m-v-c wrote:Most of your points agree with. But personally think a lot of the demographics stuff, while it holds some truth overall in higher education, in the case of the MVC is overanalysis. Think it's just as likely the MVC picked Loyola/Chicago because 1) it was a bigger city, 2) it was a city in the conference's footprint already, 3) it's a city where the league has a TV partner, 4) Loyola is a private school similar to Creighton, and most importantly 5) of the schools they looked at, they feel Loyola is clearly the best one in terms of its academics, finances and facilities, and they feel the school has tremendous potential. Don't think it had anything to do with trying to push the conference further east so they can compete for the same kids A-10 and CAA schools are recruiting. The MVC and its members know their niche; occasionally a member may outgrow the conference, but overall this is a Midwest basketball-first conference, and the best Midwest basketball-first conference. As far as D-I athletics go, pretty much every school already casts its recruiting nets nationally to a degree and also recruits in areas where its assistants have contacts. Changing conferences has little to no effect on this for any school.
It is true, schools in the Midwest in particular are worried about a population drain in their areas hurting their local recruiting population in the future. But this is felt most at the small college level, where schools are fighting to survive and are battling cheaper Juco options and state schools. And in the case of leagues like the Big 10 claiming they're expanding because of 'demographics'...giant smokescreen. Demographics=the further they expand, the more homes they can get their cable network on basic cable and reap the monies from it. Big 10 schools are national brand names, it doesn't matter if they have a few less recruitables in their backyard, they will always have plenty of kids throwing themselves at them from across the country. The Big 10 never 'needed' to add Rutgers and Maryland. Ohio can slice itself in half in the next 20 years and Ohio State will survive just fine. They 'wanted' to because Delany's goal is to continue growing his TV network.
The main reason for much of the expansion, it doesn't come down to demographics. It comes down to TV contracts for a few. For the rest, it's simple monkey-see, monkey-do. Colleges and conferences see the 'big boys' do it, so they think they need to too. It has trickled right down to the small college level, NCAA II & III and the NAIA, even these schools are all shopping themselves around. It doesn't even have anything to do with TV contracts there, but this is what schools have been conditioned to do-always be on the lookout for what they might think is the slightest bit better and go for it. Much of it is panic and reactionary, and not thinking 20 years down the line. For some it has worked, for others it hasn't, but the failures of some hasn't deterred anyone from thinking 'don't worry, WE'LL be the one to succeed beyond everyone's wildest dreams'.
I think that's a good point to the extent that at the power conference level, demographics and TV contracts go hand-in-hand. Still, even though the MVC doesn't have its own TV network like the Big Ten, it's just a factor that's very glaring for the MVC specifically. Being a Midwest-centric conference has worked for the MVC in the past, but it's up for debate whether that would work in the future. I don't disagree with your rationale regarding with Loyola at all and it gets into what I was saying with the network effects - the Chicago market specifically is where there is more potential value added for the MVC because alums from Illinois State, Bradley, SIU, Drake and UNI already live there in disproportionate numbers compared to, say, Denver or Nashville (which would be adding good-sized markets to the MVC but they don't really tie into a preexisting critical mass of MVC fans). This same type of logic drove the Big Ten's decision to add Rutgers, too. Delany isn't stupid - he knows full well that Rutgers *alone* cannot "deliver" the NYC market. What he's banking on is the local Rutgers presence plus the Penn State/Ohio State/Michigan/other Big Ten alums that all live in the NYC market will be enough to get the Big Ten Network onto basic cable there. The theory is that Rutgers will be the vessel that will enhance the preexisting Big Ten presence in the NYC market. Maybe this will work and maybe it won't (as I have written many times that I'm much more skeptical of this working compared to the Maryland addition, but I understand what the Big Ten is trying to do here. If the bet works, then it has *massive* financial upside. Loyola being the conduit to bring the rest of the MVC into Chicago is a similar way of thinking, albeit on a smaller scale. I don't know if it will work, either, but the potential of massive upside compared to a "safe" addition is sometimes enough to drive decisions, especially when there isn't a clear no-brainer alternative, anyway.
