UNI struggles

[Wufan]

You guys do realize our worst lost is to KenPom #43 with wins over St Marys (top 50) and Mason (Top 100).

Win the games we should, get Creighton once, get Wichita at least once, and get Illinois State at least once and we are in good shape. I don't know about 12-6 getting in, but 13-5 puts us right in the middle of the discussion.

UNI Resume at 13-5 (19-11) overall:

RPI (about 50)
Record against RPI top 25: 1-5 (Win at WSU minus 3 starters, 0-3 against WSU in Iowa and 0-2 against CU)
Record against RPI top 50: 3-7 (2-2 against In St and ISUr)
Record against RPI top 100: 4-9 (No additional 50-100 opportunities in MVC)
Record against 100-200: 8-0 (All valley games)
Record against 200+: 6-0

Assuming that UNI can beat anyone in the top 50 (they haven't yet), UNI is weak bubble team. 15-3 puts you strongly in the mix. Good luck!

[Snaggletooth]

I don't know about 12-6 getting in, but 13-5 puts us right in the middle of the discussion.

Think again, UNI needs a 14-4 or 15-3 to be in the discussion (that would get them to the RPI 35 to 45 range)

[UNIFanSince1983]

We will not get an at large birth. I do like our chances in the Valley, though. The only teams we have had problems with this year are teams with long, big, athletic players. They Valley is not filled with teams that have players like that. The only one really is Wichita. Illinois State may have a few as well.

As for Carmichael vs Tuttle I think that is a very good matchup. Carmichael got the best of him last year in Normal and St. Louis (when UNI was really really bad), but Tuttle did work in Cedar Falls.

Tuttle has been up and down, but mostly up this year. The games he has had trouble are against teams with thick yet very athletic big men. A couple of which would start at ANY team in the Valley. Bennett from UNLV is the best player we will see all year. But I guess we will see how Tuttle fares in his second go round in the Valley.

[DoubleJayAlum]

You guys do realize our worst lost is to KenPom #43 with wins over St Marys (top 50) and Mason (Top 100).

You guys do realize that the committee doesn't care about kenpom ratings, right. They use the RPI in which St Mary's is ranked 89 with its best win against a ranked team at 93. Further, it seems pretty likely that George Mason's RPI will take a hit when they start playing games in the very weak CAA.

Win the games we should, get Creighton once, get Wichita at least once, and get Illinois State at least once and we are in good shape. I don't know about 12-6 getting in, but 13-5 puts us right in the middle of the discussion.

Sorry, an MVC team is not getting an at large with under 20 wins. It won't happen. A SOS of 62 is nice, but it isn't even the best in the conference. On top of that, you aren't going to get rewarded for a tough SOS when you didn't beat any of the good teams.

[Khan4Cats]

UNI needs to be 15-3 or better, which would be either 1st or s2nd in the regular season. It cannot afford losses to any of the bottom 5 teams with RPIs in the 150+ range and it needs to pick up wins against the 4 teams in the top 50. They are in the middle of both groups right now at 117 and could go either way depending on what happens.

They needed at least 1 of the 5 losses to be wins to have built any cushion in the at-large resume. Wins over Louisville or UNLV would have likely given more breathing room but didn't happen.

There is no help on the horizon in Bracketbusters even if they were the top home team and they are not close for that.

As for UNI's struggles, it is no different than in past year's. If they are hitting at 35% from 3 or better, they will be in games. If they are not, they will not be. Our 7 wins: 62%,30%(ot),38%,43%,44%,42%,44%. Our 5 losses: 32%,27%,26%,18%,37%.

[valleychamp]

UNI got an at-large bid in '05 with a 21-10 record, while losing in the first round in STL. UNI's best wins that year were over a 19-12 Iowa State team with a mid-60's RPI, a couple wins against a 19 win MSU team, and 1 win at home against RPI #15 SIU. We lost a lot of games against really good teams that year.

UNI got an at-large in '06 with a 22-8 regular season record.

Bradley got an at-large with an 18-9 regular season record in '06 after making it to the MVC title game in STL.

VCU got an at-large with a 21-10 regular season record in '11 coming out of the CAA.


Those are just off the top of my head, but there are countless others with similar bids. Point being, you don't have to necessarily have a gaudy record to get a bid, and its ridiculous to say "UNI has no shot at an at large" at this point in the season--before conference play has even started. They have lost some games, but they were ALL to very good teams. There have been many, many cases where a team has schedule up, and they are rewarded by the committee for doing so.

