Bracketology 2012-2013

[TheAsianSensation]

Usually I'm all for more mids in the tournament, but this year they have no one to blame but themselves. Once you get past the MVC in CRPI, everyone's been a disaster. BYU has gone down in flames. The CAA has been catastrophically awful. The bottom has fallen out of CUSA. THe MAAC's had a down year. The MAC East picked a horrible year to be way down, because Akron needed that profile boost.

Props to the Summit for creeping SDSU into the back end of the bubble talk, and to the OVC especially, which gamed the system well and should get Belmont in no matter what.

If you're worried about power 6 teams gobbling up at large bids, don't worry. The MWC and A-10 have the potential to vacuum all those up this year.


For the record, the only teams outside the top 9 conferences who should be in the at-large convo: Belmont, MTSU, Gonzaga, St Mary's, Akron, Louisiana Tech, Memphis. 7 teams. But Southern Miss? SFA? Ohio? Bucknell? SDSU? Nah. And if you count up the teams from this year, 7 teams is a historically low number of candidates.

[MVCfans]

According to WarrenNolan.com, my personal RPI choice, Wichita St's RPI is now 30. Creighton up to 39 despite losing today.

Wichita State is 3-0 vs Top 50 and 8-3 vs Top 100. I'll leave the bracketing to the experts, but I think WSU is setting themselves up well.

Looking deeper at the numbers, Creighton is 3-3 vs Top 50 and 8-5 vs Top 100. Still more than good enough to get an at large right now. A couple more losses though and the margin for error is completely gone.

[Jet915]

According to WarrenNolan.com, my personal RPI choice, Wichita St's RPI is now 30. Creighton up to 39 despite losing today.

Wichita State is 3-0 vs Top 50 and 8-3 vs Top 100. I'll leave the bracketing to the experts, but I think WSU is setting themselves up well.

Looking deeper at the numbers, Creighton is 3-3 vs Top 50 and 8-5 vs Top 100. Still more than good enough to get an at large right now. A couple more losses though and the margin for error is completely gone.

Agreed, to feel safe, Jays need to win the next two games and they are in regardless of what happens in St. Louis. Easier said than done of course. Luckily, even though CU has been suckin', our opponents like Wisky, ASU, Cal and Akron have picked it up.

[isumvc1]

this Missouri-Kentucky game is import for the MVC IMO

A KY loss basically knocks them off the bubble and allows a shot for another non BCS at large bid.

here is Lunardi's bracketology tonight.

A quick Bracketology update after Miami's stunning 80-65 loss at Wake Forest ...

TOP SEEDS
Indiana/MW
Duke/EAST
Gonzaga/WEST
Florida/SOUTH (replacing Miami)

LAST FOUR IN
California
Baylor
Ole Miss
Temple

FIRST FOUR OUT
Kentucky
Villanova
St. John's
Indiana State (replacing Southern Miss)

IN WITH A WIN
Villanova (vs Marquette)
Kentucky (vs Missouri)

OUT WITHOUT A WIN
Ole Miss (vs Auburn)
California (at Oregon State)
Arizona State (vs Washington)

http://espn.go.com/blog/collegebasketba ... off-1-line

I still think ISU MUST win in St. Louis, despite being on this list.

[isumvc1]

well crap, KY wins, so they will move to last 4 in, while Temple moves to first 4 out.

So nix that idea. oh well

[MVCfans]

From Eamon Brennan: http://espn.go.com/blog/collegebasketba ... s-and-more

WINNERS: Wichita State: There wasn't a ton of suspense surrounding Wichita State's BracketBusters matchup with Detroit on Saturday; it's hard to imagine the Shockers missing the tournament at this point. But with just a home game against Evansville and a road trip to Creighton left, Saturday's LOL -- lack of loss, a completely silly term I like to use every now and then -- shores things up quite nicely.

LOSERS: Creighton: Let's be clear: Losing on the road at Saint Mary's hardly makes you a loser. In a normal context, you take your trip to Moraga, Calif., in stride; you don't start freaking out because Matthew Dellavedova carved you up. He does that to everyone.

But it's time to face facts on Creighton. The Bluejays are not a lock for the NCAA tournament. We've had them as such since the first edition of Bubble Watch, and we've kept the faith since. We don't like to downgrade locks, because locks should be locks, so we delay any possible decision to do so. Then fans ask us how Creighton can be a lock and Wisconsin not, for example, and I have to try to explain, and lately people have responded with ever more confused looks. Rightfully so. Creighton might have looked lock-worthy a month ago, but since then it has lost four of its past six, including Saturday's loss at Saint Mary's and consecutive losses to Indiana State, Illinois State and Northern Iowa. None of those teams is bad, of course, but when you throw those sorts of middling-RPI losses onto a profile with a 48 RPI and a 119 SOS, whose three best wins came against Wisconsin, Akron and Cal -- no, you are not a lock. You're actually a lot more like a 10-seed.

It's time we adjust accordingly.

