2013-2014 Bracketology thread

[agrinut]

I have nowhere else to post this, and this is in response to a topic that's several months old, but warrants mentioning:

When I was talking about the MVC's TV deal this year, I was wondering why we gave up a national weekly spot on ESPNU on Sunday, that hurt our exposure.

Now I finally have an answer.

We didn't turn it down, the ACC and Pac-12 hijacked it from us. I just checked, both conferences own the Sunday night slots now.

I don't think there's a right or wrong answer as to who our next TV contract should be signed with.

The way the leadership of the valley runs things I bet we start playing Friday nights.

[Wufan]

I have nowhere else to post this, and this is in response to a topic that's several months old, but warrants mentioning:

When I was talking about the MVC's TV deal this year, I was wondering why we gave up a national weekly spot on ESPNU on Sunday, that hurt our exposure.

Now I finally have an answer.

We didn't turn it down, the ACC and Pac-12 hijacked it from us. I just checked, both conferences own the Sunday night slots now.

I don't think there's a right or wrong answer as to who our next TV contract should be signed with.

The way the leadership of the valley runs things I bet we start playing Friday nights.

That would be horrendous!

[TheAsianSensation]

I have nowhere else to post this, and this is in response to a topic that's several months old, but warrants mentioning:

When I was talking about the MVC's TV deal this year, I was wondering why we gave up a national weekly spot on ESPNU on Sunday, that hurt our exposure.

Now I finally have an answer.

We didn't turn it down, the ACC and Pac-12 hijacked it from us. I just checked, both conferences own the Sunday night slots now.

I don't think there's a right or wrong answer as to who our next TV contract should be signed with.

The way the leadership of the valley runs things I bet we start playing Friday nights.

That's assuming we can bump the Horizon out of their weekly Friday TV slot

[TheAsianSensation]

Meanwhile:

The 1 line: Arizona (17-0), Wisconsin (16-0), Syracuse (16-0), Michigan St (15-1)
The 2 line: Villanova (15-1), Oklahoma St (14-2), Iowa St (14-1), Wichita St (16-0)
The 3 line: Florida (13-2), Kentucky (12-3), Ohio St (15-2), UMass (14-1)
The 4 line: San Diego St (12-1), Baylor (11-2), Kansas (11-4), Iowa (14-3)
The 5 line: Colorado (14-3), Oregon (13-2), Duke (12-4), Creighton (14-2)
The 6 line: Louisville (14-3), Pittsburgh (15-1), UCLA (13-3), Cincinnati (15-2)
The 7 line: Memphis (12-3), Michigan (11-4), Gonzaga (13-3), St Louis (14-2)
The 8 line: Virginia (12-4), Missouri (13-2), UConn (13-3), VCU (13-3)
The 9 line: New Mexico (12-3), California (12-4), Kansas St (12-4), Oklahoma (13-3)
The 10 line: Harvard (13-2), Xavier (13-4), North Carolina (10-6), Georgetown (11-4)
The 11 line: Minnesota (12-4), Florida St (11-4), G. Washington (13-3), SMU (11-4)
The 12 line: LSU (10-4), Dayton (12-4), Illinois (13-4), Texas (12-4), Green Bay (10-3), Louisiana Tech (13-3)
The 13 line: Akron (10-5), Belmont (11-6), Manhattan (12-3), Mercer (10-5)
The 14 line: New Mexico St (13-5), Boston (11-6), Stephen F Austin (13-2), Delaware (10-7)
The 15 line: IPFW (11-5), Northern Colorado (8-3), UC Irvine (9-7), Georgia St (8-6)
The 16 line: Radford (9-5), Vermont (6-8), Robert Morris (7-10), Chattanooga (7-8), Norfolk St (6-7), Southern (4-9)


Last 4 out:
Arkansas (11-4)
Boise St (9-5)
St Mary's (12-5)
Arizona St (13-4)

Next 4 out:
Indiana St (11-3)
Tennessee (9-5)
Southern Miss (12-3)
Butler (9-6)

Consideration board:
BYU (10-7)
Clemson (11-4)
Notre Dame (10-6)
Indiana (11-5)
Providence (11-5)
North Dakota St (9-5)
Toledo (12-2)
Charlotte (10-5)

Wichita to the 2 line for now. 7 teams ahead of them: 2 B1G, 2 Big 12, 1 ACC, 1 Big East, 1 Pac-12. Pay attention to that distribution, because it'll be key to Wichita's seed. I'm not sure Wichita can hold off the SEC champion, whoever it is, long-term. And if UMass has a big season, the strength of that conference will cause them to pass Wichita, perhaps.

Can Wichita hold off SEC #1? Or Pac-12 #2? Or ACC #2? Or B1G #3? It's a big ask.

Indiana St is in pretty good position. In a vacuum, if they split with Wichita and lose 2 other road games in Valley play, I think that's a clinch on an at-large bid. The bubble is stronger this year, but there's room.

