Conference Officials plan to visit Belmont Denver & Oral Bob

[rlh04d]

I think Belmont has a lot of potential. There's only one "major" D1 program in Tennessee, and there's not much fan interference from professional sports (certainly not as much as Denver). Belmont is also nicely located to a lot of decent recruiting areas and would have a lot of potential to improve by being in the Valley.

Denver certainly has the most professional competition, but Nashville still has the NFL to deal with. At least no NBA team to compete with in an overlapping season, though.

However, Belmont wouldn't be the biggest D1 program in their own city (Vanderbilt). Nor would ORU (Tulsa). Denver would be the biggest college program in Denver. Granted, Boulder isn't far away (40 minutes -- MTSU is the same distance away, although obviously a smaller draw), but at least they aren't in second place in college basketball for their city. I'd also say that Tennessee and Vanderbilt are much bigger competition than the two Colorado schools.

Denver metro area is also about a million people bigger than Nashville.

I'd be happy with either of those, though. I think ORU is the weakest of the three, but, like I just said ... I'd be very happy with the Valley if we expanded to 12 and added all three.

[IllinoisState]

All we can hope is that, since we are looking at larger markets, that we can get the same number of people interested even though it will be a smaller percentage.

I don't understand why Oral Roberts is still being talked about. They are nowhere near what we are looking for in a team. The only thing that they have going for them is the Tulsa market which still isn't that big.

It's interesting how so many have different opinions of schools. Personally think ORU may be the best fit of any of these schools being discussed. Geographically, they make some sense-former MVC city, and close to WSU & MSU. They have better fan support than pretty much any of these schools, and that's been playing in conferences with few opponents their fans would even care about (Summit and now Southland). MBB they've been strong, Scott Sutton is a good coach, they've played tough non-conference schedules and they've been a thorn in the side of bigger name teams often. And the rest of their athletics have been decent too-typically were at or near the top of the Summit all-sports standings. Baseball has been good, WBB has been decent. The market isn't Chicago but Tulsa isn't bad.

Biggest question mark about ORU is the school's stability, it has had rough patches in the past, and how the MVC decision makers feel about that is not an insignificant thing, could keep them out. But competitively think they could come in the MVC now in most sports and be a solid member. None of these candidates is perfect, but personally like ORU's balance of success, support and market better than the others, which either have success & market but no support (not a good sign) or market but no success and no support (of which one can at least hope there's potential for growth).

Oral Roberts just moved down in conferences so I don't know why they should move up from their old conference. I'm not sure that they sponsor all of the MVC's sports so that doesn't help. Their budget is also not as big as the rest of the MVC's. Their basketball arena seems nice and holds 10,575, but their attendance does not seem stable and seems to be on the way down. As much as expanding would be nice, they don't bring enough to the table to warrant bringing them in and the travel.

I would also like to add that that the school itself is a hotbed of controversy and as much as people on this forum say that politics shouldn't be taken into consideration, it's too much for a conference where schools don't make waves.

They all have good rhings going for them. Why not all 3? A lot have been in favor of a 12 team conference.

I would prefer to add one or no schools right now and then wait a year to see where things are. Our options aren't very good and I don't think that the schools that we are considering now would be unavailable in a year. In fact, once things have settled down, maybe more school options would open up.

[rlh04d]

I would prefer to add one or no schools right now and then wait a year to see where things are. Our options aren't very good and I don't think that the schools that we are considering now would be unavailable in a year. In fact, once things have settled down, maybe more school options would open up.

I don't see any of them being unavailable in a year, but I also don't see us having a better option than we have right now.

[IllinoisState]

I would prefer to add one or no schools right now and then wait a year to see where things are. Our options aren't very good and I don't think that the schools that we are considering now would be unavailable in a year. In fact, once things have settled down, maybe more school options would open up.

I don't see any of them being unavailable in a year, but I also don't see us having a better option than we have right now.

Since I don't see the MVC getting picked apart in this next year it wouldn't hurt to wait.

[rlh04d]

I would prefer to add one or no schools right now and then wait a year to see where things are. Our options aren't very good and I don't think that the schools that we are considering now would be unavailable in a year. In fact, once things have settled down, maybe more school options would open up.

