Bracketology 2012-2013

[TheAsianSensation]

What is with the love for St. Mary's??? 2-3 top100 record and an RPI of 51. I've seen better teams be left out by of course, each year is a new set of problems.

Only 2 losses this calendar year are the two Gonzaga games. Often times, holding serve looks good when all the teams around you (yo, Indiana St) are punting games against the bottom half of their league.

Also a 7-2 road record, which the committee usually likes to bandwagon. I will say their non-con SoS is much worse than I originally thought.

[TheAsianSensation]

I'm too late into the day to get it all posted, and I'm still tinkering, but:

Wichita St on the 6 line
Creighton on the 7 line
Indiana St in the last 4 out, and given the NIT's track record, that means a 3 seed in that tournament
Northern Iowa projected into the NIT field as a 7 seed for now, but remember, the 7 line is usually filled with regular season champs that get autobids to the NIT. They're firmly on that bubble
Illinois St CBI, Evansville and Bradley to the CIT, but Evansville especially is in postseason trouble because the CIT enforces the .500 record thing

[TheAsianSensation]

If the numbers below appear to be off by one or two, remember that I include all projected conference champions in the bubble comparison. Trust me, the numbers work in the end.

The Lockbox (47 teams, even with last week)
Big East (7): Syracuse, Louisville, Marquette, Georgetown, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Cincinnati (I still could go any number of ways on the order but all 7 are still safe)
B1G (5): Indiana, Michigan St, Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio St (Minnesota drops from the lockbox)
Big 12 (3): Kansas, Kansas St, Oklahoma St (welcome OSU to the lockbox)
Pac 12 (2): Arizona, Oregon
ACC (2): Miami, Duke
MWC (2): New Mexico, Colorado St (cautionary drop of SDSU from here, also UNLV, I'll wait one more week)
SEC (1): Florida (this conference is quickly approaching tire fire status
A-10 (1): Butler (I do wish they'd reassert themselves with some non-losses here)
WCC (1): Gonzaga
MVC (1): Wichita St (just barely, and Creighton is barely out)
22 remaining autobids (Butler is projected as a lock but not as the A-10 champion as of today)

The Waiting List (10 teams, including 2 current projected autobids):
B1G (2): Illinois, Minnesota
ACC (2): North Carolina St, North Carolina
MWC (2): UNLV, San Diego St
MVC (1): Creighton
A-10 (1): VCU*
Pac-12 (1): UCLA
CUSA (1): Memphis*

This leaves 13 spots on the bubble. I have it as 32 teams for 13 spots today. The bubble expands a bit in February before contracting again.
In: St Louis, Oklahoma, Missouri, LaSalle, Colorado
Next 4 in: Middle Tennessee St*, Mississippi, Arizona St, Belmont*, Baylor
Last 4 in: St Mary's, Virginia, Villanova, Temple

Last 4 out: Kentucky, Boise St, Maryland, Indiana St
Next 4 out: Akron*, Alabama, California, Louisiana Tech*, Charlotte, St John's
Reasonable candidates: BYU, Massachusetts, Air Force, Arkansas, Stanford, Southern Miss, Iowa, St Joseph's, Wyoming, Xavier, Bucknell
Off the board: Valparaiso*, South Dakota St*, Richmond, Florida St, Ohio, Providence, Stephen F Austin

This is the cutoff for the NIT bubble (approximate only, of course). Bubble victims, in general order:
Northern Iowa, Texas A&M, Detroit, North Dakota St, Tennessee, Eastern Kentucky, Denver, New Mexico St

[TheAsianSensation]

Bracket form!

MIDWEST
@Lexington
1) Indiana (23-3) vs. 16) High Point (13-10)/Northeastern (17-10)
8) Memphis (22-3) vs. 9) North Carolina St (18-7)

@Dayton
4) Georgetown (19-4) vs. 13) Valparaiso (19-7)
5) Oklahoma St (19-5) vs. 12) St Mary's (21-5)/Temple (17-8)

@Austin
3) New Mexico (22-4) vs. 14) Lehigh (17-6)
6) Oregon (21-5) vs. 11) Middle Tennessee St (23-4)

@Philadelphia
2) Syracuse (21-4) vs. 15) Harvard (14-7)
7) Cincinnati (19-7) vs. 10) Oklahoma (16-8)

WEST
@Philadelphia
1) Duke (22-3) vs. 16) Mercer (16-9)/Southern (15-8)
8) San Diego St (16-7) vs. 9) St Louis (19-5)

