Odds the MVC is a one bid league?

by **ShockValue** » November 15th, 2013, 5:26 pm

Tough for me to see anyone other than WSU getting an at large. Hope I'm wrong. I'm saying 75% chance of just one MVC team dancing unless the Shockers lose in St Louis.

**Sponsor**

by **Wufan** » November 15th, 2013, 5:30 pm

Too early to tell. Bradley, Evansville (and WSU) are running rough shot over cream puffs. Indiana State has one loss which is meaningless if they win 6 in a row. Lots of teams have lots to do to look like/prove themselves to be NCAA tourney teams.

by **TheAsianSensation** » November 15th, 2013, 5:33 pm

Ooooooh I get to bust out my calculator.

I'm going to give WSU a robust 75% chance to win Arch Madness and a 100% chance of having an at-large resume.
InSU - 40% chance of at-large bid
UNI - 30% chance
UE, MSU, BU - 10% chance each
the other 4 - 0% of one of the 4

Adding it up and the Valley is about a 80% chance of at least 2 bids.

We'll be fine.

by **Snaggletooth** » November 15th, 2013, 7:04 pm

MVC IS:

2 bid if wsu wins the regular season and loses stl

1 bid if wsu wins the regular season and wins stl
1 bid if anybody else wins the league other than wsu.

by **sixth ace** » November 15th, 2013, 8:12 pm

Snaggletooth wrote:MVC IS:

2 bid if wsu wins the regular season and loses stl

1 bid if wsu wins the regular season and wins stl
1 bid if anybody else wins the league other than wsu.

Wheat chaff! :Beer:

by **Wufan** » November 15th, 2013, 8:22 pm

Could be a tough weekend for the MVC.

Bradley is doing well against Chicago St but has to go to Illinois Sumday.
Drake is at St. Mary's.
Evansville is off
Illinois St is at Northwestern
Indiana State is at Notre Dame
Loyola is at Tulane
Missouri State gets Tulsa at home
Northern Iowa is at George Mason
SIU is at St Louis
WSU gets Tenn-Mart at home

I'm not sure how good these teams are, but lots of big names.

by **rlh04d** » November 15th, 2013, 9:07 pm

TheAsianSensation wrote:Ooooooh I get to bust out my calculator.

I'm going to give WSU a robust 75% chance to win Arch Madness and a 100% chance of having an at-large resume.
InSU - 40% chance of at-large bid
UNI - 30% chance
UE, MSU, BU - 10% chance each
the other 4 - 0% of one of the 4

Adding it up and the Valley is about a 80% chance of at least 2 bids.

We'll be fine.

I like your percentages. I don't agree with them, but I like them.

by **sixth ace** » November 15th, 2013, 10:03 pm

Wufan wrote:Could be a tough weekend for the MVC.

Bradley is doing well against Chicago St but has to go to Illinois Sumday.
Drake is at St. Mary's.
Evansville is off
Illinois St is at Northwestern
Indiana State is at Notre Dame
Loyola is at Tulane
Missouri State gets Tulsa at home
Northern Iowa is at George Mason
SIU is at St Louis
WSU gets Tenn-Mart at home

I'm not sure how good these teams are, but lots of big names.

It's a three day weekend in Evansville... hosts Mercer on Monday @ the Ford Center.

by **BradleyBrave** » November 15th, 2013, 10:07 pm

Very high unless someone besides the Shocks win the tourney.

by **CBB_Fan** » November 15th, 2013, 11:03 pm

The odds are high. From the numbers I've run, the changes to the conference will result in about a 10-25 hit to most team's RPI. That isn't very important when your RPI is 200+, but when you are competing for an NCAA bid it is much harder to get any traction without a top 60 RPI and/or a fair number of quality wins.

I'd say the MVC has three teams at least in the race in February which will narrow down to two teams as the MVC tournament wraps up after one of those three loses. But I think that #2 team will not have the RPI or the wins necessary to crack into the tournament and will end up as a 1-3 seed in the NIT.