So, How Good Will the MVC be this Year

[Aces1982]

UNI needs to win all three of those games to have any chance at an at large. And even at that, they would still need to finish MVC play around 13-5 maybe. I don't see that happening. Not even a chance of that happening.

I personally don't see much difference in UNI and UE. UE has lost 4 games, 3 to ranked ND, and 2 teams getting votes in Colorado St and Murray St. They will more then likely lose to Butler, also getting votes. The other loss was a bad loss that just so happened UE's best player got hurt. UNI has lost to Louisville, Memphis and Stanford. I just don't see much difference in these two teams. They will more then likely split in the regular season and very well could get the 4/5 match up in St Louis.

Illinois St only has one more non confeence game to get a good win. That is at Dayton. I believe they also will have to have a steller MVC record to get considertion. I not only can see them losing at UNI and at UE but also stumbling on the road to one or two other teams outside of Creighton and WSU. I think they have a big uphill battle to get the nod for the tournament.

Wichita is off to a great start. They will have a few stumbles in conference play that may make a deep run in St. Louis a necessity. They have the best chance outside of Creighton. They need to keep up the nice play and avoid several hiccups.

Creighton is a lock.

We will get 2 bids. Creighton and Wichita and could get 3 if someone outside of those 2 wins St Louis and Wichita can get to the Championship game.

It is December 10th and WSU has to get to the championship game in St. Louis to get an at large and Creighton is a lock? We have yet to lose a game and we should be favored in the rest of the non conference. If we finish 13-5 in conference, that would mean only 6 losses on the year if we don't win in St. Louis. As of now, WSU will be favored in almost every game with the exception of three or four.

I missed your post on this topic? Ypu don't post but you are quick to pick apart others.

I said I believe they will have a few missteps in conference which will require a deep run. If they don't have any bad losses then they will be a lock. I just think they will lose some games in conference that will hurt them. My opinion.

[shocktheheart]

UNI needs to win all three of those games to have any chance at an at large. And even at that, they would still need to finish MVC play around 13-5 maybe. I don't see that happening. Not even a chance of that happening.

I personally don't see much difference in UNI and UE. UE has lost 4 games, 3 to ranked ND, and 2 teams getting votes in Colorado St and Murray St. They will more then likely lose to Butler, also getting votes. The other loss was a bad loss that just so happened UE's best player got hurt. UNI has lost to Louisville, Memphis and Stanford. I just don't see much difference in these two teams. They will more then likely split in the regular season and very well could get the 4/5 match up in St Louis.

Illinois St only has one more non confeence game to get a good win. That is at Dayton. I believe they also will have to have a steller MVC record to get considertion. I not only can see them losing at UNI and at UE but also stumbling on the road to one or two other teams outside of Creighton and WSU. I think they have a big uphill battle to get the nod for the tournament.

Wichita is off to a great start. They will have a few stumbles in conference play that may make a deep run in St. Louis a necessity. They have the best chance outside of Creighton. They need to keep up the nice play and avoid several hiccups.

Creighton is a lock.

We will get 2 bids. Creighton and Wichita and could get 3 if someone outside of those 2 wins St Louis and Wichita can get to the Championship game.

It is December 10th and WSU has to get to the championship game in St. Louis to get an at large and Creighton is a lock? We have yet to lose a game and we should be favored in the rest of the non conference. If we finish 13-5 in conference, that would mean only 6 losses on the year if we don't win in St. Louis. As of now, WSU will be favored in almost every game with the exception of three or four.

I missed your post on this topic? Ypu don't post but you are quick to pick apart others.

I said I believe they will have a few missteps in conference which will require a deep run. If they don't have any bad losses then they will be a lock. I just think they will lose some games in conference that will hurt them. My opinion.

What games do you think they will lose that they shouldn't?

[sixth ace]

Here are some numbers:

Code: Select all

Team & record   Current RPI   Games left     Best game left      
WSU, 9-0           18          3           @134 Tenn      
CU, 9-1           24           2            @26 Cal
IlSU, 6-3           45           3           @75 Dayton (& 2 - 260+ teams)
SIU, 3-2           113           5           @130 Utah St
BU, 6-2           127           3           87 Va Tech (neutral site)
UE, 5-4           177           2           @8 Butler
UNI, 5-3           181           3           @21 UNLV (& 2 – under 70 teams)
InSU, 3-3           187           4?           Hawaiian Classic (47 Old Miss)
DU, 3-4           193           4           118 Iowa St (neutral site)
MSU, 0-7           275!!!!      3            132 Valpo (neutral site)

(I don't know why the figures won't line up!)

Note that above data is for D1 non-con opponents only (RPI and NCAA selection committee don’t consider non D1 games, so I don’t either).

