Trending up. Trending down.

[Drakey]

Don't think Giacoletti is going anywhere unless he gets fired, and I don't see that happening in the next five years as long as thee is improvement.

[glm38]

.

Over five years is a point that is pretty dependent on the overall health of the program and coaching decisions.

Bradley - Up. Good God, they have to go up, right? Bradley has too many resources to continue to be down.
Drake - Up and down. Drake will improve and Giacoletti will bounce.
Evansville - Steady. Evansville has strong players for the next few years, but on a five-year timeframe, Evansville isn't going anywhere.
Illinois State - Up. Muller's a good coach. Good reason to assume he's dedicated to IlSU. Given some consistency on the roster, they're trending up.
Indiana State - Down. No commitment financially. No long-term success.
Loyola - Steady. They can't really trend down. I don't think their coach is good enough long-term.
Missouri State - Up and down. Definite upward trajectory for the next two-to-three years, but Lusk will bolt.
Northern Iowa - Steady. Second highest floor of any team in the conference, relatively high ceiling every few years, and no reason to think Jacobson plans on leaving.
SIU - Up. Hinson is a good coach, but not so good that he'll leave (although, personally, my dream situation is that he struggles just enough and SIU fires him, and WSU hires him as an assistant HC).
Wichita State - Down. I think Marshall will leave after FVV graduates (not saying Baker, as I think Baker might go pro as a JR). WSU will hire a good replacement, but a Golden Age doesn't last forever. Hope I'm wrong, but I'm happy just enjoying the next two years for now.

Up: 3.
Steady: 3.
Up enough to lose their coach and then down: 2.
Down: 2

Seems fair to me.

Wow. Pretty bold predictions. I hope you are wrong about Lusk and Marshall leaving. I know I would hate to start over when we seem to be building something worthwhile. Lusk had proven he can recruit but he still has a lot to prove in other areas of his profession.

It will be interesting to see what Marshall does. In so many ways he has it made at WSU. I'd like to think it's possible for a Valley school to keep an elite coach long term but maybe that's being naive. At some point a destination job like KY or NC will open up. Then we'll see.

[rlh04d]

Wow. Pretty bold predictions. I hope you are wrong about Lusk and Marshall leaving. I know I would hate to start over when we seem to be building something worthwhile. Lusk had proven he can recruit but he still has a lot to prove in other areas of his profession.

It will be interesting to see what Marshall does. In so many ways he has it made at WSU. I'd like to think it's possible for a Valley school to keep an elite coach long term but maybe that's being naive. At some point a destination job like KY or NC will open up. Then we'll see.

Trust me, I'm not happy about my predictions

Seriously, though, how many coaches have stayed at MVC teams for longer than five years? Most people here are expecting every current coach to still be here in five years. Or all but Marshall.

The average lifespan of an MVC coach seems to be under five years to me. Eight years on the high end. Marshall and Jacobson are already on the high end of coaches currently, and in another five years, every other MVC coach would be at the high end as well. So either we're about to go through a golden age of coaching the likes of which the MVC has never seen before ... or we're more likely not. We'll just keep doing what the MVC has done for a while, which is not having 9 coaches with 7+ years in the league.

Missouri State is currently paying Paul Lusk a base salary of $240k a year. WSU pays assistant coaches that much. Lusk will get MoSt to the NCAA tournament and then he'll run off for a better paying job. $240k isn't going to keep him from anyone, which means the only hope MoSt has of keeping him is him not being in demand. Which means you need to not win. And then you'll fire him. So what chance is there that Lusk will still be there in five years? MoSt fans won't be happy with the level of success required to keep him, and won't be able to keep him with the level of success they want.

The same goes for pretty much every non-Marshall coach in the conference. I think Bradley can keep Ford given decent success, because they're already paying him well and can pay him more if the fans respond to success.

Lusk is the one guy I think is absolutely out of here, because he's one of the few guys that I think will be able to win significantly in the next five years. I'm expecting MoSt to have a Sweet 16 in the next five years, and if Lusk goes to the Sweet 16, he gone. Winning coaches that make $250k leave.

[Cdizzle]

There is a sealed envelope on the AD's desk with enough money in it to keep Lusk for eternity.

[agrinut]

Wow. Pretty bold predictions. I hope you are wrong about Lusk and Marshall leaving. I know I would hate to start over when we seem to be building something worthwhile. Lusk had proven he can recruit but he still has a lot to prove in other areas of his profession.

It will be interesting to see what Marshall does. In so many ways he has it made at WSU. I'd like to think it's possible for a Valley school to keep an elite coach long term but maybe that's being naive. At some point a destination job like KY or NC will open up. Then we'll see.

Trust me, I'm not happy about my predictions

Seriously, though, how many coaches have stayed at MVC teams for longer than five years? Most people here are expecting every current coach to still be here in five years. Or all but Marshall.

The average lifespan of an MVC coach seems to be under five years to me. Eight years on the high end. Marshall and Jacobson are already on the high end of coaches currently, and in another five years, every other MVC coach would be at the high end as well. So either we're about to go through a golden age of coaching the likes of which the MVC has never seen before ... or we're more likely not. We'll just keep doing what the MVC has done for a while, which is not having 9 coaches with 7+ years in the league.

Missouri State is currently paying Paul Lusk a base salary of $240k a year. WSU pays assistant coaches that much. Lusk will get MoSt to the NCAA tournament and then he'll run off for a better paying job. $240k isn't going to keep him from anyone, which means the only hope MoSt has of keeping him is him not being in demand. Which means you need to not win. And then you'll fire him. So what chance is there that Lusk will still be there in five years? MoSt fans won't be happy with the level of success required to keep him, and won't be able to keep him with the level of success they want.

