MVC Bids

[shoxrox]

Their resume is marginally better, on the basis that they have 1 less loss than UNI and that their two good wins (Miami and Miss) are a little better than UNI's two good wins (SMC and GMU). But UNI doesn't have a bad loss like ISU does either (morehead st). They are very similar.

To say it is "MUCH better" is an exaggeration to say the least.

How do their RPI's compare?

[Heinro]

No one thinks this season is like 2006, but that doesn't mean 4 is out of the question. In 2006 we were not hoping for 4, we were hoping for 6. We had 2, last 8 out teams. I think that CU, WSU, and ISUr could separate enough to get themselves in (maybe ISUb or UNI but unlikely). The 4th would have to win in the Valley tourney.

The 4th team would almost certainly need to beat the 3rd on Sunday, and even then the loss may give the committee enough of an excuse to snub them.

[Jet915]

I actually think ISUB has better at-large chances (after CU and WSU). Two marquee wins (Ole Miss and Miami) and one bad loss (Morehead). Both those teams are likely NCAA teams. ISUR has one good win against a bubble team (Dayton) and that's it.

[bluejays22]

I think Creighton and ISU red make the tourney. Unfortunately, Wichita will lose several games early because of injuries and will battle for the NIT title once again.

[Wufan]

To get a "bubble-worthy" RPI (40ish), here is the record that each Valley team needs:

Bradley: 17-1
Creighton: 12-6
Drake: 17-1
Evansville: 15-3
Illinois State: 13-5
Indiana State: 13-5
Missouri State: 18-0 gets them to about 80. Odds of going 4-14 or better = 2%. Odds of going 0-18 = 30%
Northern Iowa: 14-4
Southern Illinois: 15-3
Wichita State: 11-7

For a REAL chance (30 or lower), You'd need this:

Bradley: 18-0
Creighton: 14-4
Drake: 18-0
Evansville: 16-2
Illinois State: 15-3
Indiana State: 15-3
Missouri State: N/A
Northern Iowa: 16-2
Southern Illinois: 16-2
Wichita State: 12-6

http://www.rpiforecast.com/confs/MVC.html

You seem to put a lot of stock in that site. Seems pretty speculative to me. It isn't just your own record that determines RPI - it is the record of your opponents and your opponents' opponents.

You are astute. This site predicts that teams will do what they are supposed to do. It is speculative. If you know of a better site, please inform me.

[Wufan]

I would like to hear more about UNIf as an at large please.

[Snaggletooth]

To get a "bubble-worthy" RPI (40ish), here is the record that each Valley team needs:

Bradley: 17-1
Creighton: 12-6
Drake: 17-1
Evansville: 15-3
Illinois State: 13-5
Indiana State: 13-5
Missouri State: 18-0 gets them to about 80. Odds of going 4-14 or better = 2%. Odds of going 0-18 = 30%
Northern Iowa: 14-4
Southern Illinois: 15-3
Wichita State: 11-7

For a REAL chance (30 or lower), You'd need this:

Bradley: 18-0
Creighton: 14-4
Drake: 18-0
Evansville: 16-2
Illinois State: 15-3
Indiana State: 15-3
Missouri State: N/A
Northern Iowa: 16-2
Southern Illinois: 16-2
Wichita State: 12-6

http://www.rpiforecast.com/confs/MVC.html

You seem to put a lot of stock in that site. Seems pretty speculative to me. It isn't just your own record that determines RPI - it is the record of your opponents and your opponents' opponents.

The site uses Sagrin predictor and run 10,0000 simulations for each team to come up with the predictions (and valid RPI) daily. It is perfect for illustrating just exactly what Wufan just showed. It also has a table showing you how each team is impacting your RPI and how each team will impact your RPI in the future (and also shows the impact of your opponents opponents effects you.. It is a great site.

[shoxrox]

I think we should give UNI fans a day or two before re-inquiring about their at-large chances. But I would be curious to know how they feel when (if) they come back.

[valleychamp]

1) What is with your obsession with this topic and turning it into a UNI thing? You are trying to throw something back in UNI fan's faces that was never initially thrown.

2) yeah, you're totally not baller.

[Wufan]

1) What is with your obsession with this topic and turning it into a UNI thing? You are trying to throw something back in UNI fan's faces that was never initially thrown.

2) yeah, you're totally not baller.

Should it go in the UNIf struggles thread?