Hoops Index

[WhiskeySierraUniform]

This is my attempt at creating a college basketball power ranking system. I will try and update each week as the polls and RPI's come out. The formula is similar to that used in the BCS rankings for college football. I know I may have lost some of you right there, but I did say similar and not exact. My rankings are comprised of 4 components, as opposed to three in the BCS. I use three polls (AP, USA Today, ESPN Power Rankings) and one RPI metric (Realtime RPI, CBS RPI, Warren Nolan, KenPom, Rivals, and StatSheet).

The polls take the total points given for each team divided by the total possible points. For instance, Duke received 1623 point this week out of a possible 1625 in the AP Poll, so there poll component for this ranking is 0.9988. The 1625 is calculated as 65 voters times a possible 25 points. The other polls are calculated the same.

The RPI Metric is calculated by using the top 25 from each of the six RPI's noted above and taking out the highest and lowest score. Then I took the four RPI's left, assigned a point value (25 points for #1, 24 points for #2, 23 points for #3, etc.) added them up and divided that by 100. For instance, Duke was ranked 1, 1, 1, 4, 1, 1 in the RPI's, which gives them point values of 25, 25, 25, 22, 25, 25. Throw out a 25 and the 22, and you are left with four 25's or 100. Divide this by a total possible of 100, and that gives you a score of 1.000 for the RPI Metric.

1) Duke: 0.99881
2) Michigan: 0.94633
3) Kansas: 0.85636
4) Arizona: 0.0.85527
5) Louisville: 0.0.84460
6) Indiana: 0.74352
7) Syracuse: 0.62464
8) Gonzaga: 0.61521
9) Minnesota: 0.60720
10) Florida: 0.56621
11) Illinois: 0.52146
12) Ohio State: 0.49752
13) Butler: 0.43211
14) Creighton: 0.42853
15) Missouri: 0.40190
16) Cincinnati: 0.34451
17) Georgetown: 0.30500
18) New Mexico: 0.29112
19) Michigan State: 0.24010
20) NC State: 0.23496
21) San Diego St: 0.22085
22) Colorado: 0.21194
23) Notre Dame: 0.20982
24) Oklahoma State: 0.18277
25) UNLV: 0.17748

Next Ten:
Pittsburgh: 0.11703
Miami (FL): 0.09500
Wichita State: 0.09201
Belmont: 0.06000
North Carolina: 0.05154
VCU: 0.04725
Kansas State: 0.04366
Kentucky: 0.04200
Wyoming: 0.01899
Temple: 0.00522

[Ricardo del Rio]

So are you saying that if WSU played Duke, then Duke would be a 10.855:1 favorite?

If so, then it is not too bad.

[WhiskeySierraUniform]

I guess you could look at it that way.

It's just a way to incorporate the major polls and RPI's in to one ranking to attempt to go beyond just one poll. I personally think it is a better judge of a team than a poll that frankly most voters probably don't put much thought in to.

[Heinro]

I track these 2 quite often, pretty useful.

http://www.masseyratings.com/cb/compare.htm

http://bracketproject.50webs.com/matrix.htm

[pawball]

You mean you use'em.

[shockem]

I'm no mathemetician, but i would think that any ranking metric that uses human polls as part of the index is inherently flawed.

[MoValley John]

I'm no mathemetician, but i would think that any ranking metric that uses human polls as part of the index is inherently flawed.

I disagree. While human polls are often flawed, so are the computers. The computer can only crunch numbers. The eye test, while very flawed, has merit. A hybrid of both the computer and human observation, is often the more accurate.

[WhiskeySierraUniform]

Update for week 10 as of this morning.

Notes:
New to the top 25: Miami (20), Kansas State (24), Wichita State (25)

Dropped out of top 25: UNLV, Oklahoma State, Georgetown

Biggest Winners: Notre Dame (up 7 spots), Miami (up 7 spots), Kansas State (up 8 spots). Notre Dame went 2-0 with wins over Seton Hall and at ranked Cincinnati. Miami went 2-0 with wins over LaSalle and at Georgia Tech. Kansas State went 1-0 with a win over ranked Oklahoma State.

Biggest Losers: Cincinnati (down 7 spots), Georgetown (down 9 spots), Oklahoma State (down 10 spots). Cincinnati went 0-2 with losses to St. Johns and Notre Dame, both at home. Georgetown went 0-1 with a loss at Marquette. Oklahoma State went 0-1 with a loss at Kansas State. Both Georgetown and Oklahoma State were significantly impacted by drops in all three polls. Georgetown went from an averaging ranking of 15 in week nine polls to an average ranking of 21 in week ten polls. Oklahoma State went from an averaging ranking of 22 in week nine polls to an average ranking of 29 in week ten polls.