@Salt Lake City
4) Marquette vs. 13) South Dakota St (18-7)
5) Ohio St (18-7) vs. 12) Belmont (18-6)

@San Jose
3) Arizona (21-4) vs. 14) Northwestern St (14-6)
6) Pittsburgh (20-6) vs. 11) Iowa St (17-8)

@San Jose
2) Gonzaga (24-2) vs. 15) Long Beach St (14-9)
7) Illinois (18-8) vs. 10) LaSalle (18-6)

EAST
@Lexington
1) Florida (21-3) vs. 16) Robert Morris (18-9)
8) VCU (21-5) vs. 9) North Carolina (16-8)

@Kansas City
4) Kansas St (19-5) vs. 13) Louisiana Tech (23-3)
5) Colorado St (19-4) vs. 12) Virginia (18-7)/Villanova (15-10)

@Dayton
3) Louisville (21-5) vs. 14) Stony Brook (18-6)
6) Wichita St (22-5) vs. 11) Arizona St (19-7)

@Auburn Hills
2) Michigan St (21-4) vs. 15) Montana (17-5)
7) UCLA (19-7) vs. 10) Missouri (18-7)

SOUTH
@Austin
1) Miami (21-3) vs. 16) Norfolk St (16-10)
8) UNLV (18-7) vs. 9) Minnesota (18-8)

@Salt Lake City
4) Wisconsin (18-8) vs. 13) Akron (20-4)
5) Butler (20-5) vs. 12) Baylor (15-9)

@Kansas City
3) Kansas (21-4) vs. 14) Davidson (18-7)
6) Notre Dame (20-6) vs. 11) Mississippi (19-6)

@Auburn Hills
2) Michigan (21-4) vs. 15) Niagara (16-11)
7) Creighton (21-6) vs. 10) Colorado (17-8)

[TheAsianSensation]

NIT projections. These got messy quick because of that stupid A-10, so there's conflicts there and seeding is everywhere.

EAST
1) Maryland (18-7) vs. 8) New Mexico St (17-9)
4) Wyoming (16-7) vs. 5) North Dakota St (18-7)
3) Massachusetts (16-8) vs. 6) Bucknell (20-5)
2) Alabama (16-8) vs. 7) Providence (14-11)

SOUTH
1) Kentucky (17-8) vs. 8) Eastern Kentucky (19-6)
4) Stanford (15-11) vs. 5) Xavier (14-10)
3) St Joseph's (14-10) vs. 6) Florida St (14-11)
2) Charlotte (18-7) vs. 7) Detroit (16-9)

MIDWEST
1) Indiana St (15-10) vs. 8) Tennessee (14-10)
4) Air Force (13-9) vs. 5) Stephen F Austin (17-3)
3) Arkansas (16-9) vs. 6) Richmond (15-11)
2) St John's (15-10) vs. 7) Ohio (19-6)

WEST
1) Boise St (14-8) vs. Denver (17-8)
4) Iowa (17-9) vs. 5) Southern Miss (18-6)
3) BYU (18-8) vs. 6) Northern Iowa (15-11)
2) California (16-9) vs. 7) Texas A&M (15-10)



CBI projections

James Madison (16-12) @ Clemson (13-12)
Loyola (MD) (19-9) @ West Virginia (13-12)
---
Vermont (16-9) @ Rutgers (13-11)
Dayton (14-11) @ Canisius (17-10)
---
Western Illinois (17-6) @ Green Bay (14-12)
Murray St (16-7) @ Illinois St (16-11)
---
UTEP (14-10) @ Utah St (17-6)
Santa Clara (17-8) @ Washington (14-12)




CIT projections

Rider (15-13) @ Boston U (15-11)
NJIT (10-11) @ Long Island (15-11)
Charleston Southern (11-9) @ Elon (16-8)
North Carolina Central (14-8) @ George Mason (15-11)
UIC (14-11) @ Western Michigan (15-9)
Evansville (13-13) @ Wright St (16-9)
Hawaii (14-11) @ Tulsa (13-11)
Oral Roberts (15-10) @ Texas-Arlington (14-9)
---
Bryant (16-8) @ Albany (19-8)
Iona (15-11) @ Delaware (14-13)
Savannah St (13-10) @ South Alabama (14-9)
FGCU (17-9) @ Charleston (19-7)
Tennessee St (13-11) @ Bradley (15-12)
Oakland (13-13) @ Toledo (12-11)
Pacific (13-10) @ Weber St (17-5)
Tulane (16-9) @ Arkansas St (16-9)

[TheAsianSensation]

Not to pile on, but congrats Indiana State. Your bracketbuster opponent is in the bottom half of the MAAC.

