What if Creighton was still in the Valley...

[TheAsianSensation]

all good points. I don't think WSU really has a shot at No.1 - it is fun to dream, but WSU won't have the resume since some of the worst Div I b-ball teams happen to play in the MVC. At best I'm just hoping that WSU will get a decent seed with decent matchup in the first round.

If we finish undefeated, we have a one seed.

But that is the only way we get a one seed. One loss and it's gone.

A one seed would be awesome, but I'm hardly going to complain about a three seed, either. What's the highest seed a Valley team has had in the last 20 or so years?

It's really a shame we can't transport Wichita into last year's bracket, because the candidates for the 1 seed are much stronger this year than last.

Frankly I don't think Wichita is a lock on the 1 line with an undefeated record. Truth is, fate's out of their hand, and there's little difference between 33-0 and 31-2. The media will think it's big, but the selection committee isn't so easily swayed.

The ironic thing is that Wichita's best profile aspect might actually turn out to be the eye test. People can complain about the SoS but the committee probably would override it with the "eye test" argument.

[rlh04d]

Frankly I don't think Wichita is a lock on the 1 line with an undefeated record. Truth is, fate's out of their hand, and there's little difference between 33-0 and 31-2. The media will think it's big, but the selection committee isn't so easily swayed.

I'd be shocked if we're looking at a number of 31-2 teams in a few weeks.

I'm not counting on WSU to be undefeated at all, but we especially shouldn't be writing off the remaining 15 or so games for the other teams in significantly better conferences. There will be a lot of losses still to come.

There are currently 11 teams with 2 losses or less. Only five of those have any chance of being ranked ahead of WSU. Only one of Michigan State/Wisconsin has a shot at finishing in that group (impossible for both to finish with two losses or less).

That leaves the competition for an undefeated WSU at Arizona, Syracuse, Michigan State/Wisconsin, Florida, and Kansas, based on SOS. Only five teams that can keep an undefeated WSU out of a 1-seed, and I doubt all four of those first four finish with two or fewer losses. I'm guessing two finish with two losses and two finish with three-four losses. I don't see a six/seven loss Kansas team being a one seed over an undefeated WSU.

[shocktheheart]

Frankly I don't think Wichita is a lock on the 1 line with an undefeated record. Truth is, fate's out of their hand, and there's little difference between 33-0 and 31-2. The media will think it's big, but the selection committee isn't so easily swayed.

I'd be shocked if we're looking at a number of 31-2 teams in a few weeks.

I'm not counting on WSU to be undefeated at all, but we especially shouldn't be writing off the remaining 15 or so games for the other teams in significantly better conferences. There will be a lot of losses still to come.

There are currently 11 teams with 2 losses or less. Only five of those have any chance of being ranked ahead of WSU. Only one of Michigan State/Wisconsin has a shot at finishing in that group (impossible for both to finish with two losses or less).

That leaves the competition for an undefeated WSU at Arizona, Syracuse, Michigan State/Wisconsin, Florida, and Kansas, based on SOS. Only five teams that can keep an undefeated WSU out of a 1-seed, and I doubt all four of those first four finish with two or fewer losses. I'm guessing two finish with two losses and two finish with three-four losses. I don't see a six/seven loss Kansas team being a one seed over an undefeated WSU.

What about San Diego St? They still only have one loss and have a great win at KU.

[ShockValue]

I just watched the highlights of the jays game and can say without question that we'd have gotten destroyed against that Creighton team shooting that way. I think everyone would have. Hell SIU and Loyola might have given up 130 points.

[rlh04d]

Frankly I don't think Wichita is a lock on the 1 line with an undefeated record. Truth is, fate's out of their hand, and there's little difference between 33-0 and 31-2. The media will think it's big, but the selection committee isn't so easily swayed.

I'd be shocked if we're looking at a number of 31-2 teams in a few weeks.

I'm not counting on WSU to be undefeated at all, but we especially shouldn't be writing off the remaining 15 or so games for the other teams in significantly better conferences. There will be a lot of losses still to come.

There are currently 11 teams with 2 losses or less. Only five of those have any chance of being ranked ahead of WSU. Only one of Michigan State/Wisconsin has a shot at finishing in that group (impossible for both to finish with two losses or less).

