2013-2014 Bracketology thread

[rlh04d]

I think Florida is the best team in college ball. Their poor game against Auburn notwithstanding.

Arizona I don't buy as a strong one seed anymore. They have a lot of road games coming up, and I expect them to drop 1-2 more. They're just not the same team without Ashley.

Syracuse instantly just became the worst of the one seeds. And Duke should take their one seed if they can win at home (and survive this ridiculous week they have). I think Syracuse might drop three-to-four more games before the NCAA Tournament.

I think it's closer than you think, but yeah, I'd lean Duke too in that scenario. Well, maybe. Syracuse still has pretty good peripherals (we can bag them for avoiding road games, but we have to give partial credit for Maui).

You also have to take away credit for having the 109th strongest nonconference schedule, despite the fact that Syracuse could schedule any team in the country they want. And refusing to play on the road. And having only the 60th best schedule in the country, despite the fact that they could easily schedule stronger. And the fact that a loss to Boston College at home might just be the single worst loss any ranked team has this year.

I think Syracuse is going to lose @Duke, @UVA, and split @Maryland/@FSU. I think Duke loses at most once more. That'll put Syracuse at 27-4, Duke at 25-6. But Syracuse will have a far worse loss than Duke, and Duke's SOS is 7 compared to Syracuse's 60. Duke's RPI will likely be higher in that scenario. Granted Syracuse would be 14-3 against the RPI top 100, 8-2 against top 50, compared to Duke's 10-5, 6-4. I'd still rather penalize Syracuse for their schedule and reward Duke.

[TheAsianSensation]

All reasonable thoughts, and probably how it will play out.

Unless Kansas, of course, barges through and takes the 1 seed instead.

[TheAsianSensation]

I don't need to see the end of Arizona/Utah.

The 1 line:
Florida, Wichita St, Syracuse, Arizona* (and if Arizona loses, give this to Kansas)

Arizona just isn't the same team.

Given Florida went into Rupp and won a few days ago, I want to see them handle @Ole Miss competently before giving #1 overall to Wichita.

[rlh04d]

Arizona just isn't the same team.

Told ya.

Bad time for them to hit their backloaded road schedule. Last three road games: loss to Cal, 2OT loss to Arizona State, OT win to Utah. Three more road games to go in the final five games. Even when Arizona was healthy they weren't winning road games handily.

[FearDaTrees]

Several "bubble" teams have lost in the last 2 days, opening up a small crack in the door for the Sycamores. RPIForecast still has ISU at the highest probability of 23-8 and an RPI of 39. Not sure we could get that high up without beating WSU, but if we can win out to the MVC CG, there should at least be a camera crew covering the Sycamores team on Selection Sunday.

[Wufan]

Several "bubble" teams have lost in the last 2 days, opening up a small crack in the door for the Sycamores. RPIForecast still has ISU at the highest probability of 23-8 and an RPI of 39. Not sure we could get that high up without beating WSU, but if we can win out to the MVC CG, there should at least be a camera crew covering the Sycamores team on Selection Sunday.

ISU needs to finish 5-1. That puts them squarely on the bubble, but I think that a 25 win ISU has more right to a bid then OSU or Baylor.

[Play Angry]

It's a shame, but ISUb's odds at an at-large are slim to none.

They will still only have 1 win against the RPI Top 100 (and zero against the Top 50) if they win out until Sunday in St. Louis. Their RPI would be around 40, but teams with better resumes have been excluded in droves (many without even serious consideration) over the last decade. Southern Miss last year (RPI of 27, 6 top 100 wins), Missouri State in 2011 (swept second place Wichita State, who was also in the top 50), Wichita State in 2011, and the list goes on....and on...and on. No team with just 1 top 100 victory has ever received an at-large bid to the tournament, and it's not about to start with Indiana State.

Two things really screwed ISUb this season. First, Notre Dame sucks and that robbed them of what was supposed to be a resume defining victory. The Irish were meh before Jerian Grant left and have been just plain bad after. Second, losing to Tulsa in Alaska saddled the Sycamores with a second D2 opponent (the committee has frowned on having more than one of these in the past) and cost them the chance to play Harvard, a borderline Top 50 team. The opportunity cost from the choke against the Golden Hurricane was huge.

I am pulling hard for the Trees because it gives WSU the opportunity to load up on Top 50 wins and beef up our resume. They will not, however, be receiving an at-large bid.

ISUb's only real hope at this point is winning St. Louis.

[shocktheheart]

It's a shame, but ISUb's odds at an at-large are slim to none.

They will still only have 1 win against the RPI Top 100 (and zero against the Top 50) if they win out until Sunday in St. Louis. Their RPI would be around 40, but teams with better resumes have been excluded in droves (many without even serious consideration) over the last decade. Southern Miss last year (RPI of 27, 6 top 100 wins), Missouri State in 2011 (swept second place Wichita State, who was also in the top 50), Wichita State in 2011, and the list goes on....and on...and on. No team with just 1 top 100 victory has ever received an at-large bid to the tournament, and it's not about to start with Indiana State.

Two things really screwed ISUb this season. First, Notre Dame sucks and that robbed them of what was supposed to be a resume defining victory. The Irish were meh before Jerian Grant left and have been just plain bad after. Second, losing to Tulsa in Alaska saddled the Sycamores with a second D2 opponent (the committee has frowned on having more than one of these in the past) and cost them the chance to play Harvard, a borderline Top 50 team. The opportunity cost from the choke against the Golden Hurricane was huge.

I am pulling hard for the Trees because it gives WSU the opportunity to load up on Top 50 wins and beef up our resume. They will not, however, be receiving an at-large bid.

ISUb's only real hope at this point is winning St. Louis.

I was just thinking how Indiana State's resume kind of reminds me of WSU's a couple times before 2012. They weren't even on the lips of the talking heads come selection Sunday.

[TheAsianSensation]

Seeing Southern Miss miss last year probably seals Indiana St's fate this year. Similar situations.

This is shaping up to be the most trivial bracketology thread in MVC history. There's a bit of drama on the 1 line, but none on the bubble, and none on the NIT bubble either. The only real mystery is how badly the NIT committee is going to seed Indiana St because of their incompetency.

[wsushox1]

Creighton has an outside shot a 1 seed. They really do. A lot of teams infront of them have to continue to lose. But it could happen.......