So, How Good Will the MVC be this Year

[getreal4]

Avoiding bad losses: WSU & CU need to beat the MVC weak sisters twice and they both get bids IMO. UNI & Ill St will need more than just avoiding bad MVC losses.

[Aargh]

I've watched UNI, CU, IlSU and WSU this year.

Frankly, I'm not seeing it for UNI. In a league that's starting to have a lot of front court presence, I don't see UNI's front court competing that well, or maybe even holding up for an entire season of athletic and physical play.

IlSU looks scary good with what Brown, Allen, and Carmichael are doing. It seems like Carmichael has been there at least 6 years.

Everybody - MVC fans and WSU fans alike - was expecting WSU to look ugly at the beginning of the year and not get everything working until at least the start of Valley play, and then be pretty decent by February and March. That didn't happen. WSU's inexperienced bunch went to VCU. VCU returned 4 of 5 starters from their NCAA team and their "Havoc" D. WSU hardly blinked and showed surprising poise and maturity. WSU is in the top 25 in early December, and the consensus is STILL that the team isn't fully clicking yet.

I think WSU and CU are in if they continue doing what they've done to this point. I don't see it as unrealistic that CU, WSU, and IlSU could open up some separation from the rest of the league. Sorry, UNI fans, that's my opinion. You may consider the source and utterly discount it, but that's my opinion.

If 3 teams create separation, and with those teams doing well in StL, there could be 3.

[DoubleJayAlum]

Here are some numbers:

Code: Select all

Team & record   Current RPI   Games left     Best game left      
WSU, 9-0           18          3           @134 Tenn      
CU, 9-1           24           2            @26 Cal
IlSU, 6-3           45           3           @75 Dayton (& 2 - 260+ teams)
SIU, 3-2           113           5           @130 Utah St
BU, 6-2           127           3           87 Va Tech (neutral site)
UE, 5-4           177           2           @8 Butler
UNI, 5-3           181           3           @21 UNLV (& 2 – under 70 teams)
InSU, 3-3           187           4?           Hawaiian Classic (47 Old Miss)
DU, 3-4           193           4           118 Iowa St (neutral site)
MSU, 0-7           275!!!!      3            132 Valpo (neutral site)

(I don't know why the figures won't line up!)

Note that above data is for D1 non-con opponents only (RPI and NCAA selection committee don’t consider non D1 games, so I don’t either).

Based on above, MVC only has 3 sub 100 RPIs teams and those teams would seem to be the only ones with an at large chance. UNI, with an ugly present RPI of 181, has a huge uphill battle to get back in the discussion. Luckily, they do have the best slate of noncon games left (@21 UNLV, plus two other teams with RPIs under 70). I suspect they will have to win at least 2 of the 3 (that may not even be enough). If UNI fails at that, they will have to log quite a few wins against WSU and CU to have even a snowball’s chance at an at large. (UNI illustrates that having a tough noncon doesn't help your RPI if you don't win games).

The biggest problem here is that the conference will have quite a few teams bringing bad to absolutely horrible RPIs into conference play. Those bad RPIs will eventually provide a drag on the top teams in the conference. Worse, MSU has yet to log a real D1 win and may not even get one prior to conference season!

(NOTE: I realize that RPI is fluid and there is movement daily. The above is admittedly snap-shot data, but I think it is a pretty unbiased reflection.)

[valleychamp]

I've watched UNI, CU, IlSU and WSU this year.

Frankly, I'm not seeing it for UNI. In a league that's starting to have a lot of front court presence, I don't see UNI's front court competing that well, or maybe even holding up for an entire season of athletic and physical play.

IlSU looks scary good with what Brown, Allen, and Carmichael are doing. It seems like Carmichael has been there at least 6 years.

Everybody - MVC fans and WSU fans alike - was expecting WSU to look ugly at the beginning of the year and not get everything working until at least the start of Valley play, and then be pretty decent by February and March. That didn't happen. WSU's inexperienced bunch went to VCU. VCU returned 4 of 5 starters from their NCAA team and their "Havoc" D. WSU hardly blinked and showed surprising poise and maturity. WSU is in the top 25 in early December, and the consensus is STILL that the team isn't fully clicking yet.

I think WSU and CU are in if they continue doing what they've done to this point. I don't see it as unrealistic that CU, WSU, and IlSU could open up some separation from the rest of the league. Sorry, UNI fans, that's my opinion. You may consider the source and utterly discount it, but that's my opinion.

If 3 teams create separation, and with those teams doing well in StL, there could be 3.

Frankly, UNI fans are pretty used to opinions like that regarding our team. It doesn't matter how good UNI is or is not, many, like always, will continue say the same things about UNI. We heard the same stuff with every single one of our NCAA tournament teams. Heck, some people still don't recognize the 30 win, top 15 ranked Sweet 16 UNI team as being an elite team. A few of your fellow shocker posters have been predicting the abyss for UNI for several years running now.

I don't know how good UNI will be yet. They still have at-large chances if they can win some of these games they have left. But the fact that any poster on here is writing them off makes me laugh, because its really almost become tradition.

I'm curious though, how one could say that Illinois State has looked "scary good". They have 3 losses, one of which came to "zero NCAA appearances ever" Northwestern, and another was the debacle at home to Wyoming.

[DoubleJayAlum]

UNI still has a chance with Iowa, St Marys, UNLV to put themselves in a great spot.

IlSt probably has to win 3 in StL unless they go absolutely crazy (sweep CU, WSU, UNI) to get an at large.

I think in the end we end up with 3 bids. Creighton and UNI at large. WSU finally wins in StL.

Unless UNI goes at least 2 of 3 against those schools, I think UNI's chances at an at large are much worse than IlSU's.

