Bradley to A10?

[rlh04d]

Undoubtedly.

And much the same, Bradley is a fine program with a storied past and a bright future. But unfortunately for them, due to geography

In terms of location, geography is an issue for Bradley in joining the A-10 assuming SLU and Dayton leave (and even then, still an issue), but if anything, it's an asset for NBE because Peoria is smack dab in the NBE footprint. That means it costs less for bus trips for Marquette, Butler, SLU, DePaul etc Olympic sports.

You're discussing geography in terms of travel costs. Which makes sense, because you're looking at this like the Valley looks at this, which is that travel costs for Olympic sports matters.

Travel costs don't mean a damn thing when you're talking about a TV contract that brings each and every team in the conference $3-4 million. Being in their geographic footprint means nothing in terms of that. You're talking about saving the conference tens of thousands while costing them millions.

Peoria is irrelevant geographically because you're in the middle of nowhere, in a state they already own, and bring no geographic benefits yourself. Travel costs will barely even be a consideration here.

As for your other points ... compare Bradley to Creighton, Saint Louis, Dayton, Butler, and whoever else. In what category do you compare? Market size? Audience? Basketball success? Fanbase size? Revenue? What category do you compare favorably with any of them? You mention market size for programs that are in markets twice the size of Peoria. You're pointing to Dayton's market size when they're more than twice your size. Same as Creighton. And on top of that, both of those programs are averaging around twice the number of fans you bring to games, which is well below a sell out.

You keep talking about being a top 40 program that makes the NCAA program regularly. That's a nice idea ... but you're not. You haven't been in decades. And even if you WERE, you would still not match up to any of the other programs. If your hope is that you're going to be Creighton, then awesome -- all you have to do is become that top 40 program that makes the tournament regularly. And average 17k fans a game (or at least a sell-out). And make $5million plus in revenue a year. And do so for a decade straight. Oh, and double the size of your market. So yeah, if you do those things, maybe you'll be able to increase the TV revenue.

You've never actually said once in what way you think Bradley would make the Big East a stronger conference. Every team would have to agree to accept less revenue to bring you into the conference ... and you're going to convince them with what? Maybe we'll be a good basketball program eventually? Maybe we'll be able to sell out our arena -- eventually? Maybe our market will double in size? We're ranked #4 in the oh-so-competitive "midwest regional college" section of US World News & Report, so that must mean something academically? It'll be cheaper to bus to play us?

[frankthetank]

Undoubtedly.

And much the same, Bradley is a fine program with a storied past and a bright future. But unfortunately for them, due to geography

In terms of location, geography is an issue for Bradley in joining the A-10 assuming SLU and Dayton leave (and even then, still an issue), but if anything, it's an asset for NBE because Peoria is smack dab in the NBE footprint. That means it costs less for bus trips for Marquette, Butler, SLU, DePaul etc Olympic sports.

You're discussing geography in terms of travel costs. Which makes sense, because you're looking at this like the Valley looks at this, which is that travel costs for Olympic sports matters.

Travel costs don't mean a damn thing when you're talking about a TV contract that brings each and every team in the conference $3-4 million. Being in their geographic footprint means nothing in terms of that. You're talking about saving the conference tens of thousands while costing them millions.

Peoria is irrelevant geographically because you're in the middle of nowhere, in a state they already own, and bring no geographic benefits yourself. Travel costs will barely even be a consideration here.

