2013-2014 Bracketology thread

[TheAsianSensation]

Yeah, I think there's some cushion there, but Kansas in particular could erase that over time. Wichita could stay on the 1 line with a loss....for a couple of weeks, until someone else's profile caught up.

1) Florida/Wichita/Syracuse/Arizona
2) Kansas/Duke/...Michigan St?/SDSU
3) Creighton/Nova/Wisky/...St Louis? sure why not, St Louis

[rlh04d]

Yeah, I think there's some cushion there, but Kansas in particular could erase that over time. Wichita could stay on the 1 line with a loss....for a couple of weeks, until someone else's profile caught up.

1) Florida/Wichita/Syracuse/Arizona
2) Kansas/Duke/...Michigan St?/SDSU
3) Creighton/Nova/Wisky/...St Louis? sure why not, St Louis

Only three weeks left for people to catch up >=)

Kansas could certainly erase that quickly over time ... and I think they'll end up as a one seed. But the teams that have an opportunity to erase that have that opportunity because they have a number of games left against teams that could beat them.

Michigan State already looks like a weaker 2 seed to me, and I won't be surprised at all if they lose @Michigan tomorrow. I think Duke takes Syracuse's one-seed as Syracuse drops another two-to-three games before Selection Sunday (@UVA, either @Maryland or @FSU, ACC loss to Duke or UVA), while I think Duke wins out the rest of the regular season.

[rlh04d]

Michigan State already looks like a weaker 2 seed to me, and I won't be surprised at all if they lose @Michigan tomorrow.

And it happens. Michigan with the 9 point win and the sweep.

I don't think Michigan State deserves a two seed.

Compare them to just Creighton now:

Michigan State vs Creighton
Top 25: 4-3 vs 2-1
Top 50: 6-4 vs 6-2
Top 100: 9-5 vs 12-4
RPI: 16 vs 7
SOS: 39 vs 25
Non-Con SOS: 71 vs 50

They also have a common opponent: Creighton's 15 point win at home over Nebraska, Michigan State's 9 point loss at home to Nebraska.

The only thing I would give Michigan State over Creighton right now is that Michigan State is 4-1 on a neutral court, to Creighton's 1-2.

[FearDaTrees]

Well now we don't have to worry about Duke jumping Wichita in the polls, and perhaps the S-Curve.

No chance Arizona wins at Colorado, I like Duke's chances against Syracuse, so we're now one Marshall Henderson explosion away from Wichita being #1 on the S-Curve, the polls, and everywhere else.

You owe me 1 billion internet dollars. I accept paypal.

[TheAsianSensation]

Well now we don't have to worry about Duke jumping Wichita in the polls, and perhaps the S-Curve.

No chance Arizona wins at Colorado, I like Duke's chances against Syracuse, so we're now one Marshall Henderson explosion away from Wichita being #1 on the S-Curve, the polls, and everywhere else.

You owe me 1 billion internet dollars. I accept paypal.

welp

crap

[TheAsianSensation]

Switching back Arizona and Syracuse, I guess. I finally docked Michigan St down to the 3 line, moved some up, including Wisconsin, a stealth 1 seed threat. San Diego St stays on my 2 line , but it's a really tough line for me to hold. I'm possibly being cruel to Villanova.

Further down, Indiana St is only about 8-10 spots above the probable NIT bubble. Tread carefully.

Missouri St and Illinois St will be locks to receive EIEIO invitations, if they want them. UNI as well, although they obviously have to finish .500 for the CIT. Drake theoretically could be eligible for the CIT as well, but at this stage I doubt if they even get invited.


The 1 line: Florida (25-2), Wichita St (28-0), Arizona (25-2), Syracuse (25-2)
The 2 line: Kansas (21-6), Duke (22-6), Creighton (23-4), San Diego St (21-3)
The 3 line: Villanova (24-3), Wisconsin (22-5), Michigan St (22-6), St Louis (24-2)
The 4 line: Michigan (19-7), Cincinnati (24-4), Iowa St (21-5), Virginia (23-5)
The 5 line: North Carolina (20-7), Ohio St (22-6), Kentucky (21-6), Louisville (23-4)
The 6 line: Iowa (19-7), Memphis (20-6), UMass (21-5), UCLA (21-6)
The 7 line: Oklahoma (20-7), Texas (20-7), UConn (21-6), New Mexico (21-5)
The 8 line: SMU (22-6), Kansas St (18-9), Colorado (20-8), VCU (20-7)
The 9 line: Arizona St (19-8), California (18-9), Stanford (18-8), George Washington (20-7)
The 10 line: Gonzaga (22-6), Pittsburgh (20-7), BYU (19-10), St Joseph's (19-7)
The 11 line: Baylor (16-9), Georgetown (16-11), Xavier (18-9), St John's (18-10), Missouri (19-8)
The 12 line: Minnesota (16-10), Oregon (18-8), Green Bay (19-5), North Dakota St (18-6), Middle Tennessee (19-7)
The 13 line: Mercer (19-7), Belmont (20-8), New Mexico St (20-8), Iona (19-8)
The 14 line: Western Michigan (17-8), Delaware (20-9), Harvard (21-4), Boston (20-9)
The 15 line: Stephen F Austin (23-2), North Carolina Central (19-5), UC Santa Barbara (16-7), Georgia St (18-7)
The 16 line: Davidson (16-11), Vermont (17-9), Robert Morris (18-11), Weber St (13-9), VMI (13-10), Alabama St (12-9)

Bubble in:
Colorado, VCU, Arizona St, California, Stanford, George Washington, *Gonzaga, Pittsburgh, BYU

Next 4 in:
St Joseph's
Baylor
Georgetown
Xavier

Last 4 in:
St John's
Missouri
Minnesota
Oregon

Last 4 out:
Oklahoma St (17-10)
Providence (18-10)
Tennessee (15-11)
Richmond (18-9)

Next 4 out:
Arkansas (18-9)
Florida St (16-11)
LSU (16-10)
Dayton (19-8)

Bubble inception: WE NEED TO GO DEEPER
Nebraska (16-10)
West Virginia (15-12)
Southern Miss (21-5)
Clemson (17-9)
Indiana St (19-7)
Toledo (22-4)
Ole Miss (16-11)
*Green Bay
Marquette (16-11)

[Play Angry]

Can't find much to disagree with in that projection.

Good job and thanks for doing this every year, TAS.

[rlh04d]

I like those seeds better.

I think it's funny with all the talk of the weakness of the MVC, Creighton is having a better year against the Big East than they ever had against the MVC.

[Mike]

I like those seeds better.

I think it's funny with all the talk of the weakness of the MVC, Creighton is having a better year against the Big East than they ever had against the MVC.

I think that has more to do with the quality of Creighton's team this year than it has to do with the relative strength of the MVC vs. the Big East (new). Lunardi is projecting as many as 5 BE teams in the 2014 NCAA tournament.

[Red]

I like those seeds better.

I think it's funny with all the talk of the weakness of the MVC, Creighton is having a better year against the Big East than they ever had against the MVC.

And Wichita State might actually win in STL. Looks like Creighton leaving was a win-win for you.