[saluki762]

Creighton and WSU have done enough to get in barring collapse in conference, everyone else s*** the bed non-conference and have to win in STL. The only way that the Valley gets more than 2 is if someone other than these 2 win in STL.

[DoubleJayAlum]

Frankly, UNI fans are pretty used to opinions like that regarding our team. It doesn't matter how good UNI is or is not, many, like always, will continue say the same things about UNI. We heard the same stuff with every single one of our NCAA tournament teams. Heck, some people still don't recognize the 30 win, top 15 ranked Sweet 16 UNI team as being an elite team. A few of your fellow shocker posters have been predicting the abyss for UNI for several years running now.

I don't know how good UNI will be yet. They still have at-large chances if they can win some of these games they have left. But the fact that any poster on here is writing them off makes me laugh, because its really almost become tradition.

I'm curious though, how one could say that Illinois State has looked "scary good". They have 3 losses, one of which came to "zero NCAA appearances ever" Northwestern, and another was the debacle at home to Wyoming.

If the discussion for UNI is about an at large bid, I don't think it is unfair at all. Truth be told, UNI has a pretty large uphill battle considering a 5-3 record and 181!!! RPI.

Your points about IlSU are very valid. In the Wyoming game they had a huge lead so there is some reason for optimism. If they can figure out how to close, I think they will be very dangerous. "Scary good" seems like a reach...

[Khan4Cats]

UNI has a 181 RPI based on having only the one road game and the rest neutral or home games. The home games have come against teams that have not done very well at all this year (8-25 combined record with 4 of those non-D1 so really 4-25). Their RPI jumped almost 100 spots with the road win at Mason. UNI needs to win for it to keep climbing-and that is the key. I think winning 2 out of the next three will push it easily into the top 100 and maybe further (a win at UNLV would really vault it). If they do that, then they will still need to avoid any bad MVC losses but they are in the conversation.

Illinois State, on the other hand, is in a more tenous position. They have no bad RPI-wise losses yet, though only 1 of their last three non-cons are currently below 260. That game at Dayton becomes a must for a resume for them as Drexel is without one of their better players and stumbling. The best RPI win for them currently is UC-Santa Barbara at 49 with a 2-5 D1 record-that won't last. They just don't have the same non-con meat as UNI (potentially) has.

Wichita State's non-con isn't all that juicy either, but considering they haven't lost they are in good shape. Even if they should lose at Tennessee, which I don't see happening, it wouldn't be a real bad loss unless the Vols completely tank in the SEC. I think they have done enough and the win at VCU and over Iowa are good enough that as long as they don't pull any bone-headed losses in MVC play, they should be good.

I think Creighton is the one who has put themselves in the best shape with their non-con schedule and current results. I think at win at Cal should just about seal the non-conference resumer for the Jays even with that home loss. The lure of an AA on the roster will be too much for the selection committee to ignore as long as they don't completely f up the conference season.

[Aces1982]

UNI needs to win all three of those games to have any chance at an at large. And even at that, they would still need to finish MVC play around 13-5 maybe. I don't see that happening. Not even a chance of that happening.

I personally don't see much difference in UNI and UE. UE has lost 4 games, 3 to ranked ND, and 2 teams getting votes in Colorado St and Murray St. They will more then likely lose to Butler, also getting votes. The other loss was a bad loss that just so happened UE's best player got hurt. UNI has lost to Louisville, Memphis and Stanford. I just don't see much difference in these two teams. They will more then likely split in the regular season and very well could get the 4/5 match up in St Louis.

Illinois St only has one more non confeence game to get a good win. That is at Dayton. I believe they also will have to have a steller MVC record to get considertion. I not only can see them losing at UNI and at UE but also stumbling on the road to one or two other teams outside of Creighton and WSU. I think they have a big uphill battle to get the nod for the tournament.

Wichita is off to a great start. They will have a few stumbles in conference play that may make a deep run in St. Louis a necessity. They have the best chance outside of Creighton. They need to keep up the nice play and avoid several hiccups.

Creighton is a lock.

We will get 2 bids. Creighton and Wichita and could get 3 if someone outside of those 2 wins St Louis and Wichita can get to the Championship game.

[shocktheheart]

UNI needs to win all three of those games to have any chance at an at large. And even at that, they would still need to finish MVC play around 13-5 maybe. I don't see that happening. Not even a chance of that happening.

I personally don't see much difference in UNI and UE. UE has lost 4 games, 3 to ranked ND, and 2 teams getting votes in Colorado St and Murray St. They will more then likely lose to Butler, also getting votes. The other loss was a bad loss that just so happened UE's best player got hurt. UNI has lost to Louisville, Memphis and Stanford. I just don't see much difference in these two teams. They will more then likely split in the regular season and very well could get the 4/5 match up in St Louis.

Illinois St only has one more non confeence game to get a good win. That is at Dayton. I believe they also will have to have a steller MVC record to get considertion. I not only can see them losing at UNI and at UE but also stumbling on the road to one or two other teams outside of Creighton and WSU. I think they have a big uphill battle to get the nod for the tournament.

Wichita is off to a great start. They will have a few stumbles in conference play that may make a deep run in St. Louis a necessity. They have the best chance outside of Creighton. They need to keep up the nice play and avoid several hiccups.

Creighton is a lock.

We will get 2 bids. Creighton and Wichita and could get 3 if someone outside of those 2 wins St Louis and Wichita can get to the Championship game.

It is December 10th and WSU has to get to the championship game in St. Louis to get an at large and Creighton is a lock? We have yet to lose a game and we should be favored in the rest of the non conference. If we finish 13-5 in conference, that would mean only 6 losses on the year if we don't win in St. Louis. As of now, WSU will be favored in almost every game with the exception of three or four.