Conference Realignment - May 1

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Re: Conference Realignment - May 1

Postby DoubleJayAlum » July 5th, 2012, 1:18 pm

havoc wrote:
DoubleJayAlum wrote:I can summarize the argument really clearly with one fact - the A10 has a better TV contract than the MVC. The A10 schools actually generate real revenue from the conference's TV contract where the MVC, with a few exceptions basically has to BUY ITS OWN TIME on Fox Sports/Comcast. A team can be a smaller player in the market, but yet the TV network still greatly covets that market.

I also notice in your little example that you forgot about cities like Dayton and Cincinnati, where fan interest is very high. Add to that another team now in Indianapolis and Richmond.


I said among others. You said a large number of the schools were in big metropolitan areas. I didn't realize 4/12 was a large number. Also, I wouldn't exactly say interest is high for Butler basketball in Indianapolis. I wouldn't call 6,600 in a 10,000 seat arena great, even in a down year for the program. Maybe a jump to the A10 will change that.

Butler generates interest nationally. They are usually ranked and people, for the most part, have heard of them and will tune into a game. Gonzaga doesn't have hug crowds either, but there is a national audience willing to tune into their games.

My list wasn't intended to be comprehensive; there are others as well.
havoc wrote:Would you trade Illinois State for Chicago State to gain the Chicago media market? How about Indiana State for IUPUI to gain Indianapolis?


Now you are just being stupid. St Joseph's is no Chicago St. Butler is no IUPUI.

Let me rephrase your question though - would I trade Evansville for Butler? In a heartbeat. Would I trade Evansville or Indiana State for Depaul? Yup. How about SLU for Evansville? Any day of the week.

Don't rely on home attendance numbers either. Doing that doesn't really make the MVC look very good since only about 3 teams average more than 5,000 people year in and year out. It also would severely undervalue a school like Duke that chooses to play in a small gym even though they could attract much bigger crowds in a larger arena (see also the Gonzaga example, supra).
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Re: Conference Realignment - May 1

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Re: Conference Realignment - May 1

Postby havoc » July 5th, 2012, 1:27 pm

DoubleJayAlum wrote:
havoc wrote:Would you trade Illinois State for Chicago State to gain the Chicago media market? How about Indiana State for IUPUI to gain Indianapolis?


Now you are just being stupid. St Joseph's is no Chicago St. Butler is no IUPUI.

Let me rephrase the question though - would I trade Evansville for Butler? In a heartbeat. Would I trade Evansville or Indiana State for Depaul? Yup. How about SLU for Evansville? Any day of the week.


Now you are just being stupid. The point of the question is would just trade a good team in a bad market for a bad team in a good market? I'll take a team that wins games and makes NCAAs tournaments in a smaller market over a mediocre team from a large city in a heartbeat.

Don't rely on home attendance numbers either. Doing that doesn't really make the MVC look very good since only about 3 teams average more than 5,000 people year in and year out.


Do you think the A10 is much better? They have teams that don't average 3,000 people year in and year out.
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Re: Conference Realignment - May 1

Postby DoubleJayAlum » July 5th, 2012, 1:37 pm

havoc wrote:Now you are just being stupid. The point of the question is would just trade a good team in a bad market for a bad team in a good market? I'll take a team that wins games and makes NCAAs tournaments in a smaller market over a mediocre team from a large city in a heartbeat.

Pardon me. I thought the point of the question was trading for a big market team that was a secondary or third tier focus of their respective community.

No offense, but Evansville had a losing record last year, hasn't made the NCAA tourney in a long, long time and over the last decade has frequently been a play-in game participant. Calling them a "good team" in a bad market seems to be a bit of a stretch by any metric one chooses to utilize. Perhaps you can see how I misunderstood your point considering the examples you used?
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Re: Conference Realignment - May 1

Postby valleychamp » July 5th, 2012, 2:15 pm

DoubleJayAlum wrote:Here is where your argument fails you - you continually look past recent data and instead rely on older data to support your arguments about the state of the conference and its history. Times are significantly different now. Getting into the NCAA tournament is much harder coming out of the MVC now than it was even as recently as six years ago. This past season was the first time that the Mvc got more than a single bid in the last five years. MSU missed out on an autobid even after winning a conference title.


No, it is absolutely not harder. For the most part, the depth of quality teams was simply just not as good as it was then, and most certainly the scheduling was much, much weaker. Can you honestly say that MSU 2011 was as good as those teams that made it during the multi-bid years? I don't think they probably were. But even if they were, they simply did not schedule well enough and they did not win enough on their non-conf schedule. Creighton didn't make it as a co-champ in '09, and a lot of that had to do with their weak ass schedule.

My argument doesn't fail because of the data I use, yours does. You cannot look at such small window of time (2-3 years) to make such a bold statement. Six years ago, we were flying high, and other conferences were down. We were up 6 years ago, and then we went through a down stretch. We will be up again (maybe right now), and we will be down again. These things often go in cycles. If you schedule well, and win games, you will make the NCAA tournament.