Northern Iowa does have the SoS and RPI help if they make a run. They'll need to split their 4 games with WSU/InSU to help erase some of their sins.

Missouri St in on the brink. 2 roadies at InSU and UNI upcoming. Get both and you still have a fighting chance. A split keeps you breathing for now.

[PantherSigEp]

Northern Iowa does have the SoS and RPI help if they make a run. They'll need to split their 4 games with WSU/InSU to help erase some of their sins.

Have to disagree. If UNI drops any of those 3 remaining games I think that ends it for them (especially when you consider that it's doubtful that they go undefeated against the other 7 MVC teams). The game against the Shox is a must win in order to get a signature W and a split with Indy St is only permissible if they have some wins like VCU, LaSalle, etc start picking up steam and work their way into the RPI Top 50. Or some other teams start moving into the Top 100 (wins: Loyola Marymount and Drake + losses:George Mason and Milwaukee).

They need help big time in that regard because they are currently 0-3 vs. the Top 20. It only changes to 2-2 for the Top 50-100 and 6-2 for 101+. Right now they sit at 4-7 against the Top 150 which doesn't look pretty on any resume. Even if it's just 4-4 against 21-150 that's nothing special. Only a Power 6 team gets a pass on that. Not a mid major.


Actually if you look at it more closely Indiana State is sitting only marginally better than UNI and I think Missouri State is in a near unsalvageable position with the loss to Loyola and 0 wins against an RPI top 100. They really need A&M, Tulsa and Oral Roberts to surge into that Top 100 and pretty much win all but 2 or 3 against WSU, ISUb and UNI to take 2nd place (assuming they don't drop any more games to bottom tier teams). They've already dropped one to the Shox. That's a pretty tall mountain to climb IMO. They need to win out even more so than UNI

[TheAsianSensation]

Well, my original premise was that UNI (and the rest) would have to run the table, or come very very close to, against the bottom 6 in the league.

I think UNI is in slightly better shape than everyone thinks only because the committee has proven in the past they'll reward good non-con SoSs with only marginal results (the VCU win has keeper value).

Point is, I can still see a path to the bubble conversation for UNI that isn't impossible. Same for Missouri St, but they did use their one mulligan at Loyola already.

[Wufan]

Well, my original premise was that UNI (and the rest) would have to run the table, or come very very close to, against the bottom 6 in the league.

I think UNI is in slightly better shape than everyone thinks only because the committee has proven in the past they'll reward good non-con SoSs with only marginal results (the VCU win has keeper value).

Point is, I can still see a path to the bubble conversation for UNI that isn't impossible. Same for Missouri St, but they did use their one mulligan at Loyola already.

MSU has to run the table IMO.

There is room for a VERY strong UNI OR Indiana State, not both. IMO, UNI or Indiana State is going to have to go 15-3 to be on the bubble.

[BCPanther]

With the way the schedule sets up, UNI has a decent shot to be 10-1 when Indiana State comes to CF on Feb 1. Having Indiana State and Wichita at home back to back Saturdays is huge, just can't drop the Illinois State game in between.

If UNI can get to 14-4 and get 1 in StL, they are, at worst, in the conversation. Hold on to leads against Milwaukee and Iowa State and we're in really good shape...

[PantherSigEp]

With the way the schedule sets up, UNI has a decent shot to be 10-1 when Indiana State comes to CF on Feb 1. Having Indiana State and Wichita at home back to back Saturdays is huge, just can't drop the Illinois State game in between.

If UNI can get to 14-4 and get 1 in StL, they are, at worst, in the conversation. Hold on to leads against Milwaukee and Iowa State and we're in really good shape...

If only we could ask for a rematch with Milwaukee, Maryland and George Mason. I think we outplayed ISU for much of the game but there is little doubt that they are a better team. UNI didn't really start to mesh until that game, only giving us glimpses of what they were capable of during those first 8 matchups. If they played those 3 teams again I think they win convincingly. Particularly Mason and Milwuakee. They really played poorly for stretches during those games and couldn't hit water from a boat. As we've seen since the Iowa State game is that this team has gotten over that hump for the most part. Wichita is the only time they showed glimpses of those struggles and that's more a reflection on the Shockers defense than the Panthers offense.

Oh well. We spilled the milk. Time to simply clean it up and take care of business rather than cry over it

[jturner38]

With the way the schedule sets up, UNI has a decent shot to be 10-1 when Indiana State comes to CF on Feb 1. Having Indiana State and Wichita at home back to back Saturdays is huge, just can't drop the Illinois State game in between.

If UNI can get to 14-4 and get 1 in StL, they are, at worst, in the conversation. Hold on to leads against Milwaukee and Iowa State and we're in really good shape...

I hate to say it but UNI's destiny will be in the hands of the Selection Committee.