I don't see any of them being unavailable in a year, but I also don't see us having a better option than we have right now.

Since I don't see the MVC getting picked apart in this next year it wouldn't hurt to wait.

Maybe not.

However, if Wichita State leaves in a year, that might severely impact the Valley's ability to get another school. It's already taken a step back without Creighton ... WSU would be another big step back. Suddenly the MVC might not look much better than the other conferences around us ... if at all.

Horizon was 12th in conference RPI this year, compared to the Valley at 8. WAC was 13. Lose Creighton and WSU and the Valley is absolutely not a top 10 conference anymore, and might start falling behind other regional conferences.

Add when you're in a position of strength (Final Four), not weakness.

[TheAsianSensation]

The CAA binked 2 final fours, a few at-large bids, and grew into a "position of strength". That led to them trying to flex their muscle in realignment once Ga State and ODU left for football reasons. The best they could do was Charleston, and VCU left and now GMU is leaving too.

Be wary, Valley.

As an aside, a Valley without WSU is still top 10 I think. Still > Horizon. Still > MAAC. Still > MAC. WAC is about to fall apart. CAA already has. Seriously, there's not a lot out there.

[IllinoisState]

I don't see any of them being unavailable in a year, but I also don't see us having a better option than we have right now.

Since I don't see the MVC getting picked apart in this next year it wouldn't hurt to wait.

Maybe not.

However, if Wichita State leaves in a year, that might severely impact the Valley's ability to get another school. It's already taken a step back without Creighton ... WSU would be another big step back. Suddenly the MVC might not look much better than the other conferences around us ... if at all.

Horizon was 12th in conference RPI this year, compared to the Valley at 8. WAC was 13. Lose Creighton and WSU and the Valley is absolutely not a top 10 conference anymore, and might start falling behind other regional conferences.

Add when you're in a position of strength (Final Four), not weakness.

I'm not optimistic about what is out there. I hope for Denver, New Mexico State, and for us to try and pillage a team from either the A-10, CAA, or Northeast.

[rlh04d]

As an aside, a Valley without WSU is still top 10 I think. Still > Horizon. Still > MAAC. Still > MAC. WAC is about to fall apart. CAA already has. Seriously, there's not a lot out there.

I'm not really sure how you think a Valley without WSU is still top 10.

The Valley was #8 this year with WSU and Creighton ... but we were #9 without WSU's Final Four run slipping the Valley ahead of the SEC. Regular season wise, with both teams this was the #9 conference.

B1G, B12, ACC, MWC, Pac-12, SEC, and Big Priest will all be ahead of us. That puts us at absolutely no better than #8.

Conference USA has essentially just added UConn, USF, Louisville, and Cincinnati. Without those four, C-USA was significantly behind us with both WSU and Creighton. With them, they jump ahead of us next year, even if we still had Creighton. Calculate their RPI out for this year and their average RPI would have been .559, tying them with the ACC. Obviously losing Louisville after next season will drop that, but they're still likely going to be ahead of us in the future.

A-10? Probably would fall behind us if Saint Louis and Dayton leave, but that isn't guaranteed. With them, I think they're still ahead of us next year, and definitely ahead of the Valley if WSU leaves. Adjusting for the teams that left and George Mason joining, next year's A-10 had an average RPI of .533. That would be ahead of us this year without Creighton.

That's nine conferences ahead of the Valley next year, with WSU. Meanwhile, the WCC was very close to us last season. The Valley is a borderline top 10 team WITH WSU next year.

So let's do a completely unrealistic look at the Valley without WSU/Creighton: the Valley's conference RPI drops to .5195, well below the WCC at .531. That doesn't take into account the benefit of WSU and Creighton's high RPI on the RPIs of the rest of the conference. The Valley is now out of the top ten and the Horizon is closer to the Valley than the Valley is to the WCC. Just eliminating Creighton, and still giving the Valley teams the benefit to their RPIs from playing Creighton, the Valley would have been slightly behind the WCC this year with an average of .530.

Meanwhile, of the teams being discussed as replacements, only the three in this thread's title would help the Valley in RPI terms. Replace Creighton and WSU with UMKC and UIC and the Valley RPI average drops to .508, and the Horizon absolutely starts breathing down the Valley's neck.

