WSU Odd of UNDEFEATED in SEASON 3

by **Snaggletooth** » March 22nd, 2014, 10:17 am

Season 1: 31-0
Season 2: 3-0
Season 3: 1-0 (6 game season)

Probability for Season 3: 0.9%

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by **rlh04d** » March 22nd, 2014, 11:39 am

Snaggletooth wrote:Probability for Season 3: 0.9%

Not sure where you're getting that number from. Even with 64 teams our probability was never close to that low.

We were about 5% at the start. We're at 6% now in the Round of 32, according to Nate Silver.

by **Snaggletooth** » March 22nd, 2014, 5:40 pm

rlh04d wrote:
Snaggletooth wrote:Probability for Season 3: 0.9%

Not sure where you're getting that number from. Even with 64 teams our probability was never close to that low.

We were about 5% at the start. We're at 6% now in the Round of 32, according to Nate Silver.

All depends on your methodology you use. The prediction comes from RPI forecast who uses the Sagrin predictor.

Nate Silver is mish-mash of model (uses sagrin, pomeroy, moores, sokol and ESPN BPI index) and human factors (NCAA s-curve and PRESEASON AP/coaches poll) for making his predictions. The models are weighted 72% and the human factors are weighted 28%. He then adjusts them for suspensions/injuries.

by **rlh04d** » March 22nd, 2014, 6:21 pm

Snaggletooth wrote:
rlh04d wrote:
Snaggletooth wrote:Probability for Season 3: 0.9%

Not sure where you're getting that number from. Even with 64 teams our probability was never close to that low.

We were about 5% at the start. We're at 6% now in the Round of 32, according to Nate Silver.

All depends on your methodology you use. The prediction comes from RPI forecast who uses the Sagrin predictor.

Nate Silver is mish-mash of model (uses sagrin, pomeroy, moores, sokol and ESPN BPI index) and human factors (NCAA s-curve and PRESEASON AP/coaches poll) for making his predictions. The models are weighted 72% and the human factors are weighted 28%. He then adjusts them for suspensions/injuries.

True. Sagarin Predictor giving us that % makes sense ... Sagarin is about the only predictor I've seen that dislikes WSU.

Three of the teams they had over us didn't make it out of the first round. I'll stick with the numbers that don't have us behind several round of 64 losers

by **ACECARD** » March 23rd, 2014, 3:34 pm

ZERO%

by **PowderBlue** » March 23rd, 2014, 3:35 pm

ACECARD wrote:ZERO%

Aw, you edited it before I could nail the 'insult fail'.

it was definitely )% to start.

by **PowderBlue** » March 23rd, 2014, 3:36 pm

ACECARD wrote:ZERO%

Also, wasn't that the Aces chance of making the NCAA Tournament by December 1st?

by **ACECARD** » March 23rd, 2014, 6:28 pm

PowderBlue wrote:
ACECARD wrote:ZERO%

Also, wasn't that the Aces chance of making the NCAA Tournament by December 1st?

What do the Aces have to do with with the Shocks going undefeated in season 3? :huh: