Serious Question for WSU and other Valley fans

[Chuck A]

Not here to flame or troll, but to make some queries. Some of the Wichita State fans have made mention of wanting the school to leave the Valley for "greener" pastures. Lack of football is one problem...geography is another. Both of those can be overcome however because if a program can help a conference make money, anything is possible.

If Wichita State makes another deep run into the Dance, say Elite 8 or even another Final Four, do they then get a serious look and possible invite from another higher level League like the MWC, A-10 or even Big East? Coach Marshall seemingly will be at WSU for the foreseeable future, so there are no questions there. If that does happen, what happens to the Valley? Do other programs begin to panic sensing a level of instability for the league because it would now be two prime time programs leaving in consecutive years?

[rlh04d]

No one knows.

The A10 seems to only be interested in the east coast. They're progressively marginalizing Saint Louis/Dayton as the western members. Likely because they expect them to leave.

AAC might go after WSU, with Navy joining as a partial member in 2015, I think. They'll have an odd number of basketball teams, and WSU is close to Tulsa and other western members.

MWC .. Who knows. Big East ... WSU doesn't seem to fit the profile.

It's all really a guessing game. My guess is that if WSU keeps performing at a high level, the AAC will be pushing for them soon. And WSU would have to go for the improved television coverage, money, and schedule strength.

I don't think there would be much else done to the Valley, simply because most teams don't have options.

[Wufan]

Most WSU fans want the same thing as other fans: to play in a high profile and competitive conference. We might have a little more to gripe about right now than other schools, but we also don't fit in well with the other conferences that might consider us.

[Dean Wormer]

This is probably better off-season talk, but I think if there is any more defections, it won't be driven by Wichita State.

IMO, I can see Mo State and or UNI making a move based on football. MSU to Conf USA while UNI would be very attractive to the MAC. Illinois State could also tag along to the MAC. I am not sure about the football commitments at SIU and INS, they would probably try to hang on to a Valley, and land in the OVC if need be.

At this point, the Valley is 4 privies and 3 state schools. It could survive at this point with an influx of schools such as Belmont, Detroit, etc, but it would be driven by the privies without football, which could send INS and SIU to the OVC or possibly MAC. I could also see the privies break off at this point and pick up a Dayton, Detroit, Belmont and Duquesne and have a little Big East. Or the Valley evolves to this with WSU in tow.

There is no question WSU is the most successful program in the conference, but, they may have the least options of anyone because of football. Football is driving everything right now. Geography is another factor. SLU is as good as gone from the A-10, and without them, that league is an east coast centered league, not any more attractive than the Valley.

[TheAsianSensation]

At some point, Wichita could Butler their way into a conference. Butler has no business being in the Big East, but they forced everyone's hand. Wichita can get to that state eventually.

A-10 - won't happen for the reasons detailed above. A-10 is refocusing as an eastern conference, and St Louis is going to be gone, period.

The one chance: A Wichita/Bradley/Drake western package for the A-10, with maybe one other midwest school of choice.

Mountain West - I still think there's a chance, because they need a non-football member to balance out football-only Hawaii. The smoking gun to me is their RPI this year. They will be 8th or 9th often in the future, dropping a couple spots because of realignment ahead of them. They can see WSU as a big upgrade to its product.

I can't imagine the MWC sitting at 11 long-term. The options they'd want are Gonzaga (probably wouldn't move), BYU (would require a bit of reconciliation, but it's reasoanble), and stealth option Denver. I like Wichita's chances to beat them out for the invite.

AAC - they need a balancer for Navy. I think they address it eventually. Of course, the problem is that VCU could also play that role, and is a geographic doppleganger of Navy for travel purposes. That allows both football and basketball to keep the same divisions if they want.

Big East - if they wait a few more years, and Wichita keeps making final fours, they'll force their hand. Maybe a VCU/WSU package would help sell the idea of public schools in the BEast.

Big 12 - This is my "OK, TAS, put down the crack pipe" theory. If BYU needs to find a conference home in the P5, but doesn't want to move its other sports, I could see the Big 12 add BYU for football-only, to create a title game. If then the Big 12 decides they want a balancer for the football-only move, Wichita is the geographic fit.

[MissouriValleyUnite]

The Wichita fans have laid their scenarios out nicely, so I won't reiterate any of that. One development that uneases me a bit is the Sun Belt's quest for a solidified 12th member. Their first choice appears to be James Madison, but the JMU folks seems to be shooting for the MAC or CUSA. Another dynamic is that Arkansas State is keeping its options open and kicking the MAC's tires. Regardless, JMU is the dynamo here. If the Dukes successfully obtain a MAC/CUSA invite, Missouri State appears to be the favorite, at least the Arkansas State brass has allegedly lobbied for them.

Do I like that move by MSU? No, not one Sun Belt team has finished in the Top-25, and the conference is only likely to dilute further. That's football purgatory, and MSU historically draws poorly at the FCS level. I can't believe they'd trash all their MVC rivalries for that + a very mediocre basketball conference - a conference that's had less stability than a tilt-a-wheel on its last summer carnival run. MSU is financially iffy too.

