Is the Valley a 1-bid conference now?

by **CBB_Fan** » April 13th, 2013, 9:47 pm

Assuming that the rumored Chicago additions will join the MVC, do you think the conference will be strong enough to get an at-large bid in the near future?

I've made a post about this on the main Shocker forums, but here are the conference RPI rankings using 2012 stats with teams in their 2013 conferences. This is assuming UIC and Loyola-Chicago are in the MVC.

1 B1G- 0.5772
2 ACC- 0.5662
3 MWC- 0.5635
4 BE- 0.5596
5 Big 12- 0.5584
6 AAC- 0.5583
7 Pac 12- 0.5546
8 SEC- 0.5419
9 A10- 0.5397
10 WCC- 0.5285
11 MVC- 0.5174

For comparison, C-USA was .5168 this year, and the Horizon League would have been .5059 without the Chicago schools, though both leagues will be lower this year because they bring in some lower quality teams.

Personally, I think the conference will need to schedule and win a lot of tough games OOC to have a chance. In order for teams to get at-large bids or decent seeding in the NCAA tournament, they will need to sweep the low end teams (whereas now you can afford maybe one loss to a team like SIU last season). IMHO, it doesn't look the MVC will see at-large bids most years, except as a rare exception.

For those wondering what the Shockers might think about this, consider that the A10 would have a .5450 RPI with Wichita State (the MVC would drop to .513 in that case).

**Sponsor**

by **da_bears** » April 13th, 2013, 10:03 pm

teams, not conferences get bids. That said, you don't want to ask a MSU fan what we think about the valley when it comes to getting at large bids.... hint: we put no stock in RPI numbers. We have had many top 50 seasons including a RPI of 21 one season and a MVC championship in another and it didn't mean dick to the selection committe. We are fed up with the MVC.

by **TNMSUFAN** » April 13th, 2013, 10:03 pm

Regardless of who we have in the conference it is all about scheduling up and winning some games. People said the same thing when Tulsa left and here we are now with teams making Sweet 16 and Final Four runs. We will be fine...all about winning games.

by **CBB_Fan** » April 13th, 2013, 10:26 pm

I know that it is up to individual teams to get at-large bids, but a large portion of a team's RPI comes from the teams in their conference (and their OOC performance).

I just think it will be very hard for an MVC to build a NCAA level resume. You'll have a lot of trap games against lower end teams, and not many chances for a Top-50 win. And playing a lot of 100+ RPI teams will hurt your RPI even if you win the games.

by **TNMSUFAN** » April 13th, 2013, 10:35 pm

CBB_Fan wrote:I know that it is up to individual teams to get at-large bids, but a large portion of a team's RPI comes from the teams in their conference (and their OOC performance).

I just think it will be very hard for an MVC to build a NCAA level resume. You'll have a lot of trap games against lower end teams, and not many chances for a Top-50 win. And playing a lot of 100+ RPI teams will hurt your RPI even if you win the games.

I don't remember anyone in the Valley helping the Bears get an at-large just 2 years ago when we won the conference with a 15-3 record...2 wins over Wichita and 2 wins over CU and it didn't matter. If we beat Tenn or OK State that year we probably get in...all about winning games against the right teams.

by **CBB_Fan** » April 13th, 2013, 10:49 pm

TNMSUFAN wrote:
CBB_Fan wrote:I know that it is up to individual teams to get at-large bids, but a large portion of a team's RPI comes from the teams in their conference (and their OOC performance).

I just think it will be very hard for an MVC to build a NCAA level resume. You'll have a lot of trap games against lower end teams, and not many chances for a Top-50 win. And playing a lot of 100+ RPI teams will hurt your RPI even if you win the games.

I don't remember anyone in the Valley helping the Bears get an at-large just 2 years ago when we won the conference with a 15-3 record...2 wins over Wichita and 2 wins over CU and it didn't matter. If we beat Tenn or OK State that year we probably get in...all about winning games against the right teams.

That may be true in that situation. However, look at Wichita State this year. Replace Creighton and 2 OOC games with games against Loyola-Chicago and UIC, and Wichita State probably doesn't make the tournament.

Conferences outside the Top 10 just don't get auto-bids, with the exception of the WCC (which is three top 50 teams and a bunch of scrubs). In the last 6 years, conferences outside the Top 10 have gotten 10 autobids. Five of those at-large bids were teams that dominated their conference and lost in their conference tournament.

All told, if you count the top of the WCC with the top 10 conferences, there have only been about 2 or 3 occasions where a conference outside the Top 10 has had two NCAA level teams (read: teams with NCAA resumes).

by **TNMSUFAN** » April 13th, 2013, 11:04 pm

2008 - 1 bid
2009 - 1 bid
2010 - 1 bid
2011 - 1 bid
2012 - 2 bids
2013 - 2 bids

1 bid league 4 of the last 6 years with Creighton...all about getting everyone to schedule up and win some of those games

by **rlh04d** » April 13th, 2013, 11:07 pm

CBB_Fan wrote:For those wondering what the Shockers might think about this, consider that the A10 would have a .5450 RPI with Wichita State (the MVC would drop to .513 in that case).

I didn't include UIC when I said the Valley would be .513 without us ... that's just with Loyola. The Valley drops to .499 with UIC as well.

by **rlh04d** » April 13th, 2013, 11:07 pm

da_bears wrote:teams, not conferences get bids. That said, you don't want to ask a MSU fan what we think about the valley when it comes to getting at large bids.... hint: we put no stock in RPI numbers. We have had many top 50 seasons including a RPI of 21 one season and a MVC championship in another and it didn't mean dick to the selection committe. We are fed up with the MVC.

Hey, pst.

Want to go join the A-10 with us?

Keep it quiet.

And yeah, we had 24 wins and a top 50 RPI twice as NIT teams in the last four years, although nothing to the insane caliber of that one year they left you out.

by **rlh04d** » April 13th, 2013, 11:13 pm

da_bears wrote:teams, not conferences get bids.

For the record, though, you had the misfortune of winning the Valley in the one year that the Valley wasn't a top 10 conference. We were the #11 conference that year.

And I think that has a lot to do with it. When you fall out of the top 10 in conferences, your resume doesn't get the same respect, even if you have the same wins and RPI as you had before it. Your conference perception hurts you ... and it absolutely killed you guys that year.

And we're now looking at being out of the top 10 long-term.