Wednesday night games

[PocketAces]

Here are things I think are important to look at for Wednesday's night games.

Bradley @ Indiana State

Bradley has had a tough time scoring in the preseason and is the lowest scoring team in the Valley thus far, and they also have the lowest FG%. Indiana State however has been no better than the middle of the pack defensively. The Braves are also a -4 on the rebounding margin, while the Sycs are a +4. Look for second chance points to be key. Bradley's defense (1st in steals per game) needs to take advantage of Indiana State's problems with turnovers as the Sycs are 8th in turnover margin thus far. PREDICTION: Indiana State 67-61


Southern Illinois @ Drake

The Salukis have played good defense (2nd in FG% defense) and rebounded well (2nd in rebounding margin and 1st in defensive rebounds per game). This plays into Drake's weakness during the preseason (9th in FG% offense and 10th in rebound margin). Two things working for Drake are their #1 ranking in steals per game, while SIU is 10th in turnover margin, and Drake being second in the league's preseason in 3pt FG per game, while the Salukis are 10th in the same catagory. PREDICTION: Southern Illinois 59-56


Creighton @ Illinois State


The preseason stats for these two teams are very similar and no real advantages stick out. The one area that Creighton is weak in (10th in 3pt FG% defense) doesn't look like something Illinois State can expose as they are 9th in 3pt FG%. A key may be Creighton's abaility to rebound defensively as the Redbirds are first in offensive rebounds per game. If the Bluejays are up near the end of the game they are conference leaders in FT%.
PREDICTION: Creighton 72-70


Missouri State @ Northern Iowa


The battle of wills here. Missouri State leads the conference preseason ranks in FG% and they are 2nd in PPG offense. Meanwhile, Northern Iowa is 1st in both PPG defense and FG% defense. A great match-up to start conference play. Not to ignored is that the Bears can also play some defense (3rd in PPG defense) while Northern is only 9th in PPG offense. Northern Iowa is coming off a couple of impressive wins and is at home. That may be the difference. PREDICTION: Northern Iowa 63-61


Evansville @ Wichita State


The top two 3pt shooting teams square off here. These are also the top two teams in assists per game so they play well together. The difference here is the Aces defense against the Shockers offense. While Wichita is first in scoring offense and 2nd in FG%, Evansville is 9th in scoring defense and 10th in FG% defense. Look for Wichita to control the glass as well (1st in rebounding margin while Evansville is 8th in the same catagory). The extra chances wear down Evansville. PREDICTION: Wichita State 78-62

[WuDrWu]

Very solid analysis.

[cu8493]

IMO, bluebirds v. redbirds will be in the low 60s, and could be in the 50s. Neither team shoots the trey worth a darn, both coming in right aroun 30%. Both are rebounding fairly well, which probably means limited offensive boards. CU averages about 65 points and gives up about 63, while Ill. St. averages about 64 points and gives up about 60 - both against relatively mundane nonconference schedules. Advantage goes to Ill St, IMO on the basis of home court, and the tendancy of CU to settle for standing around the perimeter and tossing up threes at about a 30% clip - against good defenses. I'd say Ill St. 65-59.

[valleyclimber]

Got all the home teams protecting home court (as that is ESSENTIAL if teams want to finish high in the MVC).

Sooooo....

Trees > Braves
Shocks > Aces
Cats > Bears
Birds > Jays
Bulldogs > Salukis

There should be some absolute WARS in the MVC this season.
Makes for some great games for us Valley fans....ooooo yeah!!

Let the MVC bloodbath begin.....

[PocketAces]

Opening lines: Home team in CAPS

INDIANA STATE (-3) vs. Bradley
WICHITA STATE (-13) vs. Evansville
DRAKE (Pk) vs. Southern Illinois
NORTHERN IOWA (-1) vs. Missouri State
Creighton (-1) @ ILLINOIS STATE

[WuDrWu]

Nothing looks really good there except maybe the Trees at home. Playing better, and Bradley is so thin, winning on the road is tough enough in the Valley.

[LJay]

That CU @ IllSt line looks insane. You could have loaded up in Vegas this year betting against the Jays as they are something like 3-9 against the spread so far.

[DoubleJayAlum]

I'm showing Illinois St -1.....

I think PocketAces put the (-1) behind the wrong team.

[cubsfan62395]

I'm showing Creighton -1

[unipanther99]

I think we will find out a lot about each MVC team after tonight. I'll be especially interested in the Bradley/Indiana State match-up. The winner has a leg up on trying to be a top half team this year.