That leaves the competition for an undefeated WSU at Arizona, Syracuse, Michigan State/Wisconsin, Florida, and Kansas, based on SOS. Only five teams that can keep an undefeated WSU out of a 1-seed, and I doubt all four of those first four finish with two or fewer losses. I'm guessing two finish with two losses and two finish with three-four losses. I don't see a six/seven loss Kansas team being a one seed over an undefeated WSU.

What about San Diego St? They still only have one loss and have a great win at KU.

I don't see San Diego State jumping us if we're undefeated.

[shocktheheart]

Frankly I don't think Wichita is a lock on the 1 line with an undefeated record. Truth is, fate's out of their hand, and there's little difference between 33-0 and 31-2. The media will think it's big, but the selection committee isn't so easily swayed.[/quote]
I'd be shocked if we're looking at a number of 31-2 teams in a few weeks.

I'm not counting on WSU to be undefeated at all, but we especially shouldn't be writing off the remaining 15 or so games for the other teams in significantly better conferences. There will be a lot of losses still to come.

There are currently 11 teams with 2 losses or less. Only five of those have any chance of being ranked ahead of WSU. Only one of Michigan State/Wisconsin has a shot at finishing in that group (impossible for both to finish with two losses or less).

That leaves the competition for an undefeated WSU at Arizona, Syracuse, Michigan State/Wisconsin, Florida, and Kansas, based on SOS. Only five teams that can keep an undefeated WSU out of a 1-seed, and I doubt all four of those first four finish with two or fewer losses. I'm guessing two finish with two losses and two finish with three-four losses. I don't see a six/seven loss Kansas team being a one seed over an undefeated WSU.[/quote]

What about San Diego St? They still only have one loss and have a great win at KU.[/quote]
I don't see San Diego State jumping us if we're undefeated.[/quote]

I disagree...a one loss San Diego St will jump WSU even if they are undefeated. MWC is tougher than the Valley this year and them running the table in that conference would be quite a feat.

[2livewu]

I just watched the highlights of the jays game and can say without question that we'd have gotten destroyed against that Creighton team shooting that way. I think everyone would have. Hell SIU and Loyola might have given up 130 points.

With all due respect, go eff yourself. CU shot 70% against WSU IN OMAHA last season and won by 12.

They'll never shoot it that well again, and they sure as hell wouldn't against a WSU team that plays defense, unlike the shell of a team Nova put on the floor Monday.

For the record, there are a number of teams capable of beating WSU this year, but it sure as hell wouldn't be a pillow soft bunch of birds from up north. They would be battling the Trees for a solid 2nd at this point.

[TheAsianSensation]

I'd be shocked if we're looking at a number of 31-2 teams in a few weeks.

I'm not counting on WSU to be undefeated at all, but we especially shouldn't be writing off the remaining 15 or so games for the other teams in significantly better conferences. There will be a lot of losses still to come.

There are currently 11 teams with 2 losses or less. Only five of those have any chance of being ranked ahead of WSU. Only one of Michigan State/Wisconsin has a shot at finishing in that group (impossible for both to finish with two losses or less).

That leaves the competition for an undefeated WSU at Arizona, Syracuse, Michigan State/Wisconsin, Florida, and Kansas, based on SOS. Only five teams that can keep an undefeated WSU out of a 1-seed, and I doubt all four of those first four finish with two or fewer losses. I'm guessing two finish with two losses and two finish with three-four losses. I don't see a six/seven loss Kansas team being a one seed over an undefeated WSU.

First things first....a 27-6 Kansas team is jumping a 33-0 Wichita team. There will be rioting as a result, but it'll happen. Kansas is headed straight for a historically strong SoS. Like, the strongest SoS we've seen in 20 years kind of strong. This is coming. This is going to happen.

I actually think WSU is in good shape against Florida because the SEC as a whole is in trouble. And I think 'Zone could legit run the table, but we'll set that aside for now.

I think your general mistake is you're doing the math from the perspective of the losses. That's part of the battle, but the other part is the quality wins. A Michigan St with 3 or 4 losses would mean they would have a treasure chest of quality wins. Same with Wisky.

