Arch Madness seeding probabilities - updated Feb 18

[GoShockers89]

I don't believe that is true. Can't Wichita win against Eville and Creighton beat Bradley and Creighton still have an opportunity to get the one seed with a home victory over the shox?

Nope. Season series would be 1-1, tiebreaker then moves to non-con SoS which WSU owns.

[shoxrox]

I don't believe that is true. Can't Wichita win against Eville and Creighton beat Bradley and Creighton still have an opportunity to get the one seed with a home victory over the shox?

Nope. Season series would be 1-1, tiebreaker then moves to non-con SoS which WSU owns.

Which I think would be a ironic and a bit humorous considering the legions of BJ fans coming into the year telling everyone how great their schedule was gonna be and that WSU's didn't hold a candle to theirs.

[BCPanther]

Creighton better beat Wichita, and Bradley for that matterr, or they will end up the 3 seed. UNI has the SOS tiebreaker and is favored fairly heavily in their last two games (@SIU, vs IlSU)

[GoShockers89]

Creighton better beat Wichita, and Bradley for that matterr, or they will end up the 3 seed. UNI has the SOS tiebreaker and is favored fairly heavily in their last two games (@SIU, vs IlSU)

I imagine that would be disappointing for the greatest team in Creighton history.

[jegbomb52]

my mistake, I thought Creighton won in Wichita this year, not the case. You are correct. Wichita wraps up the 1 (at least against Creighton) with win on Wed against Eville.

[cu8493]

Creighton better beat Wichita, and Bradley for that matterr, or they will end up the 3 seed. UNI has the SOS tiebreaker and is favored fairly heavily in their last two games (@SIU, vs IlSU)

I imagine that would be disappointing for the greatest team in Creighton history.

I can assure you that it is already disappointing to be where we are at this point.

[MVCfans]

Hacksaw,

I noticed you are using ESPN's noncon SOS figures. Any idea how those compare with realtimeRPIs numbers? I've done some checking on the web and find it interesting that while RPIs are pretty consistent from one site to another, noncon RPIs seem to vary greatly. Thoughts?

Looks like this is the official word. wp/2013/02/20/from-the-mvc-office-official-rpi-and-non-conference-strength-of-schedule/

Ind St > UNI > WSU > CU > DU > UE > SIU > IlST > MSU > BU

Mike sent me an email with a minor correction which I have updated on The MVC Report: http://www.mvcfans.com

The correct orders is as follows: Ind St > UNI > WSU > MSU > CU > DU > UE > IlST > SIU > BU

[rlh04d]

I don't believe that is true. Can't Wichita win against Eville and Creighton beat Bradley and Creighton still have an opportunity to get the one seed with a home victory over the shox?

Nope. Season series would be 1-1, tiebreaker then moves to non-con SoS which WSU owns.

Which I think would be a ironic and a bit humorous considering the legions of BJ fans coming into the year telling everyone how great their schedule was gonna be and that WSU's didn't hold a candle to theirs.

I remember some Creighton fans bragging about that in December and into mid-January, for that matter:

Secondly, the main difference between WSU and CU at this point is Strength of Schedule. CU's is presently 55, while WSu's is almost double that at 103.

The only reason WSU's SOS would be higher than CU's at the end of the season is that WSU gets to play Creighton twice, while we don't get to play against ourselves. Think about it. Creighton's SOS after the noncon was significantly higher than WSU's. In the conference season, the two teams play all of the same teams, except that they can't play themselves.

The Shockers have beaten 4 teams in the top 100 RPI.

Four whole teams? Goodness, that's a pretty tough schedule.

Current ACTUAL SOS* are as follows:

Creighton: 43
Wichita St: 102

Hell, a good chunk of this thread is hilarious now: viewtopic.php?f=2&t=2727&p=51416&hilit=sos#p51416

I love the one about how the only reason WSU's SOS would go up is because Creighton can't play themselves twice. Just beautiful.

This one is a laugher as well, regarding why McDermott should win POY:

Further, I'd add that completely ignoring the noncon is stupid, especially when Creighton played a tougher noncon.

So, should we downgrade McDermott's POY chances now because his noncon schedule looks so much weaker these days? Surely DoubleJay wasn't simply trying to argue the value of nonconference SOS only because it benefited McDermott at that time. Maybe the POY award should go to someone who played against at least a top 100 SOS? I think DoubleJayAlum would agree that is simply fair. Noncon SOS should matter, says DJA!

[GoShockers89]

DoubleJayAlum may not post often, but when he does, he memorializes stupidity for posterity.

Stay thirsty my friends.

[valleychamp]

pwned.