Based on above, MVC only has 3 sub 100 RPIs teams and those teams would seem to be the only ones with an at large chance. UNI, with an ugly present RPI of 181, has a huge uphill battle to get back in the discussion. Luckily, they do have the best slate of noncon games left (@21 UNLV, plus two other teams with RPIs under 70). I suspect they will have to win at least 2 of the 3 (that may not even be enough). If UNI fails at that, they will have to log quite a few wins against WSU and CU to have even a snowball’s chance at an at large. (UNI illustrates that having a tough noncon doesn't help your RPI if you don't win games).

The biggest problem here is that the conference will have quite a few teams bringing bad to absolutely horrible RPIs into conference play. Those bad RPIs will eventually provide a drag on the top teams in the conference. Worse, MSU has yet to log a real D1 win and may not even get one prior to conference season!

(NOTE: I realize that RPI is fluid and there is movement daily. The above is admittedly snap-shot data, but I think it is a pretty unbiased reflection.)

What site do you use for RPI.. is it realtime rpi or Ken pom ..etc. Just looking for the stats you post and wonder if everyone is using the same sites. thanks for your input

[DoubleJayAlum]

What site do you use for RPI.. is it realtime rpi or Ken pom ..etc. Just looking for the stats you post and wonder if everyone is using the same sites. thanks for your input

I use warrennolan.com. Over the last 5-7 years, it has been my perception that realtimerpi is wrong more times than not. Among other things, it seems to be a semi-regular occurrence that realtimerpi screws up neutral court games. At the same time, Warrennolan seems to be the most accurate, plus it even attempts to replicate the Nitty Gritty sheets that the committee uses to determine teams and seeds.

I could be wrong, but I thought kenpom stopped computing RPI several years ago. He's much more interested in tempo adjusted stats.

[Wufan]

Since it's December 10th and anyone could go undefeated until the Championship in St Louis, I'll talk about resume's so far and what has to happen for each team.

Creighton: Done enough so far to get a single digit seed. Maintain and they're in. I agree that a win at Cal will cement the BJs status in the non-con.

WSU: Done enough so far to get a single digit seed. Maintain and they're in. With the VCU win behind them, an undefeated non-con will cement the Shochers status in the non-con.

Ill St: Solid RPI and avoided the bad losses. They currently look like a bubble team. They need a win over a top 50 RPI (or top 25 RPI) team in Valley play or they'll be on the outside looking in. Lots of potential from this team.

UNI: Need wins!!! Showing you can loose to BCS teams is nothing special. Lots of SWAC teams do that as well (but generally not as close). UNI needs to win the remaining big three on their non-con and finish top 3 in the Valley with separation, OR win two of three and finish second, OR win at UNLV and win the MVC. Still opportunities, but they haven't shown their ability to beat other tourney teams.

Drake/Evansville/Indiana State/Bradley: Need to win the MVC for a CHANCE of an at-large.

MSU: Have to win in St. Louis. No chance of an at-large. If MSU wins the regular season, we are a one bid league.

[shoxrox]

UNI needs to win all three of those games to have any chance at an at large. And even at that, they would still need to finish MVC play around 13-5 maybe. I don't see that happening. Not even a chance of that happening.

I personally don't see much difference in UNI and UE. UE has lost 4 games, 3 to ranked ND, and 2 teams getting votes in Colorado St and Murray St. They will more then likely lose to Butler, also getting votes. The other loss was a bad loss that just so happened UE's best player got hurt. UNI has lost to Louisville, Memphis and Stanford. I just don't see much difference in these two teams. They will more then likely split in the regular season and very well could get the 4/5 match up in St Louis.

Illinois St only has one more non confeence game to get a good win. That is at Dayton. I believe they also will have to have a steller MVC record to get considertion. I not only can see them losing at UNI and at UE but also stumbling on the road to one or two other teams outside of Creighton and WSU. I think they have a big uphill battle to get the nod for the tournament.

Wichita is off to a great start. They will have a few stumbles in conference play that may make a deep run in St. Louis a necessity. They have the best chance outside of Creighton. They need to keep up the nice play and avoid several hiccups.

Creighton is a lock.

We will get 2 bids. Creighton and Wichita and could get 3 if someone outside of those 2 wins St Louis and Wichita can get to the Championship game.

Why is Creighton a lock but WSU is not? I'm not talking about assuming Creighton will win the league, because I think they will and that will secure them as a lock. But if we're talking about the current time, what has Creighton posted on their resume that makes them a lock over WSU? What's their big win? A struggling Wisconsin team in Las Vegas? I'd say the VCU road win is stronger at the current moment. WSU has better RPI numbers and hasn't lost a game either, while Creighton lost by double digits at home to Boise State. Was this just because you have a bone to pick with WSU like it appears you do or is this your true rays of wisdom? Seems like a wash at this point.

WSU needs to get to the championship game? That made me lol a bit too.