However, their leader seems fixated on this.

As for potential expansion candidates, I wouldn't touch Valparaiso. They do not own share in the Chicago market, and their very skilled coach covers up poor facilities.

It remains to be seen if the above logic can be applied to Belmont, whom I do like. Nashville as a city will buy into a foreign product if it's a good product (i.e. Hockey was pretty much foreign to Nashville, and the city turned the Predators' arena into one of the NHL's loudest for the last 5 years). I like the idea of tapping into Nashville with a successful program.

A Bruce Pearl-led Milwaukee was a fine candidate, not anymore. Their financials have tanked, and the Panthers subsequently downgraded in arenas.

I'm no fan of UIC. Like Loyola and DePaul, they offer minimal presence in Chicago. If Chicago bought in, that might change, but that's an all-in pro sports city.

Although I'm intrigued by the Detroit market, their arena/finances/alumni involvement are poor.

Denver/Little Rock/Arlington/UMKC (only if MSU went FBS) might serve a purpose if long-term success was ever sustained, improbable for the foreseeable future.

People rag on NDSU, but Fargo's decent-sized, the metro's growing, the fan base is impressive, they've successfully raised capital, and they're somewhat consistent in the Top-100 RPI. Would the Fighting Bison swallow a Huntsville/Anchorage/Fairbanks hockey deal where they subsidize the mile difference between NDSU and the opponent's furthest school? NDSU would only grow in the Valley, IMO, but I want no part of the Jackrabbits.

I envy the recruits Prohm is reeling into Murray State. That program's sustained success for 25 years. People will question the market, but at least the program is a proven commodity. Could serve as a bridge to Belmont (adding 2 states), and would fit in with 3 pre-established rivalries in the Valley.

Finally, I like Oral Roberts and how much Tulsa appreciates the Valley. ORU's on stronger footing financially, they have an Elite-8 in their arsenal, and an arena that fits in nicely with the Valley. Tulsa's worth it, IMO.


In summary,
After Saint Louis and Dayton (<1% chance), the only schools I'd sniff are Belmont, Oral Roberts, NDSU (under the subsidy I pointed out... being realistic from a likely MVC need), and Murray State -- in that order. I'd actually consider moving New Mexico State in front of 3, maybe all 4, but I just don't see the Aggies carrying enough votes.

[uniftw]

IMO, I can see Mo State and or UNI making a move based on football. MSU to Conf USA while UNI would be very attractive to the MAC. Illinois State could also tag along to the MAC. I am not sure about the football commitments at SIU and INS, they would probably try to hang on to a Valley, and land in the OVC if need be.

As of now UNI has no plans to do anything with football. There was a lot of talk about a year/year and a half go following some comments from AD Dannen but that talk (and Dannen's comments) have cooled since our new president has come in. Not sure why on that but it is what it is.

Dannen has said, for quite some time though, that UNI will do nothing with football that jeopardizes the MVC and UNI's position in it. However, he also added something to the effect of "If the current state of the MVC changes we are more than open to reevaluating that stance". Basically saying if CU, WSU, and probably a "peer" like ISUr takes off UNI will look elsewhere as well.

The MAC is where most FBS proponents at UNI want to see us land, if a move is made*. Most think that UNI paired with Illinois State or Southern Illinois would be a nice travel grouping to add to the MAC. Honestly, travel wise it would. However, I'm not sure the MAC is too interested in any MVC schools right now. Their focus seems to be, much like the A-10, east. I'm not sure SIU is wanting to move FBS. I'm also not sure ISUr would put the commitment that the MAC would want.

UNI would have the want to put the committment to it, it would be if the state of Iowa and the fringe of the fan base would back it. There's a school of thought that moving FBS would force some of the fringe fans (dual fans as UNI fans call them) to pick UNI or Iowa/Iowa State more and possibly grown our fan base by being seen as "more equal" to them being in the same division. The other side is that we wouldn't be a P5 school, would still be seen as a lower level, and would drive the fringe away if we didn't win every single year at the FBS level, and would struggle to draw against teams that UNI has very little history with.

