2013-2014 Bracketology thread

[ShoxNAwe]

The latest from SI:

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/colleg ... gan-state/

[TheAsianSensation]

I knew there was going to be rioting about Kansas this season, but Lunardi just started it a month earlier than I thought:

http://insider.espn.go.com/mens-college ... -no-1-seed


Cliff notes: "Even though I had Wichita ahead of Villanova, then jumped 'Nova over Wichita, and now I have to jump Wichita to the 1 line, instead, I'll jump Kansas to the 1 line!"

ahahahahahahahaha

[shocktheheart]

I knew there was going to be rioting about Kansas this season, but Lunardi just started it a month earlier than I thought:

http://insider.espn.go.com/mens-college ... -no-1-seed


Cliff notes: "Even though I had Wichita ahead of Villanova, then jumped 'Nova over Wichita, and now I have to jump Wichita to the 1 line, instead, I'll jump Kansas to the 1 line!"

ahahahahahahahaha

Not suprising...going to take at most a one loss record and some help for a #1 seed.

[ShoxNAwe]

Lunardi now has KU in the last #1 slot instead of WSU. In a video clip I just saw, both he and the other commentator said that it wasn't WSU's fault that they aren't on the #1 line. There's no game from here on in the regular season that can propel them upward, according to them.

That's pretty hard to argue with. We don't control the schedule at this point. Kinda missing BracketBuster and the chance to play SDSU or some other Top 60 team that the voters respect.

[shocktheheart]

Lunardi now has KU in the last #1 slot instead of WSU. In a video clip I just saw, both he and the other commentator said that it wasn't WSU's fault that they aren't on the #1 line. There's no game from here on in the regular season that can propel them upward, according to them.

That's pretty hard to argue with. We don't control the schedule at this point. Kinda missing BracketBuster and the chance to play SDSU or some other Top 60 team that the voters respect.

Mountain West was never in bracketbusters. Actually since Michigan St lost WSU moves into the #1 spot along with KU, Syracuse, and Arizona.

http://insider.espn.go.com/mens-college ... basketball

[TheAsianSensation]

Update:
The 1 line: Arizona (20-0), Syracuse (19-0), Wichita St (20-0), Florida (17-2)
The 2 line: Michigan St (18-2), San Diego St (16-1), Kansas (15-4), Villanova (17-2)

There's a really weird situation brewing where Kansas may build the superior resume....but they lost to Florida and SDSU, so you really can't put them right ahead of both. I kinda wanted to put Kansas higher but I can't. I really don't feel good about Florida on the 1 line, at all, but I don't think I have alternatives.

Why is this relevant? With all that weirdness, the committee is more likely to elevate Wichita clear of it all, instead of trying to figure out where to insert Wichita in the middle of that gaggle below.

Last 4 in:
Providence
Tennessee
Arizona St
Stanford

Last 4 out:
Arkansas
*Southern Miss
Richmond
Dayton
*Harvard
St Mary's

Next 4 out:
Indiana St
LSU
*Toledo
Ole Miss
Boise St

The good news for indiana St - bubble messes in the Pac-12 and SEC have opened some avenues. Lots of teams in the bubble picture, but the raw difference in profile value is small between the cutline and ISU. There's a chance here.


Also, a bonus in this week's projection: Duke, as a protected seed, gets bounced from Raleigh because of other teams and gets sent to San Diego for the first 2 rounds

[TheAsianSensation]

One more thing to keep in mind, especially if Wichita ends up a 1 seed and Kansas a 2, or vice versa:

Top seeds are not placed in the bracket based on the S-curve, they are placed with geographic considerations. If Wichita gets placed in the South regional (Memphis) as a 1 seed, and Kansas is any 2 seed, Kansas will get placed in Wichita's bracket. Not because the NCAA wants to manipulate a Wichita/Kansas matchup, but because the South is the geographically preferred regional for Kansas.

Now, if Florida is also a 2 seed, and is above Kansas in the S-Curve, Florida gets geographic priority before Kansas. Therefore, Florida would get the South regional with Wichita instead of Kansas.

I figure as we head into February, misunderstandings about the bracket process will begin to surface. Everyone who thinks the NCAA manipulates their brackets to create compelling matchups is just wrong, and I'm here to prove them wrong.

[Cdizzle]

The NCAA manipulates the bracket to create compelling matchups.

[TheAsianSensation]

[TheAsianSensation]

My latest is below.

Keeping Wichita at #3 overall. Keeping Arizona ahead of Wichita for the same reason I had Michigan St ahead of Wichita earlier in the season: an overwhelming body of work and a reasonable loss.

More important is a lot of teams right behind them absorbed losses. There's a bit of a gap between SDSU and Kansas now.

Indiana St pretty much is in big trouble without a win over Wichita. Weird note: even if BracketBuster existed this year, I'm not sure if there would be anyone out there who could help, especially because CUSA boycotts it. Green Bay or Toledo would've been about it.



The 1 line: Syracuse (21-0), Arizona (21-1), Wichita St (22-0), Florida (19-2)
The 2 line: San Diego St (17-1), Kansas (16-5), Michigan St (19-3), Villanova (19-2)
The 3 line: Cincinnati (21-2), Creighton (18-3), Iowa St (16-4), Duke (17-5)
The 4 line: Michigan (16-5), Oklahoma St (16-5), Kentucky (16-5), Iowa (16-5)
The 5 line: Wisconsin (17-5), Texas (17-4), Memphis (15-5), Louisville (18-4)
The 6 line: Virginia (17-5), Oklahoma (17-5), Pittsburgh (18-4), St Louis (19-2)
The 7 line: UMass (17-4), Gonzaga (19-3), UCLA (17-5), UConn (17-4)
The 8 line: North Carolina (14-7), G. Washington (17-4), California (15-7), New Mexico (17-4)
The 9 line: Kansas St (15-7), VCU (18-4), Colorado (16-6), Minnesota (14-7)
The 10 line: Ohio St (16-5), Xavier (14-6), Oregon (15-6), Missouri (16-5)
The 11 line: Stanford (14-7), Baylor (12-7), Tennessee (13-7), Southern Miss (17-3)
The 12 line: SMU (17-5), Providence (16-6), Arizona St (16-6), Florida St (13-8), Green Bay (15-4), Toledo (17-3)
The 13 line: Harvard (16-3), Mercer (15-6), Delaware (16-7), UCSB (12-6)
The 14 line: North Carolina Central (13-5), Stephen F Austin (16-2), Georgia St (13-6), Canisius (16-6)
The 15 line: IPFW (15-6), Stony Brook (15-7), Murray St (11-8), American (13-7)
The 16 line: Weber St (9-7), Robert Morris (12-11), Utah Valley (11-8), Chattanooga (12-9), Coastal Carolina (10-9), Southern (9-10)

Last 4 in:
*Southern Miss
SMU
Providence
Arizona St
Florida St

Last 4 out:
LSU (14-6)
Indiana (14-8)
Dayton (14-8)
Ole Miss (15-6)

Next 4 out:
BYU (14-9)
*Toledo
St Joseph's (15-6)
Richmond (14-8)
Clemson (14-6)

Consideration board:
Georgetown (12-9), Marquette (12-10), NC State (14-8), Arkansas (13-8), St Mary's (15-7), Boise St (13-7), Indiana St (15-5), Louisiana Tech (17-5), *Green Bay, *Harvard