by CBB_Fan » March 18th, 2013, 2:54 pm
Ken Pomeroy gives Creighton a 63.8% chance of making the second round, Wichita State a 27.5% chance. KenPom has LOVED Pitt all year though, and his Log5 of the NCAA gives them the 8th best chance of capturing the title. You heard that correctly; Pitt is favored over 60 other teams and is behind just Florida, Louisville, Indiana, Gonzaga, Ohio State, Duke, and Kansas.
Match-up wise, Wichita State is playing themselves. Pitt is a defense first team that can really rebound the ball, but struggles to score at times. They have better efficiency numbers than Wichita State, and they probably deserved a 5/6 seed, but I wouldn't be surprised if Wichita State out-shot them (we are very off and on). Pittsburgh might be looking ahead to Gonzaga, and virtually no one will pick Wichita State to win, which is perfect. First to 60 wins, but I don't think either team will make it that far. I'm not even worried about Gonzaga; we'll cross that road when we get to it.
Creighton will get a decently tough draw. Cincinnati has a strong backcourt, which could be a challenge for Creighton, but they don't really have the post players to cover McDermott and Echenique. If they beat Cincinnati, they will likely get Duke, and Duke is a GOOD match up for Creighton. Duke relies a lot on out shooting people, and Creighton can out shoot anyone. Creighton won't be favored because of Plumlee, but they will beat Duke if they can neutralize the paint and force Duke into a lot of 3s.