What's the next realignment domino to fall?

[Cdizzle]

I remember when I used to go to football games.

I was in high school. It cost me $7, with student discount.

I am not an economist, but I do often find truth in the saying "you get what you pay for."

Draw your own conclusions.

[glm38]

I had never heard of Arkansas State until the discussion of MSU to the SunBelt came up. Another school I didn't know existed until the current discussion is North Dakota. I suppose I probably knew there was a North Dakota, but I never heard of them.

Right now may be the worst time possible for any FB decisions other than dropping FB. The P5 have the ability to make any other college FB irrelevant, other than to local fans. If a school has enough local fans to support a program in that situation, then that school can continue supporting a FB program.

That school is likely to become irrelevant in all sports because of the financial and human resources that have to be dedicated to an irrelevant FB program.

I agree with a lot of what you say. It all depends on what your definition of "irrelevant" is. If being relevant means competing for national titles at the highest level then no both Sunbelt and FCS programs aren't relevant. But if they are supported by the student body and local fans they are very relevant. MSU'S game on Sat was so much fun - try telling those 18000 plus fans that our game on Sat was irrelevant! Events like that unify and energize a community and campus.

PS: at this point we are maxed out at 18000 plus fans. Sat was very close to a sellout. Standing room only was all that was left I believe. So we won't be getting 25000 anytime soon.

[Aargh]

Renovated stadium, big promo (including low-dollar tickets), pack the place, win the game.

That's an outstanding formula for building a following. That puts MSU on a good basis for building their program. Stay on that path for a couple of years, including "win the game", and then there is a reason to consider moving to the FBS division. Right now, that discussion seems premature.

There are schools that operate "get by" type programs with attendance that will fit into an 18K stadium. The step up to FBS is huge. It isn't just the scholarships. If you want to compete for the better recruits, everything costs more. Training and conditioning facilities, practice facilities, locker rooms, dorms. The cost of everything goes through the roof. Coaching salaries skyrocket. Without significant TV revenues, you need in the range of 40K - 50K butts in seats averaging around $40 spent per person. That's a pricey stadium, and a huge percentage of the population of your part of the world.

If you are content to be a bottom-dweller in the top division, you can do that on the cheap. I've never heard fans chanting "We're Number (one hundred and) One". Why strive for mediocrity?

My definition of "relevant" is all about TV revenues. You've simply got to have them if you have any intention of competing with the P5 guys.

[Sir Sci]

As a Missouri State fan who does not necessarily want the school to move to the Sun Belt for many reasons, I'd just like to say that the purpose of this thread is to discuss potential movement and what will come first.

In reality, I think the Valley stays the same for a decent number of years. However, IF something is going to change, it will be either UNI, MO State, or Ill. St. moving up. While the Shocker fans here may be right that football is just a drain on other sports, the fact remains that it is what drives most conferences.

Without a football team, the only conferences even available to WSU to move to are the A-10 and the Big East. I find the A-10 incredibly unlikely simply because of geography, especially if SLU moves to the Big East someday. Quite simply, a team in Kansas isn't going to be in the Atlantic 10. The Big East is entirely private, and only one is not a Catholic school. Ya, WSU isn't going to fit.

UNI, in my opinion, would be the most logical team to move to the FBS because of past performance. I also think UNI would be a logical fit with the MAC simply because of geography.

In terms of Missouri State, we definitely would fit well with the Sun Belt simply because of geography, and the similarity in type and size with those institutions. I do have some problems with that not only because of the downgrade in basketball quality, though, but also because their soccer programs are worthless. I don't even mean they're bad - they're in a position where I don't really understand why they even offer soccer.

I think the better fit for Missouri State would also be the MAC because we're already an affiliate member, but they're not even looking to expand so it's pointless to hope for that.

However, I think that if something does happen, Missouri State moving is the most likely of the options given.

