intimidated. Hence my own personal percentages on advancement in this here regional.

#2 UCF--43-15: This team does everything well. Everything. They have been tested by an underrated CUSA this season and should be ready to pounce. I find their RPI number at 24 to be a bit artificially high much like Miami's but I think this group is a tough out. Well-coached too.

#3 Missouri State--39-20: We know about these boys. They have as good of a pitching staff as anyone in all of the NCAA, they just have to get timely hitting and make plays with their gloves. The overall quality of the arms as well as the quantity is why I see these boys moving on. What Nick and Pierce do in their starts will determine everything that follows. As they go, this team will follow.

#4 Stony Brook--46-11: When I saw that record I at first assumed that they had played some YMCA and junior colleges in Jersey and in the Northeast. Upon a closer inspection it turns out they have played 4 year academic institutions but a whole lot of schools that I had never heard of. Fairleigh Dickinson? That's an actual college? I bet they aren't fully funded at the 11.7 scholly level. Anyhow these kids play hard and have pretty amazing stats. However they share the same number of top 100 RPI wins as Kansas Wesleyan, Bethany College, and Ozarks Technical College. That is right, a big fat zero. I heard some people say some nice things about them, people like Will Kimmey, Aaron Fitt so that is largely why I give them the 5% which is the same number that baseball know it all Boyd Nation gives them.

So there you have it. I plan on doing this same exercise with the Eugene, OR regional and whatever one it was that Creighton made it too if time permits.

[Snaggletooth]

SWMO lose first game.

[CaseyGarrisonforPrez]

SWMO lose first game.

Yes. Thanks for the update chief.