If I had to guess who the 1 line will be, I'd put my money on a 31-2 Arizona, 29-4 Michigan St, 27-6 Kansas and....31-2 Wichita still. But they'll have to hold off Syracuse, any Big 12 team that emerges as a clear #2, any B1G team that emerges as a clear #2, or an outside run from Kentucky or Louisville which causes everyone to lose their sanity briefly.

Also worth pointing out UMass or San Diego St are theoretically in play too, but I think they'll lose a couple of times. UMass in particular has been playing with fire the whole season. They won't get in Wichita's way, although they're definitely in top 4 seed talk.

[DoubleJayAlum]

On top of that, WSU may not be able to secure a single top 50 win out of the conference.

You're predicting that the #19 team in the country won't have a top 50 RPI at the end of the year?

I worded that poorly. What I was trying to say is that it is entirely possible that WSU will not be able to book a single top 50 win from within the MVC.

The danger, if that happens, is what Asian Sensation was kicking around. The national pundits will say that WSU should have scheduled even tougher in the noncon to make up for the weak conference. Is it fair? NO. But that is what will be said and if there is anything I've learned over the past decade, it is that nobody cares whether it is fair or not, nor do they care about the scheduling difficulties of mid majors, nor do they care about the argument that mids can only get quality match-ups through road games or MTEs. Probably better expect to hear nat'l guys to say that "WSU should have gone on the road", "WSU should have played in a tougher MTE", etc. because it is coming.

Also, as Asian Sensation suggested, the 100-110 strength of schedule is going to be trumpeted more loudly this year when you have so many really strong resumes at the top. Gonzaga was yelled about in some corners last year and their SOS was around the 60s, around 40 or so places better than WSU's will be and they weren't even up against the same caliber of 1/2 seeds that WSU will be up against.

As Al Davis said, "Just win baby." Every loss for WSu probably costs them a seed line from here on out. Its absolutely crazy to think that, but it is also true. With the conference ranked 11th and with a differential of only about .005 separating them from the 12th ranked MAC (!!!!), there just isn't going to be much credit given for conference wins. Heck, I could make an argument that Creighton and WSU haven't gotten much credit for conference wins the past two years either, but that lack of respect will be even more magnified this year. It absolutely sucks, its probably unfair, but that is what is going to happen.

[shocktheheart]

On top of that, WSU may not be able to secure a single top 50 win out of the conference.

You're predicting that the #19 team in the country won't have a top 50 RPI at the end of the year?

I worded that poorly. What I was trying to say is that it is entirely possible that WSU will not be able to book a single top 50 win from within the MVC.

The danger, if that happens, is what Asian Sensation was kicking around. The national pundits will say that WSU should have scheduled even tougher in the noncon to make up for the weak conference. Is it fair? NO. But that is what will be said and if there is anything I've learned over the past decade, it is that nobody cares whether it is fair or not, nor do they care about the scheduling difficulties of mid majors, nor do they care about the argument that mids can only get quality match-ups through road games or MTEs. Probably better expect to hear nat'l guys to say that "WSU should have gone on the road", "WSU should have played in a tougher MTE", etc. because it is coming.

Also, as Asian Sensation suggested, the 100-110 strength of schedule is going to be trumpeted more loudly this year when you have so many really strong resumes at the top. Gonzaga was yelled about in some corners last year and their SOS was around the 60s, around 40 or so places better than WSU's will be and they weren't even up against the same caliber of 1/2 seeds that WSU will be up against.

As Al Davis said, "Just win baby." Every loss for WSu probably costs them a seed line from here on out. Its absolutely crazy to think that, but it is also true. With the conference ranked 11th and with a differential of only about .005 separating them from the 12th ranked MAC (!!!!), there just isn't going to be much credit given for conference wins. Heck, I could make an argument that Creighton and WSU haven't gotten much credit for conference wins the past two years either, but that lack of respect will be even more magnified this year. It absolutely sucks, its probably unfair, but that is what is going to happen.

Totally agree. I want WSU as a #1 seed, but I don't want to hear from all the talking heads on how they didn't earn it. WSU can't help the strength of the Valley, just need to keep winning.