[CaseyGarrisonforPrez]

Coming from somebody who is a huge college football fan, Arkansas State is irrelevant to anyone that is not a fan of the team or who lives near there. I couldnt tell you one important game they or anyone in the sunbelt ever played. MVC basketball is more relevant and always has been.

That being said I am one of the people who believes that the valley would be better off with no football. D1-AA football is decent quality, but doesn't get the attention or money worth the funds it takes to run it. Our schools would be better off pouring that money into basketball.

I mean no offence, but I question how you can be a "huge college football fan" and yet not know more about the SBC. The Sun Belt has a primetime game each Tuesday night on the ESPN family of networks in October and November and I rarely miss a game. Arkansas State, ULM, and Louisiana Lafayette are fixtures. It isn't a Power Five league but it is very good football and played in pretty cool environments too.

I'd have no way of really knowing this but I would definitely suspect that the casual sports fan knows more about Sun Belt football than Valley basketball. Most people know about Larry Bird and that Wichita State has a good program but that is probably the extent of it.

[CaseyGarrisonforPrez]

Without a football team, the only conferences even available to WSU to move to are the A-10 and the Big East. I find the A-10 incredibly unlikely simply because of geography, especially if SLU moves to the Big East someday. Quite simply, a team in Kansas isn't going to be in the Atlantic 10. The Big East is entirely private, and only one is not a Catholic school. Ya, WSU isn't going to fit.

There is some thought that the Mountain West is a possibility. I think there is a slivver of hope in that to be honest. Gonzaga could be in play too. As much as I dislike the Shocks I think they would be a better fit in the MWC. And Mark Few makes Gregg seem likeable in comparison if you can believe it. And less of a self promoter.

Your points on MSU are spot on as always my friend. I like soccer but it won't be the deciding factor in SBC vs. MAC of course. The SBC is more of a gateway to CUSA which in turn is a gateway to the AAC in time. That is my hope. I would see the MAC as a better home if we are buying a house in our new conference as opposed to simply renting however.

[Wufan]

Coming from somebody who is a huge college football fan, Arkansas State is irrelevant to anyone that is not a fan of the team or who lives near there. I couldnt tell you one important game they or anyone in the sunbelt ever played. MVC basketball is more relevant and always has been.

That being said I am one of the people who believes that the valley would be better off with no football. D1-AA football is decent quality, but doesn't get the attention or money worth the funds it takes to run it. Our schools would be better off pouring that money into basketball.

I mean no offence, but I question how you can be a "huge college football fan" and yet not know more about the SBC. The Sun Belt has a primetime game each Tuesday night on the ESPN family of networks in October and November and I rarely miss a game. Arkansas State, ULM, and Louisiana Lafayette are fixtures. It isn't a Power Five league but it is very good football and played in pretty cool environments too.

I'd have no way of really knowing this but I would definitely suspect that the casual sports fan knows more about Sun Belt football than Valley basketball. Most people know about Larry Bird and that Wichita State has a good program but that is probably the extent of it.

Tuesday night football...I didn't know it existed.

I think most "huge fans" follow a conference or two and the top 25. Being a sunbelt fan is a niche following and not mainstream at all.

[Sir Sci]

Without a football team, the only conferences even available to WSU to move to are the A-10 and the Big East. I find the A-10 incredibly unlikely simply because of geography, especially if SLU moves to the Big East someday. Quite simply, a team in Kansas isn't going to be in the Atlantic 10. The Big East is entirely private, and only one is not a Catholic school. Ya, WSU isn't going to fit.

There is some thought that the Mountain West is a possibility. I think there is a slivver of hope in that to be honest. Gonzaga could be in play too. As much as I dislike the Shocks I think they would be a better fit in the MWC. And Mark Few makes Gregg seem likeable in comparison if you can believe it. And less of a self promoter.

Your points on MSU are spot on as always my friend. I like soccer but it won't be the deciding factor in SBC vs. MAC of course. The SBC is more of a gateway to CUSA which in turn is a gateway to the AAC in time. That is my hope. I would see the MAC as a better home if we are buying a house in our new conference as opposed to simply renting however.