[CBB_Fan]

I'd be in favor of Denver or Belmont by themselves, or all three schools. I'd consider all these schools a better option than the Chicago schools, Valpo, or UMKC.

I like Denver because they are a good team, with a fair amount of support (>5000 fans in seats). I could see them being a top half team in the short term.

Belmont would likely be an even better team, but they only average about 2,000. I think they could be an at-large quality team in a couple of years. They do lose their top three scorers to graduation though.

ORU isn't quite at that level, but I still would support them as #12 above the other options.

[TheAsianSensation]

As an aside, a Valley without WSU is still top 10 I think. Still > Horizon. Still > MAAC. Still > MAC. WAC is about to fall apart. CAA already has. Seriously, there's not a lot out there.

I'm not really sure how you think a Valley without WSU is still top 10.

The Valley was #8 this year with WSU and Creighton ... but we were #9 without WSU's Final Four run slipping the Valley ahead of the SEC. Regular season wise, with both teams this was the #9 conference.

B1G, B12, ACC, MWC, Pac-12, SEC, and Big Priest will all be ahead of us. That puts us at absolutely no better than #8.

Conference USA has essentially just added UConn, USF, Louisville, and Cincinnati. Without those four, C-USA was significantly behind us with both WSU and Creighton. With them, they jump ahead of us next year, even if we still had Creighton. Calculate their RPI out for this year and their average RPI would have been .559, tying them with the ACC. Obviously losing Louisville after next season will drop that, but they're still likely going to be ahead of us in the future.

A-10? Probably would fall behind us if Saint Louis and Dayton leave, but that isn't guaranteed. With them, I think they're still ahead of us next year, and definitely ahead of the Valley if WSU leaves. Adjusting for the teams that left and George Mason joining, next year's A-10 had an average RPI of .533. That would be ahead of us this year without Creighton.

That's nine conferences ahead of the Valley next year, with WSU. Meanwhile, the WCC was very close to us last season. The Valley is a borderline top 10 team WITH WSU next year.

So let's do a completely unrealistic look at the Valley without WSU/Creighton: the Valley's conference RPI drops to .5195, well below the WCC at .531. That doesn't take into account the benefit of WSU and Creighton's high RPI on the RPIs of the rest of the conference. The Valley is now out of the top ten and the Horizon is closer to the Valley than the Valley is to the WCC. Just eliminating Creighton, and still giving the Valley teams the benefit to their RPIs from playing Creighton, the Valley would have been slightly behind the WCC this year with an average of .530.

Meanwhile, of the teams being discussed as replacements, only the three in this thread's title would help the Valley in RPI terms. Replace Creighton and WSU with UMKC and UIC and the Valley RPI average drops to .508, and the Horizon absolutely starts breathing down the Valley's neck.

I think the Valley was actually a bit down in terms of the RPI this year from 3rd on back. I expect the others to rebound a bit in the computer numbers. Teams other than Creighton and WSU have ascended the RPI.

Conferences definitely ahead of us: B1G, Big East, AAC, ACC, SEC, Pac-12, Big 12 in normal years for them. Just listing them out so I don't confuse CUSA with AAC, etc. New CUSA is going to be awful while AAC will be plenty fine for awhile.

Probably ahead: MWC

That leaves us in a competition for 9th with the A-10 and WCC. Honestly, there's so much movement going on there that it's tough to project out. But this year they lose Temple, Charlotte, Butler, and Xavier for sure, UMass is a flight risk (football), VCU/Richmond/Dayton/St Louis are all flight risks (Big East)...there's some big big blows coming. I think MVC should have enough to hold them off - that's a lot of ammo they're losing. A-10 is the one in danger of falling out of the top 12 in my book. As for WCC, it's borderline every year, bottom of that league has failed to step up. I think MVC should be able to beat them half the time.

I also think you overestimate the leagues below us. Last year was a good year for the Horizon in the computers, and it would take a pretty bad Valley year 3-10 for them to get caught by the Horizon's good year. And there's nobody behind them that's even remotely a threat.

Obviously, this all changes if the Valley adds UMKC or UIC. That albatross hurts. Oral Bob and Denver are probably neutral effects, or a small bonus in Denver's case in some years. Belmont might help, in the short term at least.