The problem with the MVC as it currently sits is that you do not get much of an opportunity for top 50 RPI wins within the conference. That wasn't true as recently as six years ago, when we got several bids. And, pay attention now because this answers another one of your questions, many of our schools can't either afford to schedule in a way that allows for a better RPI or don't want to spend the extra money that it takes to do so. They don't want to have to travel far to away games (meaning they will pass up quality match-ups just to save money) and they book home games against D2 or even D3 programs just so that they can make some revenue from playing at home. The net result is that schedule strength will continue to be weak going forward, perhaps even trending further downward, meaning that teams get next to no benefit to their NCAA resume by playing conference foes. On top of that, you get a stain on your resume when you eventually lose a game or two in conference.


That is just categorically false, and makes no sense whatsoever. Money has very little to do with putting together a quality schedule. In fact, in many cases its just the opposite. You get PAID to go out and play good teams on the road. (buy games like Syracuse, Vandy, Lousiville, ect that several MVC have taken here and there) It does not "cost money" to put together a good schedule. Please provide to us some examples of MVC schools not scheduling good games because of money.

Tell me DJA, since Creighton has an apparent never ending river of money flowing toward their school that puts the rest of conference to shame, please give me a list of these great games that Creighton has scheduled that has both helped boost their resume AND the conference resume. Since Creighton is so infinitely more committed to scheduling and has so much more money to do so than the rest of us peons, I would love to see that list, and I'm sure it puts everyone else's schedules to shame. In accordance with your claims that other schools in the MVC don't want to "spend the money to do what it takes" and "dont want to travel", Creighton's non-conference games over the years should certainly BY FAR trump the rest of the league, right?

If you were WSU or Creighton last year, the only in conference game that you could possibly book as a top 50 win on your NCAA tourney resume was a game against the other. That's it. On top of that only one other team even provided a top 100 win - UNI. That's it. That essentially means that your postseason is either made during the noncon only to be put in jeopardy by what happens in conference, or it is essentially over after the noncon unless you win in St Louis. Because of the bad in conference RPIs, you have no chance whatsoever of redemption from a mediocre or average noncon by winning games within your conference like you do in other midmajor conferences.


What you just said is basically true of any mid-major conference. You have to schedule well, and win games period. MVC teams just started losing too many games last year once conference play started. IIRC, going into conference this year there were several top 50 RPI teams in the MVC, it was only after we started playing each other and accumulating some losses that the RPI's begun to drop. Despite that, the Valley STILL ranked as the #8 RPI league in the country last season, ahead of the PAC12, CUSA, and the WCC which you applauded earlier. The MVC is perennially a top 8 conference, and has often ranked in the top 6-7. Stop acting like the Valley is some weak ass conference that is hurting profiles.
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Re: Conference Realignment - May 1

Postby DoubleJayAlum » July 5th, 2012, 2:34 pm

valleychamp wrote:What you just said is basically true of any mid-major conference. You have to schedule well, and win games period. MVC teams just started losing too many games last year once conference play started. IIRC, going into conference this year there were several top 50 RPI teams in the MVC, it was only after we started playing each other and accumulating some losses that the RPI's begun to drop. Despite that, the Valley STILL ranked as the #8 RPI league in the country last season, ahead of the PAC12, CUSA, and the WCC which you applauded earlier. The MVC is perennially a top 8 conference, and has often ranked in the top 6-7. Stop acting like the Valley is some weak ass conference that is hurting profiles.


Weak ass? No.

WEAKER than the A10 and MWC? Yes.

I couldn't care less what # RPI league we are; it is a meaningless statistic that does little to determine the quality of the league IMO as the weakest team is given as much weight as the best team in the computation (it is just an average of all of the RPIs of the teams in the conference). A conference full of mediocre teams will have a better rating under this metric than a conference with a bunch of good teams that also happens to have a few stinkers. The committee has shown time after time after time that where the conference is ranked in RPI does not lead to NCAA tourney bids, so it is a pretty overrated metric to me.

The WCC which you apparently include as "weak ass" garnered more NCAA tourney bids than the MVC last year (despite having the lower average RPI). Over the last five years, the WCC has had more bids almost every year. In my estimation, the conference that gets more NCAA bids is the better conference, but I guess we can agree to disagree.
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Re: Conference Realignment - May 1

Postby DoubleJayAlum » July 5th, 2012, 2:51 pm

valleychamp wrote:What you just said is basically true of any mid-major conference.


No, it isn't.

Take, for instance, a school like Colorado St. They didn't have a single top 50 RPI win outside of their conference. If not for the 3 top 50 wins they got in their conference, they would not have received an at large. Their conference gave them an opportunity to play their way in. You can't do that in the MVC because there are not enough teams with RPIs that low.

Note- not only did CSU have 3 top 50 wins in conference, but they got six opportunites to get those wins as the MWC had four teams with sub 50 RPIs. (They also had another with a sub 100 RPi and only three teams with RPIs over 100). Almost every game they played in conference led to a better SOS and improved their chances. That has not happened in the MVC for quite a while. Note also taht this happened even after the MWC lost one of its periennial contenders in BYU to the WCC.

