Updated MVCfans.com Arch Madness projections

[Wufan]

This year's regional BCS games for the Valley:

Bradley - @ Illinois - L
Drake - Iowa neutral - L
Evansville - @ Indiana - L
IlSU - @ Northwestern - W
ISU - @ ND - W
LUC - None
MSU - None
UNI - ISU neutral - L
SIU - @ Missouri - L
WSU - None

That's 7 regional games we got with BCS schools. Every school should add an exempt tourney and find one more BCS school. Add at least one more game against a MWC, A-10, Big East, or AAC school, and 4 more against conferences ranked between 10 and 15. That's 10 quality games and everybody wins.

[Wufan]

I agree. I'm not saying they were great wins from that stand point, and I agree that they help RPI and SOS. I really was just making the comparison that WSU and ISUr are in the same boat when trying to play the perceived best teams in the state.

Gotcha! Add MSU to that group.

[agrinut]

I agree. I'm not saying they were great wins from that stand point, and I agree that they help RPI and SOS. I really was just making the comparison that WSU and ISUr are in the same boat when trying to play the perceived best teams in the state.

Gotcha! Add MSU to that group.

MSU can't even get a game with SLU right now because of what happened in 2010 and UMC isn't gonna take a bears game anytime soon because of 99. We have had a home and home with Arkansas, Auburn, and Oklahoma State all in the past 6 years but still hard to get a BCS on the schedule other than a 1 and done. Next year the Bears will get a chance at Purdue, Kansas State or St. John's on neutral court in KC.

[TheAsianSensation]

This year's regional BCS games for the Valley:

Bradley - @ Illinois - L
Drake - Iowa neutral - L
Evansville - @ Indiana - L
IlSU - @ Northwestern - W
ISU - @ ND - W
LUC - None
MSU - None
UNI - ISU neutral - L
SIU - @ Missouri - L
WSU - None

That's 7 regional games we got with BCS schools. Every school should add an exempt tourney and find one more BCS school. Add at least one more game against a MWC, A-10, Big East, or AAC school, and 4 more against conferences ranked between 10 and 15. That's 10 quality games and everybody wins.

Easier said than done.

For example, Bradley's shot at Illinois came because of a MTE. In order to get the one chance at Illinois, Bradley had to absorb 3 other games: Jacksonville St (RPI 307), Alabama St (RPI 242 and in the SWAC which destroys your SoS), and Chicago St (RPI 199 and in the WAC which destroys your SoS). And Illinois ended up being marginal this year (RPI 87).

Trying to get the BCS school actually severely hurt Bradley's SoS this year.

[pafan]

That's 7 regional games we got with BCS schools. Every school should add an exempt tourney and find one more BCS school. Add at least one more game against a MWC, A-10, Big East, or AAC school, and 4 more against conferences ranked between 10 and 15. That's 10 quality games and everybody wins.

I'll take your advice and apply it to Evansville's schedule this year.

Evansville vs conferences 1-5:
@ Indiana, @ Xavier, vs. Butler
Evansville vs. conferences 6-10
None.
Evansville vs. Conferences 11-15
vs. Miami-Oh, @Ohio (#12 MAC) @IUPUI (#15 Summit), v. Valparaiso (#14 Horizon)
Evansville vs. Conferences 16+
@Murray State (#24 OVC), vs. Mercer (#23 Atlantic Sun), vs. Jackson State, vs Grambling (#32 SWAC)
Evansville vs. non-D1:
vs. Martin Methodist, vs. Anderson College

Let me mystically drop those last 6 games and add:
Vanderbilt, St. Louis, IPFW, Northern Illinois, Middle Tenn. St., Western Ky.
Let's say these were all neutral court (RPI math is easier) and Evansville goes 2-4.
RPI Record: 7.2-14.4 (0.3333)
RPI Opp Record: 266-243 (0.543)
Raw RPI: 0.4841

Evansville's RPI moves from 230th to 198th.

Let me instead propose that Evansville keeps its actual schedule, but wins vs. Jackson State and @ Murray State, which moves the RPI to 182nd.

TLDR: A decent schedule is good, but if you have a crap schedule and don't win, it doesn't matter anyway.

[Ali]

No major changes after 11 games. Looking forward to the first graphical representation of the probabilities chart which we'll post next week.

link: The MVC Report - February 7 Arch Madness Projections

UNI looking like a Thursday night team now. Didn't see that coming.

[Ricardo del Rio]

No major changes after 11 games. Looking forward to the first graphical representation of the probabilities chart which we'll post next week.

link: The MVC Report - February 7 Arch Madness Projections

UNI looking like a Thursday night team now. Didn't see that coming.

Big Purple will not be playing on Thursday. Something is all wacky, but the basketball goddess will get it straighten out by March 2.

[Wufan]

No major changes after 11 games. Looking forward to the first graphical representation of the probabilities chart which we'll post next week.

link: The MVC Report - February 7 Arch Madness Projections

UNI looking like a Thursday night team now. Didn't see that coming.

Big Purple will not be playing on Thursday. Something is all wacky, but the basketball goddess will get it straighten out by March 2.

I see UNI overtaking either BU or SIU (both on a hot streak at the moment, but both have pending games with WSU). ISU red is on a down trend…but so is UNI. It's going to be one game or a tie breaker between 6th and 7th.