2013-2014 Bracketology thread

[TheAsianSensation]

Update: 1 line stays the same. But if I'm Wichita, I'm starting to worry about SDSU. They're assembling a quality resume, and WSU can't stay above them with a single loss if SDSU keeps winning.

Head to head with SDSU:

Road/neutral record: 10-0 vs. 10-0 - draw
Loss: SDSU lost to Arizona at home; Wichita no losses - advantage Wichita
Signature win: SDSU @ Kansas vs. Wichita @ St Louis - advantage SDSU
Vs. RPI Top 50: SDSU 2-1, WIchita 3-0 - advantage Wichita, although SDSU has 2 signature wins (N-Creighton as well) while Tennessee and N-BYU are a tier down. So you could argue this is even.
Vs. RPI Top 100: SDSU 6-1, Wichita 6-0 - draw, considering the loss is Arizona. SDSU's 51-100 wins are a sweep of Boise, Washington, and N-Marquette, which you could say is close to even with than a sweep of Indiana St and @Missouri St.
Cupcake wins: Wichita 5, SDSU 6 - draw
Vs. RPI 101-125: Wichita 8-0, SDSU 2-0 - big advantage Wichita, but the committee tends to lean towards marginalizing these wins. Still, a significant part of the story if the record vs. Top 100 is relatively even.
non-con SoS: Wichita 41, SDSU 67 - small advantage Wichita
overall SoS: Wichita 81, SDSU 87 - basically even, but I expect SDSU to slowly overtake Wichita here
average RPI win: Wichita 141, SDSU 155 - small advantage Wichita, but again, SDSU has a better schedule remaining to improve this stat
remaining quality win chances: Wichita is out; SDSU has a home-and-home with New Mexico in its hip pocket. Advantage SDSU. This is a big one: SDSU has 2 more Top 50 win chances in the hopper.

Summary - SDSU is going to hop Wichita with a single Wichita loss. And the committee is human, so the "only 1 mid major can be a 1 seed!" storyline could be in play.

[shockem]

The flip side of that narrative is that SDSU has 2 of its toughest games remaining. It could very likely split with New Mexico.

[TheAsianSensation]

The flip side of that narrative is that SDSU has 2 of its toughest games remaining. It could very likely split with New Mexico.

If they split with UNM and Wichita loses once, I think SDSU wins the battle.

[rlh04d]

I gave up on any hope of WSU getting a 1 seed with even one loss a long time ago.

It's undefeated or bust.

I'm very confident in a top three seed either way at this point, though, so if we don't get a one seed, that's still going to be an incredible position.

[Shockerfan13]

Just get a protected seed. It's all about match ups anyway, not so much seeds as the committee gets some wrong each year. It's cool to say you are a 1 seed, but at end of the day match ups are more important. I realize the probability of going farther increases with the better seed. But the top 3 seeds are usually in pretty good shape to make it to at least the 2nd weekend. Shox should definitely be a top 3 seed barring some kind of a collapse. So I am perfectly happy right now!

[Shockerfan13]

Plus I kind of hope the Shox do get under seeded some. Make that chip on the shoulder even bigger. Feed the beast!

[mvcfan]

I gave up on any hope of WSU getting a 1 seed with even one loss a long time ago.

It's undefeated or bust.

I don't agree with this undefeated or bust statement. A 2 or 3 seed with one loss would not seem like a bust to me.

[Bear4Life]

I gave up on any hope of WSU getting a 1 seed with even one loss a long time ago.

It's undefeated or bust.

I don't agree with this undefeated or bust statement. A 2 or 3 seed with one loss would not seem like a bust to me.

Think he was just saying that in regards to getting a 1 seed...They can't lose a game or they will get a 2/3 seed...Not that this is a bad thing by any means, but only shot he/I see for them getting a 1 seed (because of the biases against "mid-majors") is to go undefeated (or bust).

[MSUDuo]

Get a 1 seed. Become the first 1 seed to lose to a 16 seed.

[LanceShock]

Get a 1 seed. Become the first 1 seed to lose to a 16 seed.

Nothing would say the Valley sucks like WSU going undefeated in the Valley and then losing to a 16 seed.