[TheAsianSensation]

Today I'm doing full bubble watch-like writeups. I do this more for me than you as I aggregate and file information in my own mind. Sometimes to looks good to write this all down. The vast majority of it won't be valley related but I'll import it as I go along if I remember to.

[isumvc1]

From Eamon Brennan: http://espn.go.com/blog/collegebasketba ... s-and-more

WINNERS: Wichita State: There wasn't a ton of suspense surrounding Wichita State's BracketBusters matchup with Detroit on Saturday; it's hard to imagine the Shockers missing the tournament at this point. But with just a home game against Evansville and a road trip to Creighton left, Saturday's LOL -- lack of loss, a completely silly term I like to use every now and then -- shores things up quite nicely.

LOSERS: Creighton: Let's be clear: Losing on the road at Saint Mary's hardly makes you a loser. In a normal context, you take your trip to Moraga, Calif., in stride; you don't start freaking out because Matthew Dellavedova carved you up. He does that to everyone.

But it's time to face facts on Creighton. The Bluejays are not a lock for the NCAA tournament. We've had them as such since the first edition of Bubble Watch, and we've kept the faith since. We don't like to downgrade locks, because locks should be locks, so we delay any possible decision to do so. Then fans ask us how Creighton can be a lock and Wisconsin not, for example, and I have to try to explain, and lately people have responded with ever more confused looks. Rightfully so. Creighton might have looked lock-worthy a month ago, but since then it has lost four of its past six, including Saturday's loss at Saint Mary's and consecutive losses to Indiana State, Illinois State and Northern Iowa. None of those teams is bad, of course, but when you throw those sorts of middling-RPI losses onto a profile with a 48 RPI and a 119 SOS, whose three best wins came against Wisconsin, Akron and Cal -- no, you are not a lock. You're actually a lot more like a 10-seed.

It's time we adjust accordingly.

you forgot

SURVIVORS

Indiana State: The survivors category is reserved for teams that did just enough to avoid completely destroying their résumés in one fell swoop, and that description certainly applies to the Sycamores. On Saturday, ISU held on to a 65-64 home win over Iona, whose 131 RPI would have ended Indiana State's chances of getting an at-large bid pretty much in their tracks. (This is one of the main criticisms of the now-sunsetting BracketBusters, by the way, that it ended up hurting just as many mid-majors as it helped.) Instead, a win keeps the flicker of hope alive, if only barely.

but ISU really has no shot for an at large unless they win the next 2 and make the finals in St Louis

[TheAsianSensation]

The lockbox (48 teams):
BEast (6): Georgetown, Syracuse, Louisville, Marquette, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh
B1G (6): Indiana, Michigan St, Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio St, Illinois
Big 12 (3): Kansas, Kansas St, Oklahoma St
MWC (3): New Mexico, UNLV, Colorado St
ACC (2): Duke, Miami
Pac-12 (2): Arizona, Oregon
A-10 (2): Butler, St Louis
SEC (1): Florida
WCC (1): Gonzaga
MVC (1): Wichita St
CUSA (1): Memphis
20 other automatic bids

The waiting list (down to 6 teams):
UCLA, Minnesota, North Carolina St, Creighton, San Diego St, Cincinnati

The bubble: 31 teams for 14 spots this week. Dropping a team or two down a notch.

Bubble in: VCU, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Missouri, Colorado St, Middle Tennessee St*, LaSalle
Next 4 in: California, Belmont*, Temple, Villanova, St Mary's
Last 4 in: Virginia, Iowa St, Kentucky, Akron*, Arizona St

Last 4 out: St John's, Mississippi, Maryland, Louisiana Tech*, Indiana St
Next 4 out: Baylor, Boise St, Alabama, Charlotte
The consideration board: Bucknell*, Massachusetts, Stanford, Tennessee, Iowa, Air Force, Xavier, BYU, Southern Miss, Arkansas
Off the consideration board: Valparaiso*, South Dakota St*, Stephen F Austin*, Washington, Wyoming, Northern Iowa, Richmond, New Mexico St, Detroit, Florida St
This is the approximate NIT bubble cutoff: Ohio, Texas A&M, Denver, Providence, LSU, Santa Clara, Eastern Kentucky, North Dakota St


Notes on the bracket:
1) I wanted to throw up when I got to about team 65. When I got to 66, I nearly gave up. Feel free to argue anyone in those last 3 spots. Go ahead, I won't stop you. Indiana St, incredulously, is still sitting there. Fact is they have a signature win that no one around them can match.
2) Holy crap the SEC is awful. Like 2012 Pac-12 awful.
3) I'm putting a team under .500 in a conference in my lockbox. Deal with it.

[TheAsianSensation]

Just a reaction as I build a bracket...

Does anyone buy into the theory that the committee rigs matchups to create fun matchups, or even pair up mid majors against each other to get rid of them?

Let me know. I have strong feelings. This is a litmus test to see who is a smart cookie and who isn't.