Yeah, I have some insight here as a DePaul Law alum: travel costs (outside of extreme costs such as having to go all the way west to a place like Gonzaga) are largely irrelevant to the new Big East. Otherwise, Creighton wouldn't have been added before SLU or Dayton (or possibly Richmond). The TV money absolutely matters: the Big East will not expand if any of the members lose a single cent in TV revenue. Now, the understanding is that Fox is willing to increase their payout to the Big East in a proportional manner if they increase to 12, so SLU plus one of either Dayton or Richmond would add enough revenue that would allow the current 10 members to maintain the same levels of TV money that they have now. However, there is absolutely no desire for a 14-team conference (neither from Fox nor the Big East university presidents). Fox isn't making the same offer for a proportional increase in going up to 14 members and the original Catholic 7 find it very critical that they maintain a majority of the votes in the league (and don't want it diluted by too many newcomers). So, 12 is the stopping point for the Big East in expansion. Bradley's main hope is that the Big East takes SLU (who is absolutely as good as gone - any assumption that the Big East would expand without them is patently false) and Richmond instead of Dayton. The A-10 could still plausibly expand with Midwestern teams if Dayton is still there, but it's very unlikely if their westernmost team is Duquesne. Even with Dayton still in the A-10, it's still a longshot for Bradley. Honestly, the A-10 would be looking at a school like (gulp) Loyola if its program has a pulse since it's an institutional fit in a massive TV market.

[TylerDurden]

Undoubtedly.

And much the same, Bradley is a fine program with a storied past and a bright future. But unfortunately for them, due to geography

In terms of location, geography is an issue for Bradley in joining the A-10 assuming SLU and Dayton leave (and even then, still an issue), but if anything, it's an asset for NBE because Peoria is smack dab in the NBE footprint. That means it costs less for bus trips for Marquette, Butler, SLU, DePaul etc Olympic sports.

You're discussing geography in terms of travel costs. Which makes sense, because you're looking at this like the Valley looks at this, which is that travel costs for Olympic sports matters.

Travel costs don't mean a damn thing when you're talking about a TV contract that brings each and every team in the conference $3-4 million. Being in their geographic footprint means nothing in terms of that. You're talking about saving the conference tens of thousands while costing them millions.

Peoria is irrelevant geographically because you're in the middle of nowhere, in a state they already own, and bring no geographic benefits yourself. Travel costs will barely even be a consideration here.

First, travel costs for Olympic sports matter in every league. To suggest otherwise is ignorance - of course it matters less in the SEC, but it still matters. Decisions are made because of travel costs.

Second, the A10 doesn't want either Bradley or WSU. Neither fits the profile of the A10 schools.

Bradley, Wichita State and every other school in the MVC without football are irrelevant at this stage of realignment and the schools with football don't have a very high ceiling.

If WSU added football or announced plans to add, it MIGHT have a chance to move, but then you're pretty much hoping C-USA wants you. The WSU experience as you know it wouldn't exist anymore in that situation.

[rlh04d]

I know Shox fans don't want to admit it, but the membership in the MVC isn't changing unless BCS football somehow lures a team away and dominoes start to fall. No one is calling WSU or anyone else looking to expand their leagues anytime soon.

I think most WSU fans have readily admitted that.

WSU will be going nowhere unless the status quo changes. The A-10 will have to expand west, the MWC or the AAC will have to accept basketball only schools, the Big East will have to expand to public schools.

Our only hope is that we become such a big name in the next few years that someone has to make an exception for us, ala Butler.

[rlh04d]

First, travel costs for Olympic sports matter in every league. To suggest otherwise is ignorance - of course it matters less in the SEC, but it still matters. Decisions are made because of travel costs.

Second, the A10 doesn't want either Bradley or WSU. Neither fits the profile of the A10 schools.

Bradley, Wichita State and every other school in the MVC without football are irrelevant at this stage of realignment and the schools with football don't have a very high ceiling.

If WSU added football or announced plans to add, it MIGHT have a chance to move, but then you're pretty much hoping C-USA wants you. The WSU experience as you know it wouldn't exist anymore in that situation.

Travel costs matter if you're talking about the SEC adding the University of Washington. Travel costs are one factor, but they are weighed against all of the other factors. If two schools are equal in other factors, travel costs are relevant. If one school is going to add or subtract a significant amount of money that far outweighs the travel costs, those travel costs become irrelevant. Other factors associated with travel are still relevant, but travel costs for Olympic sports are in the tens of thousands ... TV deals are in the millions. That is a massive difference. The Big12 added West Virginia in spite of travel costs because other factors were more relevant. Arguing that travel costs is the most important factor, or even in the top 5-10 for a major conference, is "ignorance." It is far more relevant to a conference like the Valley, without TV revenue offsetting travel costs.

