WestOmahaBluejay wrote:CU shot 10% under their season average in the game, and WSU shot 7% under theirs from the field, so I am not seeing a huge disconnect there. Sure CU's lower FG percentage can be attributed to WSU's style of defense, but also there were plenty of open looks that CU missed that would have made a difference (i.e. Wragge getting two open looks to tie the game). And to say that Wichita's low FG percentage was all about missing open shots - did you watch the game? CU played one of its better defensive games of the season (outside of a few possessions) and matched the Shockers intensity through all 40 minutes, on the road. Going back on it, Wichita State won the game with all of its second chance opportunities (outscoring CU in that stat 23-5), and the turnover margin (14-6).
I'm unsure why you think pointing out difference from season average in the game matters. According to Pomeroy, Wichita State is the 32nd best defense in the country, and Creighton is 59th ... of course Wichita State held Creighton to a lower average, because Wichita is the better defensive team. It's not an aberration when you're held to a lower shooting % than normal against a good defensive team. That's to be expected.
I agree that Creighton played one of its better defensive games of the season. That had little to do with Wichita's terrible 3 point % (particularly in the first half), though, and nothing to do with their terrible FT%, though.
My point is, which is more likely in the rematch in Omaha: Creighton will out rebound Wichita offensively (despite having nearly 100 less offensive rebounds through the season so far), Creighton will hold Wichita to offensive numbers similar to what VCU held them to (VCU as the 13th best defense in the country, versus Creighton at 59th), Wichita State will hold Creighton to 10% under their season average (as the 32nd best defense in the country)? In fact, the one statistical anomaly from that game was Creighton out blocking Wichita 6-4, despite averaging only 2.7 blocks a game to WSU's 4.7.
I don't know that Wichita will win in Omaha ... Creighton is an excellent team this year, and I think they're way better than last year now that they actually try to play defense rather than just running the score up, and McDermott's shot is beautiful. But if you're going to make excuses for losing, don't make them the ones that anyone should have been able to predict going into this game.
If you want to hang your hat on anything for the rematch in Omaha, I would point to the officiating, which I think is very unlikely to go Wichita's way to that extent in Omaha.. But then Creighton fans never complain about officiating; that's just Shocker fans, right?