AT-LARGE ODD [Update - 1/3 of Conference]

[Cdizzle]

BTW, I'm not sure UNI gets a bid with less than 21 wins.

Not sure a lot of these win totals are realistic if you don't have Duke written on the front of your jersey. When was the last Valley at-large with less than 25 wins? WSU had 24 and Bradley had 20 in 2006. That year was a perfect storm that doesn't exist this year.

Every at-large candidate also receives one loss in the MVC tournament, by definition.

[TheAsianSensation]

Not much to argue with, although I'd add one thing for each of the chasers:

Wichita St is the magic bullet. Split with WSU in conference play and you get a very key part of your profile. It's almost worth laying out two scenarios for each team - one in which they whiff against Wichita, and one in which they split with them.

I'd rather be 13-5 with a split of WSU rather that 14-4 with 2 of the losses to Wichita. In terms of resume.

[pafan]

I don't think there's more than about a 5% chance of a non-WSU team getting an at-large bid.

I think it would be a win just to get a team into the NIT. A top 75 RPI is a good goal to get there, and right now RPIForecast says that is possible but far from certain.

[jwa123]

At ISUr we don't know yet what we have. This is a team that could surprise and do much better than what everyone expects. On the other hand, this is a team that could disappoint. We just don't know yet.

WSU will win the league easily but I don't think they will go undefeated. There will be a game somewhere along the way that they come out a little flat and they will run into a team that plays beyond themselves that night. There will be teams that come out more than once and play better than anyone would guess because the game is against WSU and WSU has the target on their back that all of the teams will be shooting at. I don't think any of them will be successful but for one team on one night when WSU is flat.

As an ISUr fan this will sound strange but I am disappointed with Bradley so far. There is an element of WSU fans that throw barbs our way but as you may notice we don't respond much anymore. WSU isn't our rival and never will be. BU is our rival and their season so far has me worried. Did they hire the right coach and if not how long will it take to straighten that out? Geno worries me. We lived through two bad coaching hires at ISUr after Stallings left and it killed us for a decade. I remember the days when RBA and the Civic center were a buzz saw when both teams were good. That was a fun time.

Two of my favorite coaches in the the league are Jacobson and Lansing. I will never count either team out of any game with those two at the helm of their respective teams.

Is Drake good or has their season been smoke and mirrors? We are about to find out.

I'm looking forward to the start of another conference season. Let's have some fun.

[Snaggletooth]

ISUB - 3 loss margin: No Change
Drake - 4 loss margin: Down to 3 loss
MSU - 5 loss margin: Down to 3 loss (loss to LUC counts extra)
UNI - 4 loss margin: Down to 3 loss
ISUR - 2 loss margin: Down to 1 loss

Eliminated
UE - 1 loss margin: 0-2 start
SIU - 0 loss margin: 0-2 start
Bradley - 0 loss margin: 1-1 start
Loyolla - 0 loss margin: 1-1 start

[Play Angry]

On the bright side, ISUb's chances of finishing with an RPI of 50 or better are up to 32.78% according to RPIforecast.com

[Snaggletooth]

Third of the way thru Conference season.

WSU - virtual lock unless tragedy strikes

ISUB - 3 loss margin: down to 2 losses, Feb. 5 already circled on their calendar, but if they pull a MSU they are dead.
UNI - 4 loss margin: Down to 2 loss margin - who knows be the team to beat WSU and it might punch your ticket if you can keep from dropping a turd.
MSU - 5 loss margin: Down to 1 loss left with their 2-4 start in the MVC, hard to not see them being eliminated if not next week, the week after.


Eliminated
ISUR - 2 loss margin: 4-2 start against bottom feeders of the league does not make u a contendor. Eliminated from at-large contention.
DU - 4 loss margin: 0-5 start after promising non-conference
UE - 1 loss margin: 2-4 start
SIU - 0 loss margin: 2-4 start
Bradley - 0 loss margin: 2-4 start
Loyola - 0 loss margin: 2-4 start

[Snaggletooth]

WSU
ISUB
MSU

Eliminated
UNI - can't drop a turd like LUC and expect any love
ISUR
DU
UE
SIU
Bradley
Loyola

[Ricardo del Rio]

I don't think there's more than about a 5% chance of a non-WSU team getting an at-large bid.

I think it would be a win just to get a team into the NIT. A top 75 RPI is a good goal to get there, and right now RPIForecast says that is possible but far from certain.

Y'all are writing off Blue way too early.

[bigdawg]

The league is so bad that the Sycs only chance is probably winning in STL.