As for your other points, I don't know why you're quoting me, because none of that is relevant to what I actually said.

[rlh04d]

The A-10 could still plausibly expand with Midwestern teams if Dayton is still there, but it's very unlikely if their westernmost team is Duquesne. Even with Dayton still in the A-10, it's still a longshot for Bradley. Honestly, the A-10 would be looking at a school like (gulp) Loyola if its program has a pulse since it's an institutional fit in a massive TV market.

I've said it before, but I think the only hope for expansion of MVC teams right now is based on Dayton staying in the A-10, and Bradley, WSU, and any others being brought into the conference.

However, I think Dayton is gone, and the A-10 has been expanding on the east coast rather than showing any interest of strengthening the midwest.

[TylerDurden]

First, travel costs for Olympic sports matter in every league. To suggest otherwise is ignorance - of course it matters less in the SEC, but it still matters. Decisions are made because of travel costs.

Second, the A10 doesn't want either Bradley or WSU. Neither fits the profile of the A10 schools.

Bradley, Wichita State and every other school in the MVC without football are irrelevant at this stage of realignment and the schools with football don't have a very high ceiling.

If WSU added football or announced plans to add, it MIGHT have a chance to move, but then you're pretty much hoping C-USA wants you. The WSU experience as you know it wouldn't exist anymore in that situation.

Travel costs matter if you're talking about the SEC adding the University of Washington. Travel costs are one factor, but they are weighed against all of the other factors. If two schools are equal in other factors, travel costs are relevant. If one school is going to add or subtract a significant amount of money that far outweighs the travel costs, those travel costs become irrelevant. Other factors associated with travel are still relevant, but travel costs for Olympic sports are in the tens of thousands ... TV deals are in the millions. That is a massive difference. The Big12 added West Virginia in spite of travel costs because other factors were more relevant. Arguing that travel costs is the most important factor, or even in the top 5-10 for a major conference, is "ignorance." It is far more relevant to a conference like the Valley, without TV revenue offsetting travel costs.

As for your other points, I don't know why you're quoting me, because none of that is relevant to what I actually said.

You're combining several issues and extrapolating my point to something I didn't say.

You keep asserting that travel for Olympic sports is in the tens of thousands, but I can assure you that the expenses for those teams, excluding coaches' salaries, is far higher than that in the MVC and definitely higher in other leagues. If you're picking out one tennis team for one year your point would have some validity, but there is more than one small team to consider.

But again, I simply said that travel costs for Olympic sports are a factor in every league and that leagues make decisions based on that - and that is true. For example, leagues pick championship sites and set scheduling parameters because of travel cost considerations. This is true in the MVC and other leagues. As I mentioned, it's less of an issue in certain leagues, but it still is considered.

Do leagues make membership decisions based on what the travel costs will be for Olympic sports? Some would, others wouldn't.

[rlh04d]

You're combining several issues and extrapolating my point to something I didn't say.

Which is exactly what you just did to me.

Travel costs are a factor in conference expansion. But travel costs are a very small number when you're comparing them with TV revenue. When you're discussing a conference like the SEC, while travel costs are still there, they are almost entirely irrelevant.

And yeah, I'm probably exaggerating the irrelevance of travel costs to a degree. According to the NCAA, travel costs make up 7% of a team's budget. That's a bit over double the cost of uniforms and equipment (3%).

http://sportsologist.com/college-athlet ... he-number/

[Mikovio]

You're discussing geography in terms of travel costs. Which makes sense, because you're looking at this like the Valley looks at this, which is that travel costs for Olympic sports matters.

Travel costs don't mean a damn thing when you're talking about a TV contract that brings each and every team in the conference $3-4 million. Being in their geographic footprint means nothing in terms of that. You're talking about saving the conference tens of thousands while costing them millions.

