Early Valley Predictions

[Redbird Recon]

I think Muller has done a good (not great) job this recruiting season. If we add McIntosh this week, we'll be inching toward great. But the reality is, if Johnny leaves, we'll likely be starting 5 new players.

I agree that the recruiting has been good, but lacks the marque player for completion. The problem is that the "core" is completely gone. While a great recruiting class can sometimes equate to a great season, a good recruiting class without a core group will likely be a big step backwards in year one.

I agree, but I think people are stretching WSU's success into their own team's realm way too much. That Final 4 run consisting of newcomers in prominent roles was an anomaly.

Bradley was awful when DSE got hurt, and he departed along with 2 other starters. Drake pressed the reset button. Evansville's best returner is a sophomore. Missouri State pulled a 'Charlie Weis' in that their greatest victory was a loss. UNI lost a ton of talent and leadership. Southern Illinois is still clawing back.

Illinois State went 8-10 last season. I expect them to do better than that, not because they are greatly improved but because I expect the Valley to be really down next season. Great time for a rebuilding season IMO.

[Ricardo del Rio]

I wouldn't really worry about staying out of things if I were you because unlike others, your arguments actually make sense and have merit. You've brought in a lot of JUCO products many of which are higher than ours and most fans of other Valley schools were happy to see you guys represent the league in the Final Four, including myself. Just understand that for us at this time it is a step in the right direction and this is a process. Things have changed a lot for the better since Jankovich left and Muller came in. While some of these guys we are bringing in are not as highly ranked as some of these WSU JUCO prospects, they are better than what we brought in under the Jank regime for the most part. Muller is aiming high. That is what is important. Jank just didn't, there's a lot of examples to prove it. Everyone knows how bad our non-conference schedule used to be. It's no coincidence that Muller comes in and the schedule gets way better.

Next year we are hosting DePaul. playing at VCU, playing at Northwestern, hosting Drexel, hosting Dayton and probably more to come that has not been announced. For you, that probably seems ho-hum but for us it's a big deal because of how bad the schedules were that Jank put together. Last year in Muller's first year he was hired so late so he did the best he could with the schedule adding Dayton, Drexel and Louisville which is the best he could do at that time and at least it shows he tried and was aiming high. And now this year he has more control over the following year's schedule now that he's been here for a full year and it is showing. And likewise, he is aiming high with recruiting players too. He's going after guys that are garnering high-major interest which Jank never seemed to do and JUCO guys as well as incoming freshmen that are pretty high ranked. He is also putting his stamp on the program because there's no denying it's his team now. There's going to be barely any Jank recruits here as so few players are returning and so many new guys are coming in. So there's reason to feel positive about this positive change compared to where we had it before.

I live well reasoned posts. Thanks.

[Ricardo del Rio]

I remind everyone this all started when UNI fan got their collective panties bunched in a wad.

And the point being WSU has greater aspirations than the Valley (which they do).

But still people want to fire back with Valley talk. So be it. You state "Which Wichita State has not been able to do"? Says whom? And compared with whom? Please bring up the 3 day crapshoot as the defining moment in being successful because that just cements my point.

Interesting that you completely scoff at the idea of bringing up a "3 day crapshoot", yet you are totally fine in using the NCAA tournament, a similar crapshoot, as the thesis for your argument as to why WSU is superior to all others.

WSU came together at the right time, and won the right games in the NCAA tournament and made a fabulous run. It does not mean that WSU is better than all others, and it does not mean that other Valley teams were incapable of doing the same. One could argue that WSU's '10, '11, and '12 teams were ALL better than the WSU team of '13. Yet, they did not win the right games at the right times and they did not get hot at the right time in March, and that's just the way it is. Yet, I don't see you writing those teams/seasons off as small-time mid-major contenders that are incapable of competing nationally.

You make my head spin.

[rlh04d]

Yep. It takes hours to copy and paste win loss records into Excel. Tough stuff.

UNI has had only one good season. That's simply truth.

You clearly implied WSU had done likewise. You are wrong. Nice try at deflecting, though.

Nope, I did not imply that. You guys did that on your own.

I would like to know what one has to accomplish for it to be considered a "good season". If its "simply truth" that UNI has had "one good season", you would also have to agree that WSU's '11 NIT title and WSU's '12 MVC title and NCAA appearance were in fact not good seaons. But, I'm guessing that you do not believe those things to be true.

How we define this was exactly my point. If we define a good season strictly by national success, UNI only had one good season. And WSU's run in 2012 was not relevant.

Obviously I don't actually think UNI has only had one good season. But if you're going to make ridiculous arguments, I will take them to their logical conclusion.

