Mikovio wrote:Welp, I had a nice lengthy screed prepared and was just about finished when my computer restarted for Windows Update. Anyway, here's the Cliff notes:
Been there

-I don't think there's a magic timeframe but the MAC has gotten better over the last few decades. In the 90s, the AQs had almost nothing to fear from any MAC team except Marshall for a few years. For 2003 they briefly were competitive like this past year, but you could write that off as the work of a few great individuals like Roethlisberger, Urban Meyer and Michael Turner. I think last year was a legitimate step up and seeing how facilities and recruiting have improved markedly it may be sustained. Phil Steele says 17 of the top 18 offensive players return in the MAC, so there's good reason to believe last year wasn't a fluke like you say.
I'm NOT saying last year was a fluke. The MAC might very well have turned the corner. However, my education is mostly in economics and statistics -- I'm arguing from statistical evidence. I don't watch the MAC except for a few games from the top teams, so you're far more of an expert on the quality of the MAC than I am. What I CAN say is that, statistically, the MAC has had other big years and has always has a let-down year following it. What I can say is that one season does not represent a trend, but represents a statistical anomaly until proven otherwise.
The MAC might be awesome this year, but they have to prove it. You can't assume it based on the stats.
-Re: facilities, what I'm getting at is the law of diminishing returns. In other words, even though the MAC schools spend less on facilities, they're getting more return on their dollar, while the BCS schools beyond a certain point get less and less. That's why, even though it sounds counterintuitive, they're catching up despite spending less. Like for example the guy who goes from no car to a Ford Focus, while spending less than the guy who goes from a BMW 3 series to a 6 series, gets the greater jump in QOL.
It's a good argument, but I think "catching up" is the wrong phrase to use. The guy who buys the Ford Focus has a greater jump in his QOL, but he certainly isn't "catching up" to the other guy just because he had a relative jump. China is making huge strides in QOL relative to US income, but they're a hell of a long way from catching up to us in per capita GDP.
-The fact that WV/Clemson had the worst BCS ratings in history actually hurts your argument that nobody wants to watch non-AQs, because it means the worst watched game featured all AQs. The WSJ's "study" doesn't define the "expected" criteria so the line you drew may or may not be what they used. Either way, Florida State's star has faded A LOT in recent years, and I'm betting so has their drawing power. No program has fallen further the last 5-10 years (maybe Miami). So while a study of their drawing power in the recent past may be relevant, there's good reason to believe it overrates it at the moment. I think even a few years ago they were still in the afterglow of the Bowden glory days. Just now are they finally creeping back into the top 10.
Actually, it says that no one wanted to watch Clemson, which was the second best ACC team that year, face off against West Virginia, which was clearly a mediocre team that magically got the Big East's AQ bid despite a three way tie for the conference championships and barely even qualified for the AQ bid. Both of those programs also have rather mediocre fan support nationally. Clemson was #15 that year and West Virginia was #23. That game was a joke to be played as a part of the BCS bowl system, and it would have been higher had it included Boise State, who were #7 that year. Those two teams were not two of the best teams in the country, which is what the BCS bowl system is supposed to provide.
My argument is that people want to watch competitive games. People will absolutely watch Boise State, because Boise State has proven to provide good competition. It's not a black and white AQ/non-AQ line. It's competitive/non-competitive.
As for FSU, again, you keep giving gut feelings and I keep proving you wrong with numbers

FSU has faded a lot, but the number I gave you was the end of FSU's dead period as we were turning the corner (which I always laugh about, because at our worst we still never finished under .500 or worse than 3rd in our conference -- what accounts for a "bad season" is very relative. Michigan, USC, and others have had FAR worse years recently, and I've never heard those programs referred to the way FSU was during our dead period). Actually, that number was low for FSU, because it was heavily weighted by FSU's glory days -- FSU's biggest benefit to bowl ratings has been by participating in the Champs Sports Bowls and Gator Bowls of the world for a program that has BCS-bowl national perception. They've provided huge bumps to a lot of those smaller bowls that they've participated in. But, like I said, numbers:
2012/13 season: We've already covered the Orange Bowl.
2011/12 season: FSU participates in the Champs Sports Bowl against Notre Dame. Game scores anywhere from a 3.28 Nielsen rating to a 3.8 -- I've seen all listed, but I'll go with the lowest. Previous season had a 2.1, the following season had a 1.1. I don't think you even want me to go into the percentage change FSU (along with ND, another big draw despite being heavily weighted by their glory days) amounted to over the previous and following bowls.
2010/11 season: FSU participates in the Chick-Fil-A Bowl against South Carolina. Game scores a 5.0 rating, the highest of any non-BCS bowl. Previous year was a 4.2, following year was a 3.6. Again, huge change.
2009/10 season: FSU participates in the Gator Bowl against West Virginia. Game scores between a 4.0 and 4.3 rating. Previous year was a 4.1, following year was a 2.0. Again, assuming the lower number, this would have been the only year I've ever seen FSU not result in an increase from the previous year -- but the ratings were less than half the following year.
2008/09 season: FSU participates in the Champs Sports Bowl against Wisconsin. Game scores a 4.5 rating. The following season scores a 3.9. The previous year I couldn't find an actual rating for, but the 2008 FSU game had 5.1 million viewers, while the previous year only had 3.6 million.
Those games all took place in the period you're describing as FSU having a faded star that diminishes their impact on ratings.
-OB yardage disparity is misleading because the strength of UNI's defense last year was its performance in the red zone. UNI's defense last year gave up a lot of yards between the 20s and stiffened in the red zone, like they did for the first 3Q in the OB. Also Xavier Rhodes blatantly committed pass interference on Moore in the end zone in the 2Q which affected momentum. Also, it didn't help that UNI was missing its coach. I know, more excuses. I think FSU wins anyway but it was competitive and probably should have been moreso.
Excuses

-The MAC's computer average is dragged down by a few bottom feeders that may be better suited for the FCS. To be clear, I believe it's not the competition from the bottom dwelling non-AQs that the AQs fear, but the best of them which threaten to qualify for BCS bowls and the millions of dollars that come with it, and any among the rest that might reach that stage. Their goal is to make any such further mobility by them impossible and hoard all the TV revenue.
It absolutely is their threat to qualify for BCS bowls and the money involved that they fear. But they fear that primarily under the idea that the non-AQ teams have an easier road to make a BCS bowl by going 12-1 against inferior competition, and thus sending, say, a top 35 Northern Illinois team into a BCS bowl. Because a top 35 team is a quality team, but it's not a team that deserves to be in a BCS bowl.
Granted, this is a problem that the BCS conferences have created for themselves by refusing to play the non-AQ teams on a fair basis, thus creating no means of comparison between the BCS conferences and the non-BCS conferences.
-I fundamentally disagree that a line "must be drawn." I'd get rid of the FCS/FBS distinction and let schools compete where they want. The arbitrary attendance distinction pushed by the big schools in the early 80s crippled many storied Ivy League programs with more tradition than any of them (sans Rutgers), and some of them were very competitive nationally, like Penn at the time.
Maybe "must be drawn" is the wrong statement. "Will be drawn." The line will be drawn. It's already been drawn, and it will be redrawn. It'll do so primarily to keep MAC and such teams from stealing spots in the BCS bowls and particularly the playoff, but it'll also serve to increase the level of competition from the average game. And the MAC will almost certainly be on the wrong side of the line from your perspective.
-I agree with your take on relegation but it will never happen.
Alas. This is about money, not pure competition.