Early Valley Predictions

[Wufan]

I would be careful pointing out that the Shox 18 year drought is 3 WHOLE YEARS longer than your current one. You getting in within the next 3 years is far from a guarantee.

Nothing like IlSt. fans. Only then can see a roster that loses one of the most dominant big men in the conference and is absolutely packed with unknowns and think they can contend.

It doesn't really matter though when you only have two players on your entire team. Brown and Carmichael. So yeah they were good, but what did anyone else do? Nothing, so it doesn't really matter. I would rather have it where all five people on the court and people on the bench are capable of doing something than just have only two people doing things. So hopefully that is what all of these new people do. Just because they are unknown to you guys doesn't mean anything.

We know them more because they are our recruits whereas you guys know your recruits more than we know your recruits because we are all fans of our own teams so basically we know our own recruits the best. That is why our recruits are unknown to everyone else except for us, so just because this is the case does not mean that we can not contend. We will be picked low based on returners, but picks don't mean anything. In 2011-12 we were picked eighth and finished in a logjam tie for 3rd, advanced to the final of the conference tourney, made the NIT and won a game there. So this year we can be picked as low and do just as well or better. Also our inexperience is similar to that year where we will have only one senior and that year we had 0.

So I should really stay out of this, but…

While the JUCOs you are bringing in are good (three in the top 25-50 range?), this is what WSU has brought in over the past couple of years:

Darius Carter - top 10 prospect, First Team AA
Kadeem Coleby - top 50 prospect (and walk-on)
Chadrack Lufile - top 50 prospect
Joe Mitchell - top 50 prospect, Third Team AA (and walk-on)
Nick Wiggis - top 10 prospect, First Team AA
Cleanthony Early - top 10 prospect, two time First Team AA, two time POY
Carl Hall - top 10 prospect, First Team AA
James Anacreon - NR
Joe Ragland - top 100 prospect, First Team AA
Ben Smith - top 50 prospect, Second Team AA

That's four years of JUCO recruiting. While you may know your recruits and feel good about them, EVERYONE that cares is aware of what WSU is doing. We go after All-Americans…that would be SEVEN out of ten. Also four top 10 JUCOs.

It should be noted that WSU has had JUCO success by working in the JUCOs late in the first year and starting a core group of traditional students. In 2010-11 we started Williams/Ragland, Murry, Hatch, Ellis, Durley (five of six four year guys) and won the NIT. In 11-12, WSU started Ragland (JUCO), Kyles, Murry, Smith (JUCO), Stutz. That's two JUCO AAs and three four year seniors. Last year we started Armstead (transfer), Baker, Cotton/Wessel, Orukpe/Early (JUCO), and Hall (JUCO). That's two JUCO AAs, a 24 year old transfer, and two underclassmen.

How many JUCO AAs does Ill St have? Ours generally spend a semester warming the bench…

[ilstu2013]

So I should really stay out of this, but…

While the JUCOs you are bringing in are good (three in the top 25-50 range?), this is what WSU has brought in over the past couple of years:

Darius Carter - top 10 prospect, First Team AA
Kadeem Coleby - top 50 prospect (and walk-on)
Chadrack Lufile - top 50 prospect
Joe Mitchell - top 50 prospect, Third Team AA (and walk-on)
Nick Wiggis - top 10 prospect, First Team AA
Cleanthony Early - top 10 prospect, two time First Team AA, two time POY
Carl Hall - top 10 prospect, First Team AA
James Anacreon - NR
Joe Ragland - top 100 prospect, First Team AA
Ben Smith - top 50 prospect, Second Team AA

That's four years of JUCO recruiting. While you may know your recruits and feel good about them, EVERYONE that cares is aware of what WSU is doing. We go after All-Americans…that would be SEVEN out of ten. Also four top 10 JUCOs.

It should be noted that WSU has had JUCO success by working in the JUCOs late in the first year and starting a core group of traditional students. In 2010-11 we started Williams/Ragland, Murry, Hatch, Ellis, Durley (five of six four year guys) and won the NIT. In 11-12, WSU started Ragland (JUCO), Kyles, Murry, Smith (JUCO), Stutz. That's two JUCO AAs and three four year seniors. Last year we started Armstead (transfer), Baker, Cotton/Wessel, Orukpe/Early (JUCO), and Hall (JUCO). That's two JUCO AAs, a 24 year old transfer, and two freshman.

How many JUCO AAs does Ill St have? Ours generally spend a semester warming the bench…

I wouldn't really worry about staying out of things if I were you because unlike others, your arguments actually make sense and have merit. You've brought in a lot of JUCO products many of which are higher than ours and most fans of other Valley schools were happy to see you guys represent the league in the Final Four, including myself. Just understand that for us at this time it is a step in the right direction and this is a process. Things have changed a lot for the better since Jankovich left and Muller came in. While some of these guys we are bringing in are not as highly ranked as some of these WSU JUCO prospects, they are better than what we brought in under the Jank regime for the most part. Muller is aiming high. That is what is important. Jank just didn't, there's a lot of examples to prove it. Everyone knows how bad our non-conference schedule used to be. It's no coincidence that Muller comes in and the schedule gets way better.