Look at the A10 - they had 8 schools with RPIs under 100! You can rack up some solid, resume building wins there. You can build a resume without having a dominating noncon record.
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Re: Conference Realignment - May 1

Postby valleychamp » July 5th, 2012, 2:53 pm

DoubleJayAlum wrote:I couldn't care less what # RPI league we are; it is a meaningless statistic that does little to determine the quality of the league IMO as the weakest team is given as much weight as the best team in the computation (it is just an average of all of the RPIs of the teams in the conference). A conference full of mediocre teams will have a better rating under this metric than a conference with a bunch of good teams that also happens to have a few stinkers. The committee has shown time after time after time that where the conference is ranked in RPI does not lead to NCAA tourney bids, so it is a pretty overrated metric to me.


You couldn't care less about RPI? Then tell me, DJA, exactly what metric do you want to use? Because it doesnt matter either way, the results are the same. RPI is just one measure, and they will all say that the MVC is a good league year in and year out. The ENTIRE basis of your argument is that the Valley is a drag on an amazing program like Creighton, and that the weak teams in this league have inherently damaged Creighton their basketball program, especially their ability to make the NCAA's. The numbers and rankings say otherwise. When Creighton (or any other team) has a good team, they have earned their way into the NCAA tournament out of this league.

The WCC which you apparently include as "weak ass" garnered more NCAA tourney bids than the MVC last year (despite having the lower average RPI). Over the last five years, the WCC has had more bids almost every year. In my estimation, the conference that gets more NCAA bids is the better conference, but I guess we can agree to disagree.


So what? And a few years before that, the Valley had many more bids than they did. Think their members wanted to close up shop and find a different conference 5-10 years ago when they didn't measure up to the Valley?
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Re: Conference Realignment - May 1

Postby valleychamp » July 5th, 2012, 2:58 pm

DoubleJayAlum wrote:
valleychamp wrote:What you just said is basically true of any mid-major conference.


No, it isn't.

Take, for instance, a school like Colorado St. They didn't have a single top 50 RPI win outside of their conference. If not for the 3 top 50 wins they got in their conference, they would not have received an at large. Their conference gave them an opportunity to play their way in. You can't do that in the MVC because there are not enough teams with RPIs that low.

Note- not only did CSU have 3 top 50 wins in conference, but they got six opportunites to get those wins as the MWC had four teams with sub 50 RPIs. (They also had another with a sub 100 RPi and only three teams with RPIs over 100). Almost every game they played in conference led to a better SOS and improved their chances. That has not happened in the MVC for quite a while. Note also taht this happened even after the MWC lost one of its periennial contenders in BYU to the WCC.

Look at the A10 - they had 8 schools with RPIs under 100! You can rack up some solid, resume building wins there. You can build a resume without having a dominating noncon record.


The key phrase that's missing from all of this is "in that particular year".

What you just outlined is exactly what happened in the MVC 5 years ago! It happened then, and it will happen again. Tell me, what teams in the MVC did not make the NCAA tournament that deserved to make last year? We had 2, and only 2, worthy teams last year and they both were unquestionably in the tournament.

The Pac12 only got their autobid in the tournament last year, and their regular season champ didn't make it. I suppose Washington is lobbying the WCC to get into that league because they got 3 bids last year. Correct?
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Re: Conference Realignment - May 1

Postby Khan4Cats » July 5th, 2012, 3:17 pm

It all comes down to teams winning games. An argument could be made that BYU did NOT deserve an NCAA bid last year (only 5 top-100 wins) but there certainly wasn't any MVC team that could have made a case for a third MVC team. BYU simply did not lose to any of the dregs of the WCC. The WCC had 2 very good teams, 1 good team in BYU but 3 awful teams in Pepperdine, Portland and Santa Clara who only beat each other in conference (and one Pepperdine win over a mediocre San Francisco). Besides the 3 NCAA teams, the WCC only had two teams play post-season (Loyola-Marymount in the CIT-won 2 games and San Francisco in the CBI-lost first game).

The Valley beat each other up but still placed two teams in the NCAA, two in the NIT (both advanced past the first round), two teams to the CIT (with Drake winning a game), and one in the CBI. In addition, Missouri State chose not to play in any post-season.

The ultimate goal is the NCAA and the WCC out-did the Valley in that, but only got 5 of 9 in post-season while the Valley got 7 of 10 (and could have had an 8th). Maybe the Valley needs to expand but instead of adding good schools, look to add fillers like the WCC has or the A-10 has with more bad teams to get wins. Plus those shouldn't hurt the top team's RPI's since they will have games against other conference schools and won't have the impact of playing schools like Chicago State and Houston Baptist who don't give anything to help the RPI.

By the way, the A-10 had 4 NCAA teams and 4 NIT teams (3 of whom lost in the first round-2 at home), so 8 out of 14 there. Yep, both the A-10 and WCC are light year's ahead of the MVC.
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Re: Conference Realignment - May 1

Postby valleychamp » July 5th, 2012, 3:21 pm

I'm still awaiting DJA's evidence as it pertains to MVC teams shying away from competition due to finances, and to Creighton's vastly superior non-conference scheduling...
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