Bracketology 2012-2013

by **TheAsianSensation** » December 10th, 2012, 4:36 pm

Welcome to my award-winning* disclaimer: this has never won any awards Bracketology thread. This will be my home of my seasonal projections across the entirety of the NCAA. We can cover all topic local and national in here.

If you need credentials, I went 67/68 last year, missing the read on which ACC bubble team (NC State/Miami) would make it. Stupid big boy schools cost me a perfect bracket.

I can't remember if there was any poster here last year with their own thread for it, so let me know if I'm stepping on toes here. I'll do a MVC review in here and others can join in as desired. The short version: CU and WSU doing business, everyone else notsomuch.

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by **TheAsianSensation** » December 10th, 2012, 4:48 pm

Wichita St
9-0

Odds: 90/10 for an at-large bid

90%? I feel strongly on this one. Obviously, if you don't lose, you'll be fine. The SoS will be good and they limited the amount of cupcake consumption on the schedule. More important is this: @VCU, N-DePaul, @Iowa, @Tulsa, @Air Force. All wins away from home. The selection committee just eats this stuff up. See what Iona did last year. Just huge collections of decent road wins against decent but not great competition. It got them in. Even if Tulsa, AFA, and Iowa just end up around RPI 150, that looks good to the committee.

@Tennessee has turned into a bit of a "house money" situation - not really mandatory anymore. Of course, bad losses can sink this ship quickly, but if they're avoided, they're fine.

Creighton
9-1

Odds: 90/10 for

Same odds here. Better collection of wins that can end up turning out very good: St Joe's will contend in a loaded A-10, Arizona St can gain ground in a weak Pac-12, Wisky is Wisky. The only real concern is only 1 true road win, which is why I'd suggest binking the game at Cal just to remove all doubt. As is, if Boise can hold course and at least make that not a horrible loss, they'll be fine.

Illinois St
6-3

Odds: 25/75 against

The good news is none of the bad losses are catastrohpic. Yet. ISU fans just became Wyoming and Northwestern fans. Realistically, ISU needed a split there.

They're also getting royally screwed by Drexel's dive. That was supposed to win the CAA. That has gone completely in the tank. That was supposed to be signature-win worthy.

Still, believe it or not, ISU's still in this. Once Morgan St starts running the table in the MEAC, it's possible Drexel might actually be the worst RPI team on the SoS. Unbelievably enough, the removal of Jank's scheduling practices has had an IMMEDIATE impact. There's a couple potential albatrosses in FDU, DSU, et al, but nothing close to resembling the albatrosses during Jank's prime.

Needless to say, winning @Dayton is mandatory. If you win that, you can at least afford to dream, ISU.

by **TheAsianSensation** » December 10th, 2012, 4:56 pm

Northern Iowa (5-3)
Chances: 15/85 against

Not dead yet, but just a killer tournament. They needed one somewhere. As is, one reasonable road win IS on the ledger and a sweep of the Iowa/UNLV/St Mary's stretch erases pretty much all of that tournament. And if they win 2 of them, they'll be at least within shouting distance of the bubble. UNI's problem is that their bottom end of the schedule is getting very heavy, with N Dak and N Colo both tanking rather ugly.

Don't read much into UNI's RPI/SoS right now - that'll escalate quickly by January. If UNI wins, those numbers will take care of themselves.

Indiana St (3-3)
Chances: 5/95 against

You could've talked me into a puncher's chance because the first 2 losses were vicious roadies, but Morehead St is not vicious. Must beat Ole Miss and then we'll talk.

Evansville (5-4)
Chances: 5/95 against

All the chances for a decent win have gone by the board. None of their wins project to be top 150. As is, does still get Butler on the road, so you never know.

Drake (3-4)
Chances: 5/95 against

Actually the losses aren't terrible and @Nevada might have value if it ever comes to it, but too much damage and not enough raw number of wins.

Bradley (6-2)
Chances: 2/98 against

The schedule just isn't good. Ignore the record. Besides, bubble teams will at least hang in against USF. Will revisit if they can beat Va Tech.

Southern Illinois
Chances: 1/99 against

Bad schedule is going to make the discussion a non-starter, frankly.

Missouri St
Chances: lolno

by **getreal4** » December 10th, 2012, 8:06 pm

Can't argue too much with the comments. Too high on Drake, no wins. Oterwise spot on..

by **shockerengr** » December 10th, 2012, 8:14 pm

correction: the WSU win vs IOWA was neutral court, not road.

by **shocktheheart** » December 10th, 2012, 8:20 pm

shockerengr wrote:correction: the WSU win vs IOWA was neutral court, not road.

WSU was at home as well and not on the road

by **LJay** » December 10th, 2012, 8:56 pm

WSU has one really nice win on the road at VCU picked 3rd in the A-10. Then a neutral court win over the team picked 13th of 15 in the Big East, a neutral court win over the team picked 10th of 12 in the Big 10 and a road win over the team picked 9th of 9 in the Mountain West. The rest of the non-con is crap although getting a series with Tulsa is always a good thing; who knew they would suck this year? Where was that game played by the way?

A lot will be discovered at Tennessee who was picked 4th in the SEC. Win that one and we know WSU is legit. Hell, play them within 5 points and we'll know they are legit. Lose big and questions remain.

by **Turner** » December 10th, 2012, 9:12 pm

LJay wrote:A lot will be discovered at Tennessee who was picked 4th in the SEC. Win that one and we know WSU is legit. Hell, play them within 5 points and we'll know they are legit. Lose big and questions remain.

Tennessee is god awful and Cuonzo will be lucky to survive after this season. A WSU win helps them, but their bosy of work is already enough to get a bid as long as the MVC season is adequate.

by **LJay** » December 10th, 2012, 9:32 pm

Turner wrote:
LJay wrote:A lot will be discovered at Tennessee who was picked 4th in the SEC. Win that one and we know WSU is legit. Hell, play them within 5 points and we'll know they are legit. Lose big and questions remain.

Tennessee is god awful and Cuonzo will be lucky to survive after this season. A WSU win helps them, but their bosy of work is already enough to get a bid as long as the MVC season is adequate.

Hmmm, maybe I was looking at the football poll? Coupld have sworn it showed Tennessee at 4th.

by **TheAsianSensation** » December 11th, 2012, 9:38 am

Bah, that's what I get for not double-checking facts

Anyways, I get the preseason predictions, but they're all playing at least reasonably around or above those expectations. And all these road/neutral wins. I guess I shouldn't be premature in telling WSU fan to go nuts, but the resume is better than it appears on first glance. Hidden value in there.