Updated Arch Madness probabilities - Feb 24

[MVCfans]

I wasn't anticipating the need for an update until after the games on Wednesday, but the change in non-con SOS required Hacksaw to do some quick work.

Here is a link to the updated probabilities: www.mvcfans.com

[TheAsianSensation]

Boy, Wichita. So how does it feel to possibly lose the 1 seed in Arch Madness because you were on the unlucky side of the BracketBuster draw?

Thank god that thing's over. And I think Elgin made a minor mistake in not realizing BB would have a significant effect on a tiebreaker for the league standings. You want that tiebreaker not to be subject to ESPN-related noise like that.

[jaybydna]

Boy, Wichita. So how does it feel to possibly lose the 1 seed in Arch Madness because you were on the unlucky side of the BracketBuster draw?

Thank god that thing's over. And I think Elgin made a minor mistake in not realizing BB would have a significant effect on a tiebreaker for the league standings. You want that tiebreaker not to be subject to ESPN-related noise like that.

I was going to post and ask you earlier in the week and ask you why you has wsu ahead of cu, but I didn't want to catch the wrath of the more insecure posters. Truth is our profile keeps getting better as we get worse. Wisconsin and Akron are rocking, cal is almost ranked, and yesterday Nebraska, st. Joes, Akron, cal, Uab, and Boise st all won. Our RPI went up almost 10 spots.

Does cu deserve it the way we are playing? Not a chance. But blind profiles are a lot closer than people think.

[TheAsianSensation]

Boy, Wichita. So how does it feel to possibly lose the 1 seed in Arch Madness because you were on the unlucky side of the BracketBuster draw?

Thank god that thing's over. And I think Elgin made a minor mistake in not realizing BB would have a significant effect on a tiebreaker for the league standings. You want that tiebreaker not to be subject to ESPN-related noise like that.

I was going to post and ask you earlier in the week and ask you why you has wsu ahead of cu, but I didn't want to catch the wrath of the more insecure posters. Truth is our profile keeps getting better as we get worse. Wisconsin and Akron are rocking, cal is almost ranked, and yesterday Nebraska, st. Joes, Akron, cal, Uab, and Boise st all won. Our RPI went up almost 10 spots.

Does cu deserve it the way we are playing? Not a chance. But blind profiles are a lot closer than people think.

Your sked does look better, and I think you could argue your collection of wins are a little better. Not a lot, mind you, but N-Wisconsin is the best one.

But your own current form matters too, and WSU has the trump card there. Also, they're a little better vs. RPI Top 50 (3-0 against 3-3) and Top 100 (8-3 against 7-5).

Essentially, it's pretty close. I'll probably keep WSU about a seed line ahead of Creighton. And really, the blind profiles are pretty close. That's why they're only a seed line apart

[Snaggletooth]

Boy, Wichita. So how does it feel to possibly lose the 1 seed in Arch Madness because you were on the unlucky side of the BracketBuster draw?

It had nothing to do with bracketbusters. MVC made a mistake. CU non-conference schedule was better pre- and post-bracketbuster.

[pafan]

It had nothing to do with bracketbusters. MVC made a mistake. CU non-conference schedule was better pre- and post-bracketbuster.

Please explain what mistake was made, and why everyone (including the independent media and stats gurus) made the same mistake right up until this morning.

[CBB_Fan]

I like the idea of using OOC scheduling as a tiebreaker. I dislike the implementation. I think it would be much smarter to use non-conference RPI as opposed to simply SoS. That way, simply getting a better team for your Bracketbusters game wouldn't jump you ahead in the tiebreaker; you would have to win your games to get any benefit.

FYI, Wichita State's OOC RPI is 11th in the country. Creighton's is 19th. Iowa's is 100th, despite having the #17 SoS. The only team with a really good OOC RPI is Indiana State at 45th in the nation, though they did have the 28th best schedule.

[jaybydna]

I like the idea of using OOC scheduling as a tiebreaker. I dislike the implementation. I think it would be much smarter to use non-conference RPI as opposed to simply SoS. That way, simply getting a better team for your Bracketbusters game wouldn't jump you ahead in the tiebreaker; you would have to win your games to get any benefit.

FYI, Wichita State's OOC RPI is 11th in the country. Creighton's is 19th. Iowa's is 100th, despite having the #17 SoS. The only team with a really good OOC RPI is Indiana State at 45th in the nation, though they did have the 28th best schedule.

I believe we should go alphabetically by school name, or anything else that would suit my cause.

The best team is WSU and WSU should have the tie breaker, but they don't, and no one was complaining about the tie breaker last week.

Won't matter anyway. CU loses by 12 on Saturday unless they figure something out.

[Snaggletooth]

It had nothing to do with bracketbusters. MVC made a mistake. CU non-conference schedule was better pre- and post-bracketbuster.

Please explain what mistake was made, and why everyone (including the independent media and stats gurus) made the same mistake right up until this morning.

Well, I can only imagine that somebody misread or typed wrong the real numbers. The media has just been parroting what the MVC has released.

You can do some very simple calculations and see that before bracketbuster CU SOS was stronger than WSU. Also common sense also tells you that 1 game in 13 game schedule is not going to have that huge of a bump.

[Red]

I'm predicting 6 Illinois St will play 3 Creighton. I'd love that matchup right now.