Next year we are hosting DePaul. playing at VCU, playing at Northwestern, hosting Drexel, hosting Dayton and probably more to come that has not been announced. For you, that probably seems ho-hum but for us it's a big deal because of how bad the schedules were that Jank put together. Last year in Muller's first year he was hired so late so he did the best he could with the schedule adding Dayton, Drexel and Louisville which is the best he could do at that time and at least it shows he tried and was aiming high. And now this year he has more control over the following year's schedule now that he's been here for a full year and it is showing. And likewise, he is aiming high with recruiting players too. He's going after guys that are garnering high-major interest which Jank never seemed to do and JUCO guys as well as incoming freshmen that are pretty high ranked. He is also putting his stamp on the program because there's no denying it's his team now. There's going to be barely any Jank recruits here as so few players are returning and so many new guys are coming in. So there's reason to feel positive about this positive change compared to where we had it before.

[valleychamp]

We don't need to convince anyone anything. UNI has been competing very successfully for 10 years.

No, you haven't. You've competed well within the conference. So has UTA in their conference. Utah State has has had far more success within their conference, but that still doesn't make any of them competitive, nationally. You don't have the money and you don't recruit widely enough to build a program to do that. Like I said, I don't know why it bothers you so much. You should embrace what you are. A program that's been a model of consistency in the conference and had 1 outstanding season.

Repeat after me, you don't have the money or support to compete in the long term nationally.

UTA, or whatever other small-time mid-major you would like to associate with UNI to slight them do not compete in the Valley, which is a league that routinely earns multiple bids and at-large berths, of which UNI has played a LARGE part in.

Just because UNI does not take 5 JUCO guys every year does not mean they do not recruit "widely enough". WSU is a different school in a different state with different recruiting philosophies. What they do works for them, and what UNI does works for them as both have been very successful doing so.

UNI has, and will continue to be successful competing within the Valley and nationally.

[mvcfan]

For several years, ISUR had the talent to play at least some on the National scale but Jankovich refused to play. Now you are starting over and seem to have something to work off of. I wish you nothing but success. You are one of the teams who could make some noise.

The only thing that is a concern to me is that you have limited resources to begin with and you spend so much time and money trying to play football (possibly getting into the MAC conference which in a short time will be extinct because the big boys will take their football and go home-dividing from the rest of the conferences-the only conference who has a chance is the MWC in my opinion) and it takes away from your opportunity to become a national contender in basketball.

[valleychamp]

I remind everyone this all started when UNI fan got their collective panties bunched in a wad.

And the point being WSU has greater aspirations than the Valley (which they do).

But still people want to fire back with Valley talk. So be it. You state "Which Wichita State has not been able to do"? Says whom? And compared with whom? Please bring up the 3 day crapshoot as the defining moment in being successful because that just cements my point.

Interesting that you completely scoff at the idea of bringing up a "3 day crapshoot", yet you are totally fine in using the NCAA tournament, a similar crapshoot, as the thesis for your argument as to why WSU is superior to all others.

WSU came together at the right time, and won the right games in the NCAA tournament and made a fabulous run. It does not mean that WSU is better than all others, and it does not mean that other Valley teams were incapable of doing the same. One could argue that WSU's '10, '11, and '12 teams were ALL better than the WSU team of '13. Yet, they did not win the right games at the right times and they did not get hot at the right time in March, and that's just the way it is. Yet, I don't see you writing those teams/seasons off as small-time mid-major contenders that are incapable of competing nationally.

[2livewu]

Wow. I'd offer you a shovel, but you obviously don't need one.

You're comparing the Valley tournament with making the Final Four now? Your inability to see reality has reached a new level of insanity.

It's clear you're incapable of understanding the economics of college basketball. Being a fan of a DII school trying to compete in D1 probably is a good reason why you struggle.

Let's get back on topic.

Barring substantial personnel changes, first and second will be some combination of WSU and ISUB.

3-10 are anyone's guess. I'll say this though; judging from the comments I've read, people are way overvaluing ISUR and UNI and undervaluing Evansville. The Aces return some good size, as much as anyone in the conference and those guys aren't stiffs. Adam Wing is a nice player and a tough competitor and Ballentine can really shoot it. If Marty does a good job (not much reason to think he won't) developing the players he has, Evansville could be handful for most if not all of the Valley.

[hot nuts]

If my dad were alive he could certainly beat up your dad...and yes, I drive a large pickup truck to compensate for the inequities my creator bestowed within my britches.

[Redbird Recon]

I laughed when the national pundits made the Shockers out to be some rag-tag bunch of obscure recruits. FVV was billed as the best prep recruit in Illinois for his class, and almost all of the jucos were highly acclaimed; HM offers, AA status, etc.

I think Muller has done a good (not great) job this recruiting season. If we add McIntosh this week, we'll be inching toward great. But the reality is, if Johnny leaves, we'll likely be starting 5 new players. No need for Redbird fans to chest pound or hang our heads. Let's just wait and see!

[Wufan]

I think Muller has done a good (not great) job this recruiting season. If we add McIntosh this week, we'll be inching toward great. But the reality is, if Johnny leaves, we'll likely be starting 5 new players.

I agree that the recruiting has been good, but lacks the marque player for completion. The problem is that the "core" is completely gone. While a great recruiting class can sometimes equate to a great season, a good recruiting class without a core group will likely be a big step backwards in year one.

[siufan4life]

I think my post got misunderstood. I talking about Valley teams rarely repeating runs in the NCAAs the year after they made a deep run. I was in no way comparing Final 4's to Sweet Sixteens.