MVC Power Rankings - December 2 edition

[valleychamp]

I never read or take seriously any content that come from Gary Parrish or Jeff Goodman.

[RoyalShock]

I'm not predicting a conference title but I think Illinois State is good enough to beat Creighton and Wichita in conference play. We need to run the table the rest of the way in the OOC games now.

The Redbirds can be scary good. I would not be surprised if they were able to run the table in home conference games. It's shaping up to be a fun season!

[BCPanther]

Everything can still break right to get 4 bids. I really believe that WSU, CU, UNI, and IlSt will separate themselves from the rest of the pack.

I could really see the top 4 going 12-6 and better. UE and DU around .500 and very, very few wins for the bottom 4.

[DoubleJayAlum]

Everything can still break right to get 4 bids. I really believe that WSU, CU, UNI, and IlSt will separate themselves from the rest of the pack.

I could really see the top 4 going 12-6 and better. UE and DU around .500 and very, very few wins for the bottom 4.

Separating from the pack isn't good enough - you have to have a solid noncon record as well.

Illinois St has a big game tonight against an undefeated Wyoming team. I won't call it a must win, but there aren't a lot more chances for good wins (assuming, of course, that Wyoming ends up even being a good win at the end of the year).

[BCPanther]

Everything can still break right to get 4 bids. I really believe that WSU, CU, UNI, and IlSt will separate themselves from the rest of the pack.

I could really see the top 4 going 12-6 and better. UE and DU around .500 and very, very few wins for the bottom 4.

Separating from the pack isn't good enough - you have to have a solid noncon record as well.

Illinois St has a big game tonight against an undefeated Wyoming team. I won't call it a must win, but there aren't a lot more chances for good wins (assuming, of course, that Wyoming ends up even being a good win at the end of the year).

Agreed on IlSt.

WSU and Creighton have probably done enough noncon, assuming they don't drop one they shouldn't.

UNI needs to go 3-1 (maybe 4-0) against Mason, Iowa, UNLV, and St Mary's. Mason and Iowa are must wins...

[DoubleJayAlum]

Everything can still break right to get 4 bids. I really believe that WSU, CU, UNI, and IlSt will separate themselves from the rest of the pack.

I could really see the top 4 going 12-6 and better. UE and DU around .500 and very, very few wins for the bottom 4.

Separating from the pack isn't good enough - you have to have a solid noncon record as well.

Illinois St has a big game tonight against an undefeated Wyoming team. I won't call it a must win, but there aren't a lot more chances for good wins (assuming, of course, that Wyoming ends up even being a good win at the end of the year).

Agreed on IlSt.

WSU and Creighton have probably done enough noncon, assuming they don't drop one they shouldn't.

UNI needs to go 3-1 (maybe 4-0) against Mason, Iowa, UNLV, and St Mary's. Mason and Iowa are must wins...

Of that list of opponents for UNI, I think you almost need to go 4-0 or 3-1 if UNLV is one of the wins. Iowa isn't very good and won't help much. St Mary's doesn't look to be the St Mary's of the last three years and the verdict is still out on Mason (they may win a watered down, one bid CAA, but have only one win against a team with a wining record so far).

[valleychamp]

It all depends on how good the Valley actually is this year. I don't think UNI's margin is as thin as some others think. I think UNI might have a good enough resume to get in if they even just win a couple of those games--if they are the right two games. Iowa will be a mid-low pack B10 team, with chance of being a bubble team, Mason will probably win the CAA, St Marys will probably finish top 2-3 in the WCC, and UNLV is a top 20 team. UNI's non-conf schedule strength should be through the roof when all is said and done. Plus, there is a home bracketbuster game for UNI in there as well which could be a late season boost, and that should be a very winnable game given the diminished field. I think what we have seen the last couple years is that the committee has been rewarding teams that play difficult schedules.

And if the Valley is really good, especially at the top, that gives UNI two games each against CU, WSU, and Ill St. When the Valley is really good, you actually get credit for beating conference teams. That's what happened in the mid 2000's when we got all those at-large bids. UNI got a couple at-large bids in those years with only 22-23 wins total, along with only 1-2 really good non-conf wins.

[DoubleJayAlum]

I think what we have seen the last couple years is that the committee has been rewarding teams that play difficult schedules.

Only if you win some of those games though. If noncon schedule strength was all it took to get into the tourney, SWAC and MEAC teams would comprise a majority of the field yearly. However, they routinely lose all of those hard games and are not seriously considered.

It is a tough conundrum for UNI. Yes, it is great to schedule strong, but you actually get pushed instead of rewarded if you don't win any of the tough games.

[valleychamp]

Well, it obviously goes without saying that you have to win SOME of those games...

Point being, I just don't think that UNI has to win as many as some think they do, because of both the schedule strength, and the possibility that the Valley is really good. UNI has a TON of games left this year against really good teams.

[Wufan]

A four bid league (which I don't think will happen this year) requires two very good teams (top 25 RPI) and a third good team (top 30 RPI) to lose in St. Louis to the 4th place team (RPI around 50-60). The MVC will need a couple more top 100 RPI teams in 5th and 6th. As a conference, we have to win A LOT of non-con games for that to come to fruition.