MVCfans.com Arch Madness seeding probabilities

[PantherSigEp]

Looks like if all the home teams win on Saturday there will be a four way tie for 3rd place. It will be interesting to see how those 3-6 spots pan out on Saturday.

A 4-way tie for 3rd would put the seeds at: 3-UNI, 4-ISUr, 5-SIU, 6-MSU

UNI would have 4 wins vs the group, ISUr and SIU 3 each with ISUr having the better NC SOS, and MSU would have 2.

Not a big fan of possibly playing MSU over ISU/SIU. They've impressed me more than the latter two have despite getting swept by the Panthers this season. Both games were exciting games that went down to the very end. Plus, beating a team 3 times in a season is a pretty tall task when they're already so close.

[Cdizzle]

Looks like if all the home teams win on Saturday there will be a four way tie for 3rd place. It will be interesting to see how those 3-6 spots pan out on Saturday.

A 4-way tie for 3rd would put the seeds at: 3-UNI, 4-ISUr, 5-SIU, 6-MSU

UNI would have 4 wins vs the group, ISUr and SIU 3 each with ISUr having the better NC SOS, and MSU would have 2.

Plus, beating a team 3 times in a season is a pretty tall task when they're already so close.

This gets thrown around a lot. I pulled the data for this over a 3 year period, and it turned out the winner of the 1st two won something like 73% of the time. I'll have to dig up the actual numbers. Sometimes a team is just better.

[Heinro]

Can't wait to see the last probabilities. I'm really hoping MSU finishes as a 4/5. A road loss to us, a win, and a neutral loss to us would create 3 more top 100 wins for WSU.

[PantherSigEp]

A 4-way tie for 3rd would put the seeds at: 3-UNI, 4-ISUr, 5-SIU, 6-MSU

UNI would have 4 wins vs the group, ISUr and SIU 3 each with ISUr having the better NC SOS, and MSU would have 2.

Plus, beating a team 3 times in a season is a pretty tall task when they're already so close.

This gets thrown around a lot. I pulled the data for this over a 3 year period, and it turned out the winner of the 1st two won something like 73% of the time. I'll have to dig up the actual numbers. Sometimes a team is just better.

Any idea on what it is when the teams are noticeably evenly matched. That % doesn't surprise me when we lump every one into the equation. I believe UNI has had recent season sweeps of teams like ISUr, SIU and maybe Bradley and has then struggled in the 3rd matchup in the Lou.

[MVCfans]

Can't wait to see the last probabilities. I'm really hoping MSU finishes as a 4/5. A road loss to us, a win, and a neutral loss to us would create 3 more top 100 wins for WSU.

All credit to Hacksaw:
link: The MVC Report -Final Arch Madness seeding scenarios

[Cdizzle]

Plus, beating a team 3 times in a season is a pretty tall task when they're already so close.

This gets thrown around a lot. I pulled the data for this over a 3 year period, and it turned out the winner of the 1st two won something like 73% of the time. I'll have to dig up the actual numbers. Sometimes a team is just better.

Any idea on what it is when the teams are noticeably evenly matched. That % doesn't surprise me when we lump every one into the equation. I believe UNI has had recent season sweeps of teams like ISUr, SIU and maybe Bradley and has then struggled in the 3rd matchup in the Lou.

I don't have a breakdown. I understand what you're getting at, but it gets difficult to define things like "evenly matched" especially in a scenario where the two teams have already played twice, with one team winning both times. This inherently skews every matchup towards not evenly matched.

[MSUDuo]

Speaking for MSU, we've been swept 7 times this century. Some expected (WSU last year) and some not (UE two years ago)

With that said, I'd rather be in the 3/6 even if we play UNI. But I think we'll be playing ISUr

[pafan]

Some expected (WSU last year) and some not (UE two years ago)

Even more unlikely: all three of them were overtime games.

[ptownbraves]

Well with Bradley locked in at #7 and Loyola locked in at #10, the Thursday night Bradley vs. Drake tradition has come to an end. How sad...

[PantherSigEp]

Well with Bradley locked in at #7 and Loyola locked in at #10, the Thursday night Bradley vs. Drake tradition has come to an end. How sad...

There's always next year fella