by TheAsianSensation » November 21st, 2012, 3:56 pm
Let's rationally look at the contenders for such a league, as a fake commish who has complete authority to pluck whatever teams make sense:
Tier 1: locks, because of ability + geography, or just geography in the case of DePaul:
Georgetown
DePaul
Marquette
Villanova
St John's
Xavier
Tier 2: virtual locks, but in right situation, could get left behind
Seton Hall (likely a lock because of tradition, but they do duplicate a market)
Dayton (see SHU explanation)
St Louis (slight geographical outlier)
Tier 3: tossups
Providence (in real danger, but tradition probably saves them)
Butler (remember, we've seen the peak from them. you have to trust the average season for them will hold up against the rest of the league)
St Joseph's (duplicates a market, which is a biggie)
Tier 4: odds are against, but definitely much larger than 0:
VCU (outlier on the southern side of the conference)
George Mason
George Washington (both Georges share a market, so it could be an either/or situation)
Creighton
Wichita St (2 geographical outliers that I think would be in the same group. Even though Creighton is a more desirable program overall, adding them alone leaves an outlier problem, which is why you two are grouped together, IMO)
Tier 5: very unlikely
Drake
Bradley
Drexel
Hofstra
Northeastern
Siena
Iona
LaSalle
Duquesne
St Bonaventure (could be rising now that scandal is in full rearview mirror now)
really small chance: Murray St, Evansville, Charleston, Davidson
Most of these schools are mixtures of marginal programs, good markets that are already covered by schools above, markets that aren't signifcant enough, geographical outliers, consistency issues, or multiple of these
Tier 6: holy batman on a stick what are they doing tier
Gonzaga
St Mary's
Denver
Seattle
some combination of Pepperdine, San Francisco, Loyola Marymount, Oral Roberts, Arkansas-Little Rock, Santa Clara - A national conference spanning coast to coast would start involving the western teams
A 16 team Catholic conference would almost have to take CU and WSU because you start to run out of new markets and programs otherwise. But in a 12 teamer? It's right on the edge. Ironically, I think both CU and WSU have to root for St Louis to be a part of the league, because they need as many western bridges in the conference as possible to make it work.
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