The same goes for pretty much every non-Marshall coach in the conference. I think Bradley can keep Ford given decent success, because they're already paying him well and can pay him more if the fans respond to success.

Lusk is the one guy I think is absolutely out of here, because he's one of the few guys that I think will be able to win significantly in the next five years. I'm expecting MoSt to have a Sweet 16 in the next five years, and if Lusk goes to the Sweet 16, he gone. Winning coaches that make $250k leave.

Lusk makes 440k and if he goes to a sweet16 I'm sure there will be efforts to keep him.

[uniftw]

Wow. Pretty bold predictions. I hope you are wrong about Lusk and Marshall leaving. I know I would hate to start over when we seem to be building something worthwhile. Lusk had proven he can recruit but he still has a lot to prove in other areas of his profession.

It will be interesting to see what Marshall does. In so many ways he has it made at WSU. I'd like to think it's possible for a Valley school to keep an elite coach long term but maybe that's being naive. At some point a destination job like KY or NC will open up. Then we'll see.

Trust me, I'm not happy about my predictions

Seriously, though, how many coaches have stayed at MVC teams for longer than five years? Most people here are expecting every current coach to still be here in five years. Or all but Marshall.

The average lifespan of an MVC coach seems to be under five years to me. Eight years on the high end. Marshall and Jacobson are already on the high end of coaches currently, and in another five years, every other MVC coach would be at the high end as well. So either we're about to go through a golden age of coaching the likes of which the MVC has never seen before ... or we're more likely not. We'll just keep doing what the MVC has done for a while, which is not having 9 coaches with 7+ years in the league.

Missouri State is currently paying Paul Lusk a base salary of $240k a year. WSU pays assistant coaches that much. Lusk will get MoSt to the NCAA tournament and then he'll run off for a better paying job. $240k isn't going to keep him from anyone, which means the only hope MoSt has of keeping him is him not being in demand. Which means you need to not win. And then you'll fire him. So what chance is there that Lusk will still be there in five years? MoSt fans won't be happy with the level of success required to keep him, and won't be able to keep him with the level of success they want.

The same goes for pretty much every non-Marshall coach in the conference. I think Bradley can keep Ford given decent success, because they're already paying him well and can pay him more if the fans respond to success.

Lusk is the one guy I think is absolutely out of here, because he's one of the few guys that I think will be able to win significantly in the next five years. I'm expecting MoSt to have a Sweet 16 in the next five years, and if Lusk goes to the Sweet 16, he gone. Winning coaches that make $250k leave.

Lusk makes 440k and if he goes to a sweet16 I'm sure there will be efforts to keep him.

With the, very public, push MSU has made to go FBS (and will continue to make) where is that funding going to come from?

The writing is already on the wall at MSU that they are willing to cut off the nose to spite the face.

[agrinut]

Trust me, I'm not happy about my predictions

Seriously, though, how many coaches have stayed at MVC teams for longer than five years? Most people here are expecting every current coach to still be here in five years. Or all but Marshall.

The average lifespan of an MVC coach seems to be under five years to me. Eight years on the high end. Marshall and Jacobson are already on the high end of coaches currently, and in another five years, every other MVC coach would be at the high end as well. So either we're about to go through a golden age of coaching the likes of which the MVC has never seen before ... or we're more likely not. We'll just keep doing what the MVC has done for a while, which is not having 9 coaches with 7+ years in the league.

Missouri State is currently paying Paul Lusk a base salary of $240k a year. WSU pays assistant coaches that much. Lusk will get MoSt to the NCAA tournament and then he'll run off for a better paying job. $240k isn't going to keep him from anyone, which means the only hope MoSt has of keeping him is him not being in demand. Which means you need to not win. And then you'll fire him. So what chance is there that Lusk will still be there in five years? MoSt fans won't be happy with the level of success required to keep him, and won't be able to keep him with the level of success they want.

The same goes for pretty much every non-Marshall coach in the conference. I think Bradley can keep Ford given decent success, because they're already paying him well and can pay him more if the fans respond to success.

Lusk is the one guy I think is absolutely out of here, because he's one of the few guys that I think will be able to win significantly in the next five years. I'm expecting MoSt to have a Sweet 16 in the next five years, and if Lusk goes to the Sweet 16, he gone. Winning coaches that make $250k leave.

Lusk makes 440k and if he goes to a sweet16 I'm sure there will be efforts to keep him.

With the, very public, push MSU has made to go FBS (and will continue to make) where is that funding going to come from?

The writing is already on the wall at MSU that they are willing to cut off the nose to spite the face.

MSU has the lowest amount of institutional monies used for athletics, if the basketball program is actively contributing to the university that can change. Look at what UNI recieved as far as national attention and free advertising from thier sweet16 run. MSU is spending 50+ million this summer on facility upgrades and none of that is coming from the institution. There is money to be had if warranted. My hope is that if in fact lusk does leave the starting salary for the next coach will be where lusk is now.

[uniftw]

Spending 50 million to put lipstick on the pig that is MSU football to make it look pretty for any potential FBS suitors.

Anything else that comes from that is just collateral positives for the programs.

[MoValley John]

Once again, Bears fans are overstating how much they are willing to pay coaches. Lusk just had his contract renegotiated for just over $300,000. MSU fans pull numbers out of their butts that they think sound good, post them and hope the world believes them. In reality, the only people that believe them anymore are their own fans.

http://www.news-leader.com/story/sports/college/msu/2014/04/04/msu-extends-contracts-lusk-harper/7322027/

[MoValley John]

Lusk makes 440k and if he goes to a sweet16 I'm sure there will be efforts to keep him.

Incorrect. Lusk makes $305,333.