2013-2014 Bracketology thread

[PantherSigEp]

5 SEC teams? Wow, I hope you are wrong. That'd be depressing.

[Wufan]

5 SEC teams? Wow, I hope you are wrong. That'd be depressing.

Tennessee and Arkansas have a lot of quality losses, and that can't be ignored.

[rlh04d]

But if you want to be honest with yourself and the board you should have included Wisconsin in your analysis instead of using the AP Top 10. KU by no means has a lock on a top 5 spot on the S-Curve on Selection Sunday as you imply.

I can include any team you want. AP Top 10 was just easier than picking and choosing teams that I thought could be in there.

We can bicker about it, but Selection Sunday is in two weeks, and Kansas will be a one seed or the top two seed, so oh well. You'll be angry when you see it, but it won't change it being true.

Seems like you just made the exact type of post that frequently earns your condescending scorn.

You really dislike being disagreed with, don't you?

KU will be a 1 seed when the seeds are announced. I'm not championing their right to it, I'm acknowledging what is inevitable because we already know the criteria the committee will use.

[Wufan]

You really dislike being disagreed with, don't you?

KU will be a 1 seed when the seeds are announced. I'm not championing their right to it, I'm acknowledging what is inevitable because we already know the criteria the committee will use.

What I know about KU is that you need to be a top 50 type team to beat them. Odds are about 40% for a win. On a neutral or road venue, your odds increase (if you are a top 50 team) to about 60%. There is a LOT of data to support this. % of top 50 teams in the dance after the second round? About 90%. Chances of KU advancing past the sweet 16? About 25%. That's not bad, but it ain't grand either.

If KU wins out, they will likely be a 1 seed. A loss probably drops them to a 2 seed.

[rlh04d]

Partial bracket:
MIDWEST
@St Louis
1) Wichita St (30-0) vs. 16) FGCU (18-11)/Utah Valley (16-10)
8) Kentucky (21-8) vs. 9) St Joseph's (21-7)
@San Antonio
4) Iowa St (22-6) vs. 13) Iona (20-9)
5) Louisville (24-5) vs. 12) Louisiana Tech (23-6)
@Raleigh
3) Virginia (25-5) vs. 14) Boston (22-9)
6) UConn (23-6) vs. 11) Baylor(17-10)/California (18-11)
@Buffalo
2) Villanova (26-3) vs. 15) Vermont (19-9)
7) Ohio St (22-8) vs. 10) Stanford (18-10)

I don't mind having Virginia in the bracket ... I figure they're going to be there. I'd rather avoid Louisville as a 5 seed. And Kentucky is a tough 8 seed based on talent level alone, although they're not a very good team.

I'd rather not have LRMC's #2 team Louisville as a 5 seed in our bracket.

[rlh04d]

You really dislike being disagreed with, don't you?

KU will be a 1 seed when the seeds are announced. I'm not championing their right to it, I'm acknowledging what is inevitable because we already know the criteria the committee will use.

What I know about KU is that you need to be a top 50 type team to beat them. Odds are about 40% for a win. On a neutral or road venue, your odds increase (if you are a top 50 team) to about 60%. There is a LOT of data to support this. % of top 50 teams in the dance after the second round? About 90%. Chances of KU advancing past the sweet 16? About 25%. That's not bad, but it ain't grand either.

If KU wins out, they will likely be a 1 seed. A loss probably drops them to a 2 seed.

And I agree with all of that. I don't think KU is a great team, and a long, long way from unbeatable.

I do think they'll be a one seed, though. At least if they win out for the regular season. If they lose in the conference tourney ... it depends on how teams like Wisconsin, Duke, and Syracuse do.

I wouldn't be shocked if they lose @WVU.

[Play Angry]

You really dislike being disagreed with, don't you?

lol

You picked an argument, called me out for not defending my point, then when I had the nerve to do so, responded with:

We can bicker about it, but Selection Sunday is in two weeks, and Kansas will be a one seed or the top two seed, so oh well. You'll be angry when you see it, but it won't change it being true.

Translation: "I don't wanna talk about this anymore, I'm right, so there."

Only you messed that part up too. Why on earth would I be angry about KU being the top 2 seed? That falls in line perfectly with what I've been saying- that they don't deserve a 1 seed. I would, of course, be perfectly happy with that.



Here's the thing- you love trying to correct people, and you do it with the vigor of a coke fiend once college football season ends here and on shockernet. Sometimes the arguments are interesting and you make some good points. Other times you pick tiny trivialities to disagree with just for argument's sake, then post walls of text in support. All of that is fine. It's your thing, and most message boards have one of those.

Just don't be the "argument" guy who gets mad and can't take it when someone responds in kind. It's not a good look.

[rlh04d]

You really dislike being disagreed with, don't you?

lol

You picked an argument, called me out for not defending my point, then when I had the nerve to do so, responded with:

Translation: "I don't wanna talk about this anymore, I'm right, so there."

Only you messed that part up too. Why on earth would I be angry about KU being the top 2 seed? That falls in line perfectly with what I've been saying- that they don't deserve a 1 seed. I would, of course, be perfectly happy with that.



Here's the thing- you love trying to correct people, and you do it with the vigor of a coke fiend once college football season ends here and on shockernet. Sometimes the arguments are interesting and you make some good points. Other times you pick tiny trivialities to disagree with just for argument's sake, then post walls of text in support. All of that is fine. It's your thing, and most message boards have one of those.

Just don't be the "argument" guy who gets mad and can't take it when someone responds in kind. It's not a good look.

When exactly do you think I got mad? Was it when I posted about your "condescending scorn," "vigor of a coke fiend," complained about your "walls of text," called you dishonest, or called you "one of those" ?

Please pick out one point in any of my posts there that could be construed as being mad at you. You've taken five shots at me in your last two posts. I've taken none at you.

I'm not arguing with you. Arguing requires an emotional reaction to the other person ... you are arguing with me. I absolutely enjoy debate, but I generally do it happily and refrain from taking petty pot shots until others do so first. Such as you've done here. Repeatedly.

I stopped "arguing" with you because I saw it was going to become something more than a friendly debate with you very fast, which is how I intended it. Your further meltdown is showing that I was right to disengage.

[MSUDuo]

5 SEC teams? Wow, I hope you are wrong. That'd be depressing.

Someone has to get in.

All bubble teams will have a bunch of losses, even bad ones.

Arkansas swept Kentucky, beat SMU, beat Minnesota.
Tennessee beat Virginia and Xavier.

Not world beaters but the UVA and UK games carry some weight

[pafan]

It also helps that Wichita State has been moving up the other statistical rankings. They are up to #6 in KenPom, #1 in Nolan's Power Index, #1 in Sagarin's Elo Ratings, and of course #2 in the polls.

Sagarin ELO is based heavily on winning. i.e. the team with the most wins will be #1, and that is Wichita. I doubt anyone seriously looks at ELO as a guage for comparing two teams, its at least as bad and probably worse than RPI.