There may be a small sliver of hope if the MW is considering having a team offset Hawaii - one school just football, one school everything but football. But if the Mountain West wants to just straight up expand, it will be adding a school with football.

[MoValley John]

quote="CaseyGarrisonforPrez"] I mean no offence, but I question how you can be a "huge college football fan" and yet not know more about the SBC. The Sun Belt has a primetime game each Tuesday night on the ESPN family of networks in October and November and I rarely miss a game. [/quote]

Crap, I'm drawn in by another Missouri State fan.... Again. And it's Casey... Again.

I know about the Sun Belt. I know it's horrible. Tuesday night football is just that, Tuesday night football. It is the night of the week that even the most die hard football fans take off. It is when you come home from work and spend time with 5 he wife and kids. It's the night that even fantasy football geeks do something different. And it is the night that the irrelevant leagues play a game because there is literally no other sports taking place. So the Sun Belt gets their broadcast. I don't watch, I bet few others do either. Now a little bit about the vaunted Sun Belt.

In football, the Sun Belt is the lowest FBS league with regards to RPI. Year in and year out, as FBS leagues go, the Sun Belt is last. There are years when the MVFC and a few other FCS leagues pass up the Sun Belt. The Sun Belt doesn't buy games from any FBS programs and doesn't buy games from most FCS programs. They are that low. Here are the final 2013 RPI's by league- according to RealTimeRpi.com:
Southeastern  
Pacific-12
Big 12
Atlantic Coast
Independents
Big Ten
American Athletic   
Mountain West 
Conference USA 
Mid-American 
Sun Belt
fcs  
Missouri Valley
Colonial
Big South
Southland
Big Sky
Independents
Ohio Valley
Southern
Patriot League
Northeast
Mid-Eastern Athletic 
Southwestern Athletic
Pioneer League 
Ivy League

So there you have it, Casey, in 2013, the Big South finished one lousy spot ahead of the MVFC in football. The relevance of that one spot is insignificant. The financial impact on your budget and the risk for that one spot is huge. Gigantic! The financial risk and the very limited upside probably has a lot to do with Missouri State even being in the discussion for a potential spot in the Big South; more stable and successful FCS programs want no part of the Big South. Location plays a part, but there are a bunch of successful FCS programs in and near the Big South's footprint that want nothing to do with it.

So, now that we have established that the Big South is the worst FBS league, let's see how they do in basketball. I will once again use RealtimeRpi.com:
Year. MVC RPI--------SB RPI
2013. 11--------- 19
2012. 9-------- 15
2011. 8-------------- 19
2010. 12------------ 22
2009. 9-------------- 21
2008. 9----------- 25
2007. 8------------ 27
2006. 6------------- 20
2005. 6---------- 19
2004. 8----------- 12
2003. 11--------' 17

There you have it in black and white, Casey, in basketball the Sun Belt sucks. There is nothing in those RPI numbers to even think that there is a hope for an upward trend. I know Missouri State fan's are pining to move up to FBS, heck, even NAIA teams would love to be FBS. The Sun Belt is a horrible, horrible option. It is almost a death sentence. Missouri State fans want this so badly, they are like the 16 year-old kid dead set on buying a car. They can't get the one they really want, so instead of saving up for a decent ride, they buy the piece of crap they can afford today. Unfortunately, the affordable option will kill them in the long run.

I've said enough. You want this so badly, I hope you get it. Honestly. You want it, you might get it and you'll get what you deserve, too.

[Aargh]

One of the pluses I've read from MSU fans on moving to the SBC is the automatic NCAA berth they'd get every year. The lower conference RPI is a plus. They're willing to lower the bar in basketball until they can finally get over it, no matter how far down they have to take it.

After all, once they're FBS and have Navy, Indiana, and Ole Miss coming into Springfield, they'll be able to fill their stadium.