Not much difference between Evansville and Northern Iowa? First and foremost, UNI has pedigree and pretty good recent history with the NCAA. Evansville has zero of that. You can say that doesn't matter but it matters more than you think by committee members. UNI doesn't have a bad loss. Evansville lost to a bad Buffalo team at home. Coltless or not, that shouldn't have been an L. Anything else would be an excuse, something you pride yourself of not making. UNI has also played a way tougher schedule than Evansville. It's also about perception. You can say the two have similar resumes at the moment all you want, but the perception is that UNI is a way better team and was picked higher in preseason polls. Saying Evansville has the same chance that UNI has of an at-large may require your head to be examined. There is no way on this planet that Evansville sniffs an at-large bid. Maybe an NIT at-large, but even that is questionable. The Aces sure have a long ways to go to even get to that Top 4 spot that you predicted.

[Aces1982]

UNI needs to win all three of those games to have any chance at an at large. And even at that, they would still need to finish MVC play around 13-5 maybe. I don't see that happening. Not even a chance of that happening.

I personally don't see much difference in UNI and UE. UE has lost 4 games, 3 to ranked ND, and 2 teams getting votes in Colorado St and Murray St. They will more then likely lose to Butler, also getting votes. The other loss was a bad loss that just so happened UE's best player got hurt. UNI has lost to Louisville, Memphis and Stanford. I just don't see much difference in these two teams. They will more then likely split in the regular season and very well could get the 4/5 match up in St Louis.

Illinois St only has one more non confeence game to get a good win. That is at Dayton. I believe they also will have to have a steller MVC record to get considertion. I not only can see them losing at UNI and at UE but also stumbling on the road to one or two other teams outside of Creighton and WSU. I think they have a big uphill battle to get the nod for the tournament.

Wichita is off to a great start. They will have a few stumbles in conference play that may make a deep run in St. Louis a necessity. They have the best chance outside of Creighton. They need to keep up the nice play and avoid several hiccups.

Creighton is a lock.

We will get 2 bids. Creighton and Wichita and could get 3 if someone outside of those 2 wins St Louis and Wichita can get to the Championship game.

Why is Creighton a lock but WSU is not? I'm not talking about assuming Creighton will win the league, because I think they will and that will secure them as a lock. But if we're talking about the current time, what has Creighton posted on their resume that makes them a lock over WSU? What's their big win? A struggling Wisconsin team in Las Vegas? I'd say the VCU road win is stronger at the current moment. WSU has better RPI numbers and hasn't lost a game either, while Creighton lost by double digits at home to Boise State. Was this just because you have a bone to pick with WSU like it appears you do or is this your true rays of wisdom? Seems like a wash at this point.

WSU needs to get to the championship game? That made me lol a bit too.

Not much difference between Evansville and Northern Iowa? First and foremost, UNI has pedigree and pretty good recent history with the NCAA. Evansville has zero of that. You can say that doesn't matter but it matters more than you think by committee members. UNI doesn't have a bad loss. Evansville lost to a bad Buffalo team at home. Coltless or not, that shouldn't have been an L. Anything else would be an excuse, something you pride yourself of not making. UNI has also played a way tougher schedule than Evansville. It's also about perception. You can say the two have similar resumes at the moment all you want, but the perception is that UNI is a way better team and was picked higher in preseason polls. Saying Evansville has the same chance that UNI has of an at-large may require your head to be examined. There is no way on this planet that Evansville sniffs an at-large bid. Maybe an NIT at-large, but even that is questionable. The Aces sure have a long ways to go to even get to that Top 4 spot that you predicted.

Baller...first off where did I say UE had a chance for a bid? UE has a next to nothing chance for a bid, about the same as UNI. UNI has lost to good teams just like UE has done, outside of Buffalo. UNI has done nothing else to show they should be in consideration for a bid.

Second, my eyes tell me Creighton is a lock. They are the best team in the Valley...period!! They will win the conference and will be the favorites in St. Louis although anything can happen in a tournament.

Yes, I think if WSU will have some slip ups that will require them to go deep in St. Louis. I could be wrong about this but just my opinion.

Then I take it you must think Wichita is a lock for the NCAA since you got so bent out of shape about me saying Creighton was. If you are so hurt by that, will you go on record saying they are a lock? I don't think you have it in you to make that prediction. At least I gave mine.

Finally, some of you Shocker faithful get upset must not read the entire post. I said Wichita will get a bid.

[Wufan]

FYI...you said you thought WSU would get the autobid.

I still don't see you as a good judge of talent.

[Aces1982]

FYI...you said you thought WSU would get the autobid.

I still don't see you as a good judge of talent.

We will get 2 bids. Creighton and Wichita and could get 3 if someone outside of those 2 wins St Louis.


Where do you see I said WSU will get the autobid??

I think you are not very good at reading.

[SumShocker]

RealTimeRPI.com's GAMER Season Predictions as of today has the following:

Creighton 27-3 overall, 17-1 conference
Wichita State 28-2, 16-2
Illinois State 22-8, 14-4
Northern Iowa 15-14, 8-10
Bradley 15-14, 7-11
Evansville 13-16, 7-11
Drake 12-16, 7-11
Southern Illinois 12-16, 6-12
Indiana State 10-16, 6-12
Missouri State 2-26, 2-16