[rlh04d]

I remind everyone this all started when UNI fan got their collective panties bunched in a wad.

And the point being WSU has greater aspirations than the Valley (which they do).

But still people want to fire back with Valley talk. So be it. You state "Which Wichita State has not been able to do"? Says whom? And compared with whom? Please bring up the 3 day crapshoot as the defining moment in being successful because that just cements my point.

Interesting that you completely scoff at the idea of bringing up a "3 day crapshoot", yet you are totally fine in using the NCAA tournament, a similar crapshoot, as the thesis for your argument as to why WSU is superior to all others.

WSU came together at the right time, and won the right games in the NCAA tournament and made a fabulous run. It does not mean that WSU is better than all others, and it does not mean that other Valley teams were incapable of doing the same. One could argue that WSU's '10, '11, and '12 teams were ALL better than the WSU team of '13. Yet, they did not win the right games at the right times and they did not get hot at the right time in March, and that's just the way it is. Yet, I don't see you writing those teams/seasons off as small-time mid-major contenders that are incapable of competing nationally.

This argument completely invalidates the entire idea of a national championship. The natural extension of this is stating that there is no difference in quality between the winner of the national championship and a fourth place finisher in the Horizon other than when a team got hot.

I can honestly take this argument and invalidate every championship in every sport in the history of sports. I can invalidate everything UNI has ever won with it.

For any fan of sports to make this argument is absurd. You're essentially arguing the results of athletic competition don't prove anything, which is the entire basis of sports.

This is an argument for not keeping score and giving everyone a juicy box and a trophy.

[rlh04d]

We don't need to convince anyone anything. UNI has been competing very successfully for 10 years.

No, you haven't. You've competed well within the conference.

Which Wichita State has not been able to do. When was the last time WSU won the conference tournament? The obvious rebuttal is then how many years has it been since ISU made an NCAA tournament, which is 15, and then my follow up rebuttal is that WSU didn't make the tournament for 18 years from 1988-2006.

WSU not making the tournament for 18 years doesn't invalidate anything. If anything, it gives WSU fans credibility, in that we know the difference between our program then and now. We know what changed. We know what made us incapable of being competitive during that stretch, and we aren't being completely dismissive of others when we identify the same mistakes we made then being made by others now.

I know this thread has descended into a pissing match, but the point really shouldn't be that WSU is or isn't better than anyone else. Its that WSU is putting itself into a position to be more successful than anyone else. No doubt this will change, but hopefully it will change by others putting themselves in that position rather than WSU falling out of it.

[iSASO]

At the risk of being ColdBlooded, take this into consideration. During the peak of the ride for SIU and UNI, you knew they probably didn't have the infrastructure to support it for the long haul. There were holes in the hull, there were small and/or bad facilities, bad finances. Some part of the foundation wasn't there.

What is missing at WSU? Why can't it work for a good long run?

[glm38]

...we should never be as bad as we were in non-con but we did improve a lot in the conference season. After watching the non-con I didn't think we would win 2-3 games in the conference season but managed to win 7 and lost 2 others at the buzzer. Getting Gulley back will make a big difference for us this year and we have another good class coming in…we will be much improved overall.

Agreed. MSU, however, will not be GOOD until they find a post that can play. Maybe one of your new guys will be "the guy" or maybe one of your newbies from last year will improve to that level, but you need a guy that can give you 8 and 5 every night in the paint.

Fortunately for MSU, many of the good post players (cyclops, McDermott, Hall, Mahurin, Daniels, etc.) are gone and Kirk could possibly come into his own as an upperclassman.

I agree with you to some extent regarding MSU and post play. But actually Kirk averaged right at your "8 and 5" on the season. And that includes the putrid non con stretch when no one really played well. He was much better the 2nd half of the season.

During that stretch he was a pretty good Valley post player even if he is somewhat undersized. Even if we don't bring in another post player I'm not sure it will hold us back too much as long as Tyler comes in ready to go and contribute. Just a frosh but and that's a tall order for a post but he looks capable and Tuttle for UNI came in and contributed immediately as a freshman a few years ago.

[Wufan]

There you have it. Kirk can be good enough that MSU might be a good team this year. Not a back-handed comment either. MSU has some young talent.

If I'm not mistaken, the Bears had struggles shooting from deep, rebounding, and defending/scoring from the post. MSU should shoot better with some of the additions and maturity. If Kirk and rebound and defend then MSU will make some noise. I'm not convinced they have enough to be better than 9-9, but we will see.

[glm38]

I 'd be really disappointed with 9-9. Think we 'll be better than that. The talent is there. Think our backcourt will be especially formidible.

A lot depends on Lusk.