DoubleJayAlum wrote:rlh04d wrote:I'm very confident that WSU can join the A-10 if they wished. I'm not confident that the A-10 is worth joining if Saint Louis and Dayton leave, though.
For the first sentence, I'd say it depends on who you meant by "they" (since there was no antecedent to this pronoun, it is impossible to tell).
If by using "they" you meant WSU, I think you are wrong. Until the uncertainty around UD and SLU is resolved, don't look for the A10 to have any interest in schools west of its current boundaries. The A10s other members don't want to go that far west and some of them can't afford it. It is one thing to go west when you can book more than one game per trip (e.g., SLu and WSu or SLU and Butler), but another thing entirely when you can't. If a conference has a big TV package, the costs are not an issue.
If it is confirmed that UD and SLU are leaving, don't look for the A10 to have any interest in western schools for the conceivable future.
If by "they" you meant the A10, I'd agree, but think the point is moot because the A10 has no wishes to add western schools right now.
By "they" I mean the Wichita State administration.
As I've already pointed out, Wichita State is a better program than Saint Louis. The only thing Saint Louis is a better program in is market size. WSU has contributed $14 million to the MVC in the last ten years in NCAA shares alone ... Saint Louis has contributed less than $5 million to the A-10 in that timeframe. WSU a major financial winner -- obviously the Final Four is a statistical anomaly, but I think it's pretty fair to assume WSU would add at least $10 million over a 10 year time frame (what we would have added had we gone out to Gonzaga this year) -- that more than covers any increase in travel costs.
My assumption regarding the A-10 is two-front: If the A-10 wishes to keep Saint Louis and Dayton in the conference, as two of their stronger programs, adding closer geographic programs will be good, and they need to increase the strength of the conference, and WSU is the only program that can come close to replacing Butler and Xavier that the A-10 has available to them. Both of these things are positives to their possibility of keeping those programs long term. If the A-10 is going to lose them, they're going to really need good programs to avoid falling down to a one-bid conference and essentially becoming the CAA. Adding WSU and another western program would essentially create little to no change for the conference. The travel costs of playing at WSU compared to playing at Saint Louis are essentially nothing. Even if they lose Saint Louis then, the conference would actually be better (competitively) with the addition of WSU, and there wouldn't be much of a financial change. It would be a trade of higher RPI and more NCAA shares for a loss of media market size hurting TV deal prospects.
And I am not saying that WSU would be added by itself as potentially the only western program if those two left -- obviously that'd be illogical. I would assume at least one other Valley team would be added as well.
What I'm basically saying is that you'd either replace Saint Louis and Dayton with Wichita State and, say, Bradley, or you would add WSU and Bradley to keep Saint Louis and Dayton. I have no idea if Bradley would be the best choice there.
And so, as I said, I'm fairly confident that would be the best case scenario from the A-10's perspective. Look at it as the A-10 ... what move would be better for them to maintain their current level? The only other move is to to accept their geographic constraints and that they're going to become the CAA and add more schools from that conference. The best case for the A-10 would be to have Saint Louis, VCU, and WSU as a core top of the conference, or VCU and WSU if the other left. There is no other program the A-10 can add that they could realistically expect would be anywhere near the top of the conference.