Other: Creighton moved up 2 spots to #12 with wins over Illinois St. and Indiana St. along with a slight bump in the RPI metric. Wichita State moved up 3 spots with wins over Drake and Bradley, along with bumps in the polls while the RPI metric remained relatively stable. Indiana State is on the fringe, being two spots from the “next ten” due to a solid RPI.


1) Duke: 0.99863
2) Michigan: 0.94231
3) Arizona: 0.86828 (+1)
4) Kansas: 0.86278 (-1)
5) Louisville: 0.83747
6) Indiana: 0.75093
7) Gonzaga: 0.70030 (+1)
8) Minnesota: 0.68120 (+1)
9) Syracuse: 0.67840 (-2)
10) Florida: 0.61876
11) Illinois: 0.53434
12) Creighton: 0.52517 (+2)
13) Missouri: 0.47102 (+2)
14) Butler: 0.36546 (-1)
15) Ohio State: 0.31492 (-3)
16) Notre Dame: 0.29021 (+7)
17) NC State: 0.27100 (-3)
18) San Diego State: 0.26986 (+3)
19) Michigan State: 0.23737
20) Colorado: 0.19250 (+2)
20) Miami (FL): 0.19250 (new)
22) New Mexico: 0.18618 (-4)
23) Cincinnati: 0.15798 (-7)
24) Kansas State: 0.15370 (new)
25) Wichita State: 0.14534 (new)

Next Ten:
Georgetown: 0.12589
UNLV: 0.10722
VCU: 0.10070
Kentucky: 0.07038
Oklahoma: 0.07000
Wyoming: 0.05347
Belmont: 0.03750
Colorado State: 0.03065
Oklahoma State: 0.02728
UCLA: 0.02257

[WhiskeySierraUniform]

Week 12 Update:

1) Duke: 0.95910
2) Kansas: 0.92113
3) Michigan: 0.91311
4) Syracuse: 0.85132
5) Arizona: 0.82184
6) Florida: 0.77970
7) Louisville: 0.76991
8) Indiana: 0.69656
9) Butler: 0.64891
10) Gonzaga: 0.60215
11) Minnesota: 0.56710
12) Michigan State: 0.50613
13) New Mexico: 0.45167
14) Kansas State: 0.37317
15) NC State: 0.36912
16) Creighton: 0.36112
17) Ohio State: 0.31650
18) VCU: 0.28556
19) Wichita State: 0.27873
20) Miami (FL): 0.27789
21) Oregon: 0.26768
22) Cincinnati: 0.20895
23) Missouri: 0.10238
24) Colorado State: 0.10235
25) Marquette: 0.09311

Next Ten:
Mississippi: 0.08428
Colorado: 0.08000
UNLV: 0.07568
Notre Dame: 0.06158
San Diego St.: 0.03669
Wisconsin: 0.03257
Oklahoma: 0.02750
UCLA: 0.02625
Belmont: 0.01750
Wyoming: 0.01035

Here is my prediction for the NCAA field of 68:

Automatic Bids (31):

Albany - America East
Butler - A10
NC State - ACC
Mercer - Atlantic Sun
Kansas - Big 12
Syracuse - Big East
Montana - Big Sky
Charleston Southern - Big South
Michigan State - Big 10
Long Beach St. - Big West
Northeastern - CAA
Memphis - CUSA
Wright State - Horizon
Harvard - Ivy
Iona - MAAC
Akron - MAC
Norlfolk St. - MEAC
Creighton - MVC
UNLV - Mountain West
Robert Morris - Northeast
Belmont - Ohio Valley
UCLA - PAC 12
Bucknell - Patriot
Florida - SEC
Davidson - Southern
Stephen F. Austin - Southland
Southern - SWAC
South Dakota St. - Summit
Middle Tenn St. - Sun Belt
Gonzaga - WCC
La. Tech - WAC

At Large Bids (37):

ACC:
Duke
Miami
North Carolina
Virginia (Last 4 In)

A-10:
VCU
Xavier
Temple (Last 4 In)

Big 12:
Kansas State
Oklahoma
Iowa State
Oklahoma State
Baylor (Last 4 In)

Big East:
Louisville
Cincinnati
Marquette
Notre Dame
Pittsburgh
Georgetown

Big Ten:
Michigan
Indiana
Minnesota
Ohio State
Wisconsin

C-USA:
Southern Mississippi (Last 4 In)

MVC:
Wichita State

Mountain West:
New Mexico
Colorado State
San Diego State
Wyoming

Pac-12:
Arizona
Oregon
Colorado

SEC:
Missouri
Mississippi
Kentucky

WCC:
Saint Mary's
BYU