Every conference looks at travel costs to a degree. Travel costs every athletic department in the millions of dollars, up to the tens of millions.

http://espn.go.com/ncaa/revenue/_/type/expenses

Now, it becomes less of a consideration when you're the Big XII and your TV contract is worth $20 million per team and BCS football payouts add tens of millions more, so you can add West Virginia and deal with the extra flights and hotels without flinching.

But the NBE isn't on that level. The NBE schools' TV revenue is about equal to each's travel budget and they don't play BCS football. Travel costs loom much larger on their balance sheets than the Big XII or SEC, so those comparisons are silly. NBE budgets are closer to Valley than the SEC. And so having members in close proximity so they can send the tennis teams on a half-day bus trip and have them return to town without spending the night carries more weight. It's one factor among many discussed on here.

Peoria is irrelevant geographically because you're in the middle of nowhere, in a state they already own, and bring no geographic benefits yourself. Travel costs will barely even be a consideration here.

I don't think you can say they "own" Illinois. DePaul gets no play outside Chicago, and DePaul is drowned out even inside Chicago (by Notre Dame and the Big Ten, not to mention that it's a pro sports town so the colleges are fighting for scraps to begin with).

As for your other points ... compare Bradley to Creighton, Saint Louis, Dayton, Butler, and whoever else. In what category do you compare? Market size? Audience? Basketball success? Fanbase size? Revenue? What category do you compare favorably with any of them? You mention market size for programs that are in markets twice the size of Peoria. You're pointing to Dayton's market size when they're more than twice your size. Same as Creighton. And on top of that, both of those programs are averaging around twice the number of fans you bring to games, which is well below a sell out.

No, you're arguing with a strawman. I'm not arguing that Bradley compares favorable to Butler, Creighton, SLU and Dayton. I already stated long ago they have been/will be admitted before Bradley. My point is that Bradley compares favorably to most if not all of the expansion schools (sans Richmond), considering the factors laid out ad nauseum.

I mentioned Omaha's and Dayton's market size to prove to you that your statement -- "You will not join the Big East, because you will be unable to increase their TV contract" -- is a false premise, for the reason that the league has already accepted or strongly considered schools that did not increase their TV contract. It's a narrow, singular point I was making and I wasn't at all making the argument that Bradley would be picked ahead of those schools.

You keep talking about being a top 40 program that makes the NCAA program regularly. That's a nice idea ... but you're not. You haven't been in decades.

Again, strawman.

And even if you WERE, you would still not match up to any of the other programs. If your hope is that you're going to be Creighton, then awesome -- all you have to do is become that top 40 program that makes the tournament regularly. And average 17k fans a game (or at least a sell-out). And make $5million plus in revenue a year. And do so for a decade straight. Oh, and double the size of your market. So yeah, if you do those things, maybe you'll be able to increase the TV revenue.

I'm not saying Bradley will be Creighton. Creighton has all that and was the 10th member. I'm saying that in order to become the 14th-16th member, if such a member is ever sought, Bradley has to become a top-40 program. Then you'll see sellouts and revenue spike (although I'm not quite sure what a school's own ticket revenue has to do with conference expansion). No the market size won't change, but again, we're talking about the 10th member here, but the 16th.

No point in comparing Bradley to Creighton or Butler or Xavier. There's a reason those were admitted over Bradley. Future expansion will instead pit Bradley against Detroit, Loyola, Davidson, etc., so let's stick with those comparisons.

You've never actually said once in what way you think Bradley would make the Big East a stronger conference.

I have. A top program brings NCAA revenue. Plus it's a good academic fit and compares favorably to other expansion candidates.

Every team would have to agree to accept less revenue to bring you into the conference

Again, less TV revenue sure but that revenue can be made up with NCAA revenue if the program is good enough.

... and you're going to convince them with what? Maybe we'll be a good basketball program eventually? Maybe we'll be able to sell out our arena -- eventually?