In my, slightly educated and slightly uneducated, views UNI could be a very damn good basketball school without football. Take that couple million each year and dump it into men's basketball and wrestling (which is currently #4 in the nation). Still wouldn't have WSU money but would be pretty damn good year in and out. Now, that will NEVER happen at UNI. It's a very fine balance at UNI between football and basketball school. ISUb, ISUr, and SIU are all very clearly basketball first schools and I believe MSU is as well. UNI is the closest to a football school but doesn't have a true "we are a football" or " we are a basketball school" image. Being where we are geographically the school is a "football" school by nature. The state is football crazy. Much like Texas towns in Iowa completely shut down on Friday nights (now I realize Texas is a whole different level but you get my gist). However, the MVC has forced UNI to grow a basketball image and the idea of a basketball image (A sport that makes money EVERY year) has grown on a lot of folks in CF/UNI. That makes realignment tough for UNI. Football first conferences are leery because UNI doesn't dump as much money into football as other football first FCS schools (Montana, Montana State, App State, North Dakota State, Georgia Southern, James Madison, etc...) do and don't know that a full commitment would be there (though I firmly believe it would be). However, the fact that UNI has football and supports it to the level it does drives basketball focused conferences into being leery as well. Very few schools have football but focus on basketball. Georgetown, Villanova (though they've had success), Richmond (who has had past success), Butler, Drake (fits the same mold), etc.. all have football but it is a giant after thought to the school, athletic department, fan base, etc... are all great to basketball conferences.

Schools like UNI don't have a true "identity". UNI may be forced into picking one here in the next 3-4 years.

Missouri State may fall into that same category but they seem to have the eye of the Sun Belch who seems like when they need a member are desperate for anyone with a pulse. I saw a list from a respectable source a while back showing that they had sent inquiries to about 35-40 schools.




As for Wichita State I don't know what to make of them. Basketball wise they are clearly a great get. The issue becomes they don't have football. Anything I could say about that has already been said hundreds of times. The MWC may take a non-FB member but it depends what happens with the playoff set up. The AAC will be an ever evolving deal for the next couple years. They seem to be a FB conference but have good basketball programs. Starting next year they have Cinci, UCONN, Houston, Memphis, SMU, USF, Temple, UCF, ECU, Tulane, Tulsa. I'm convinced Cinci and UCONN are looking for a way out ASAP and see Cinci as a B12 team as a bride to WVU at some point. The A10 is clearly looking east, and the Big East clearly has a profile they want institutions to be and WSU doesn't fit it. If WSU had football at the FCS level (that was a respectable program...wouldn't even have to be good) they'd be in the MWC or AAC in a freaking second. However, even if WSU wanted to start football and announced it tomorrow they are still probably 3-5 years from having a FBS program at a minimum. UNC-Charlotte is going FBS next year after a year of transition at the FCS level. They announced their program in 2010 or 2011 I believe and moved through their process REALLY quick compared to everyone else.





* - I have yet to read someone say they want to leave the MVC for the MAC in all sports if it means football leaving, but much like Dannen if the state of the MVC changes that position will change.

[moshock]

The only option I can see that works for WSU is the AAC. It may not be an option but it's the only one that works well for travel. Also, with Navy joining as a football only - the numbers work.

I've read some of the MSU comments about moving to the Sunbelt. I don't get it. The Sunbelt -on their best day- is not in the same realm in MBB as the MVC is on it's worst day. I'm curious to know what Agrinut, GLM, and the rest of the MSU posters think about this.

More than likely, the MVC will stay as it is for a while. There is a lot of young talent this season. Hopefully they all stay put. The MVC will be a better conference for the next few seasons.

[Ricardo del Rio]

Not here to flame or troll, but to make some queries. Some of the Wichita State fans have made mention of wanting the school to leave the Valley for "greener" pastures. Lack of football is one problem...geography is another. Both of those can be overcome however because if a program can help a conference make money, anything is possible.

If Wichita State makes another deep run into the Dance, say Elite 8 or even another Final Four, do they then get a serious look and possible invite from another higher level League like the MWC, A-10 or even Big East? Coach Marshall seemingly will be at WSU for the foreseeable future, so there are no questions there. If that does happen, what happens to the Valley? Do other programs begin to panic sensing a level of instability for the league because it would now be two prime time programs leaving in consecutive years?

1. The Shockers are moving to the ACC in 2014.
2. The MVC will merge with the SWAC in 2014.
3. Yes, there will be some panic, but it will be benign panic.

Dr. Rio

[rlh04d]

This is probably better off-season talk, but I think if there is any more defections, it won't be driven by Wichita State.

Meh. I think there is more chance of the MAC being on the outside of a future change in FBS football than there is of any non-Missouri State school moving conferences based on football.

If we're talking about movement from FCS to FBS, there are a whole lot of average basketball teams, average FCS football teams, in poor markets that could be expanded with. The existence of football isn't enough to drive conference realignment.

I think people get confused by this "football drives alignment!" talk. Money drives alignment. TV generates the money. At the higher levels, football drives the TV contracts ... but the Big East's significant financial advantage over the AAC shows that isn't true at all levels. If any team is to leave the MVC, it's because their addition to another conference will be a financial advantage to that conference. It's not a matter of football > basketball, other than the fact that football is a bigger revenue producer in television contracts. If a UNI or Illinois State were to move to the MAC, I would imagine that would actually be driven by their basketball programs, not their football programs ... no one wants to watch UNI football. The financial advantage to the MAC would have to be that the UNI basketball program would give the MAC's basketball conference better opportunities to make NCAA tournament revenue, and their football program wouldn't cost the conference money.

Money will drive all defections, because money runs college athletics.