They really hurt themselves not winning 1 or 2 more of those tough non-conf games, but they picked up a couple decent wins and have plenty of games left against really good teams in MVC play (plus a bracketbuster, plus Arch Madness). They obviously have to go on a pretty significant run during conference play, which seems unlikely at this point given how they have played thus far, but they still have a shot to do so.

[Shockerfan13]

I keep reading how UNI has only lost to good teams. While that is true, you get at large bids based on good WINS not good losses. I just don't think UNI will pull off the kind of season in conference that would MAYBE give them a chance at an at large bid. They played some tough teams, but they needed to at least pick up 1 or 2 more wins to feel good about their chances IMHO. They just didn't capitalize off of the schedule they played

[valleychamp]

I keep reading how UNI has only lost to good teams. While that is true, you get at large bids based on good WINS not good losses. I just don't think UNI will pull off the kind of season in conference that would MAYBE give them a chance at an at large bid. They played some tough teams, but they needed to at least pick up 1 or 2 more wins to feel good about their chances IMHO. They just didn't capitalize off of the schedule they played

You get in with good wins, but you also get eliminated with bad losses, of which UNI has none of.

They still have 20+ games to play this year, many of which are against really good teams.

[DoubleJayAlum]

UNI got an at-large bid in '05 with a 21-10 record, while losing in the first round in STL. UNI's best wins that year were over a 19-12 Iowa State team with a mid-60's RPI, a couple wins against a 19 win MSU team, and 1 win at home against RPI #15 SIU. We lost a lot of games against really good teams that year.

UNI got an at-large in '06 with a 22-8 regular season record.

Bradley got an at-large with an 18-9 regular season record in '06 after making it to the MVC title game in STL.

VCU got an at-large with a 21-10 regular season record in '11 coming out of the CAA.


Those are just off the top of my head, but there are countless others with similar bids. Point being, you don't have to necessarily have a gaudy record to get a bid, and its ridiculous to say "UNI has no shot at an at large" at this point in the season--before conference play has even started. They have lost some games, but they were ALL to very good teams. There have been many, many cases where a team has schedule up, and they are rewarded by the committee for doing so.

They really hurt themselves not winning 1 or 2 more of those tough non-conf games, but they picked up a couple decent wins and have plenty of games left against really good teams in MVC play (plus a bracketbuster, plus Arch Madness). They obviously have to go on a pretty significant run during conference play, which seems unlikely at this point given how they have played thus far, but they still have a shot to do so.

Here's the thing:

(1) You lose credibility when citing 2006. In that year, the conference was the best it had been since the hey day in the 1970's and nationally people were talking all year about the MVC getting 4 or even 5 bids. None of that talk has taken place this year and the conference is nowhere near as good. Just having MSU in the conference this year is going to bring everybody's RPI down once conference play starts.

(2) This is a really bad year to hope for a boost from bracketbusters. The CAA isn't participating and both Butker and VCU are in the A10 now and not available. The best possible opponents look to be a couple of schools in the Patriot League and maybe Murray St. It may be very hard for even the MVC schools with the best RPIs to get matchups against other schools with sub 50 RPIs. It is no coincidence that BB is ending after this season.

(3) In 2011, VCU still had 20 wins and made it to the championship of their conference tourney, plus they had at least 3 wins against RPI top 50 schools including an impressive win against UCLA and a win at WSU in bracketbusters essentially knocking WSU out of the tourney. They were also generally recognized as the last team in and roundly criticized for not being worthy (their tourney run notwithstanding).

I agree that one can't say UNI is definitively "out" for certain as anything could happen. However, UNI has a pretty rough road to hoe just to get to 20 wins and even that won't put them in. They are going to need to go at least 14-4 and win two games in St Louis to get themselves squarely on the bubble in IMO.

[shoxrox]

I agree with Shockerfan13 and DoubleJayAlum.

Sure, mathematically, UNI is still alive for an at-large bid if they go 15-3 or better in Valley play, but realistically, they eliminated themselves after the loss to Iowa. Are UNI fans really thinking that this team has 15-3 type of run in them?

When you have an RPI in the mid 100's with nearly half the season over, you'd have to go on a monumental tear just to get within bubble range. At this point, Indiana State has way better of a chance to get an at-large bid out of the Valley, and even with them, it's a long shot.