Once again, this is contingent on future expansion taking place after the BU program is rebuilt into a top 40 program. And if it is, you will see sellouts. During and immediately after the Sweet 16 and NIT seasons in 06-07 you saw many near sellouts in Peoria. A consistent top 40 program would sell out.

Maybe our market will double in size? We're ranked #4 in the oh-so-competitive "midwest regional college" section of US World News & Report, so that must mean something academically? It'll be cheaper to bus to play us?

Have you looked at the USNWR list? The schools rated ahead of Bradley are Creighton, Butler and Xavier (plus Drake and Valpo). They're very similar. And yes, travel would be cheaper.

Again, IF the NBE decides to expand and IF the BU program is top-40 at that time, BU would be a strong candidate. Two big IF's. And saying that Bradley doesn't compare favorably to Marquette or Creighton is pointless because, if the NBE decided it wants to expand, it will be comparing BU to other expansion candidates, and not established members. Maybe they'll decide that all candidates are so weak that it makes no sense to expand at all, and they stay pat. I think that's likely in fact.

[Mikovio]

Yeah, I have some insight here as a DePaul Law alum: travel costs (outside of extreme costs such as having to go all the way west to a place like Gonzaga) are largely irrelevant to the new Big East. Otherwise, Creighton wouldn't have been added before SLU or Dayton (or possibly Richmond). The TV money absolutely matters: the Big East will not expand if any of the members lose a single cent in TV revenue.

First of all, what exactly does being a DePaul Law alum have to do with any special insight into athletic conferences? I'm an Northern Illinois Law alum and I don't think most of my classmates are even aware they made the Orange Bowl last year, let alone be able to fill you in on the MAC entrance criteria.

The travel cost difference between two different prospective members can be hundreds of thousands of dollars per school. It's not a large factor but it is a factor that can be offset by TV and NCAA revenue.

Creighton was added before SLU and Dayton because they are a top-40 program, and bring consistent NCAA apppearances and multimillion dollar NCAA shares to the table. The travel cost difference between the two is small, but the NCAA share difference between what Creighton and SLU have pulled in the last decade is in the tens of millions. Dayton, although they are a better geographic fit, have a worse NCAA track record.

Now, if TV money was the overriding factor, SLU would have been invited over Creighton because the STL metro area is 2.5x that of Omaha. Fox definitely pays more to have SLU in the fold over Creighton. But the C-7 went with Creighton, which tells me that they are sometimes willing to make up with NCAA revenue what they may leave on the table with TV revenue.

Now, the understanding is that Fox is willing to increase their payout to the Big East in a proportional manner if they increase to 12, so SLU plus one of either Dayton or Richmond would add enough revenue that would allow the current 10 members to maintain the same levels of TV money that they have now. However, there is absolutely no desire for a 14-team conference (neither from Fox nor the Big East university presidents). Fox isn't making the same offer for a proportional increase in going up to 14 members and the original Catholic 7 find it very critical that they maintain a majority of the votes in the league (and don't want it diluted by too many newcomers).

I'm not saying that there is a desire to expand to 14 or 16 now. I think if this happens it will be a decade or more out, when new TV negotiations or renegotiations take place and the C-7 presidents may feel more comfortable with Xavier, Creighton, SLU and Dayton so that they can expand without losing their voting bloc power. Alignment partners now aren't necessarily set in stone-- DePaul for example used to be an independent.

So, 12 is the stopping point for the Big East in expansion. Bradley's main hope is that the Big East takes SLU (who is absolutely as good as gone - any assumption that the Big East would expand without them is patently false) and Richmond instead of Dayton. The A-10 could still plausibly expand with Midwestern teams if Dayton is still there, but it's very unlikely if their westernmost team is Duquesne. Even with Dayton still in the A-10, it's still a longshot for Bradley. Honestly, the A-10 would be looking at a school like (gulp) Loyola if its program has a pulse since it's an institutional fit in a massive TV market.

If that happens, it's more likely Bradley stays and Dayton considers joining the Valley.