Ok, so it's 6th place out of 10, but still. Iona is about to careen out of the RPI Top 150 and will now actually hurt Indiana St's non-con SoS, which is in the 20s and one of the very few positives left on the InSu resume.

[shoxrox]

Thanks for doing this TAS.

Seems like a lot of effort to put this all together week after week. I enjoy it.

[TheAsianSensation]

Thanks for doing this TAS.

Seems like a lot of effort to put this all together week after week. I enjoy it.

Thanks.

I'm hoping everyone enjoys the CBI/CIT stuff, going that far down too. It gives a good snapshot of who's relevant across the country, although it's going to be wildly inaccurate the way the power conferences shun them.

Actually, that may be worth an essay by me sometime soon. I think the Valley may be forced into the same position the power 6 have taken agaist the CBI and CIT and boycott them (or at least the CBI definitely). There's some politics in the NIT selection committee that has been downright disturbing the last few years.

[Fargobison]

Great work TAS...Very interesting to look at your projections.

I agree it is a shame what happened to ISU, they should be hosting SDSU on Saturday.

[uniftw]

NIT projections. These got messy quick because of that stupid A-10, so there's conflicts there and seeding is everywhere.

EAST
1) Maryland (18-7) vs. 8) New Mexico St (17-9)
4) Wyoming (16-7) vs. 5) North Dakota St (18-7)
3) Massachusetts (16-8) vs. 6) Bucknell (20-5)
2) Alabama (16-8) vs. 7) Providence (14-11)

SOUTH
1) Kentucky (17-8) vs. 8) Eastern Kentucky (19-6)
4) Stanford (15-11) vs. 5) Xavier (14-10)
3) St Joseph's (14-10) vs. 6) Florida St (14-11)
2) Charlotte (18-7) vs. 7) Detroit (16-9)

MIDWEST
1) Indiana St (15-10) vs. 8) Tennessee (14-10)
4) Air Force (13-9) vs. 5) Stephen F Austin (17-3)
3) Arkansas (16-9) vs. 6) Richmond (15-11)
2) St John's (15-10) vs. 7) Ohio (19-6)

WEST
1) Boise St (14-8) vs. Denver (17-8)
4) Iowa (17-9) vs. 5) Southern Miss (18-6)
3) BYU (18-8) vs. 6) Northern Iowa (15-11)
2) California (16-9) vs. 7) Texas A&M (15-10)



CBI projections

James Madison (16-12) @ Clemson (13-12)
Loyola (MD) (19-9) @ West Virginia (13-12)
---
Vermont (16-9) @ Rutgers (13-11)
Dayton (14-11) @ Canisius (17-10)
---
Western Illinois (17-6) @ Green Bay (14-12)
Murray St (16-7) @ Illinois St (16-11)
---
UTEP (14-10) @ Utah St (17-6)
Santa Clara (17-8) @ Washington (14-12)




CIT projections

Rider (15-13) @ Boston U (15-11)
NJIT (10-11) @ Long Island (15-11)
Charleston Southern (11-9) @ Elon (16-8)
North Carolina Central (14-8) @ George Mason (15-11)
UIC (14-11) @ Western Michigan (15-9)
Evansville (13-13) @ Wright St (16-9)
Hawaii (14-11) @ Tulsa (13-11)
Oral Roberts (15-10) @ Texas-Arlington (14-9)
---
Bryant (16-8) @ Albany (19-8)
Iona (15-11) @ Delaware (14-13)
Savannah St (13-10) @ South Alabama (14-9)
FGCU (17-9) @ Charleston (19-7)
Tennessee St (13-11) @ Bradley (15-12)
Oakland (13-13) @ Toledo (12-11)
Pacific (13-10) @ Weber St (17-5)
Tulane (16-9) @ Arkansas St (16-9)

Possible rematch of the Bracketbuster game with Denver in the NIT for UNI...interesting. I assume that would also be at the McLeod Center, assuming the bracket looks like that and both teams win to that point?

Also possible rematch with Iowa....good. I'd like nothing more than to beat those stupid ffffffffffffffcks.