TAS Bracketology 2014-15

[TheAsianSensation]

It's never too early. Some early pontification:

Obviously last year they went higher than conceivably thought. It was a bit of a perfect storm with the undefeated record and everyone falling over themselves for the final #1 seed.

This year, I'm starting them out on the 2 line. Perception does matter the higher up you are in the rankings, and perception is about as high as it can get for the program. I'm projecting 4 power conference champions on the 1 line, and a mid-major conference champion ahead of them to start. This Wichita team will be in basically the same situation as last year, resume-wise.

As far as regional sites go, Omaha is obviously preferred. But check out the other locations: one group in Columbus/Louisville/Pittsburgh, two in the northwest, and two southeastern. A lot of travel everywhere else. Also note that for Big 12 teams...it's Omaha or a lot of travel for them too. And the Big 12 will be strong this year. Wichita will be in intense competition with the Big 12 as a whole to stay close to home in Omaha. Keep tabs on that conference this year.

Further down, UNI is in my field to start. I think the SoS will work to their favor. I can't find a 3rd team I can reliably say will be part of the at-large chase right now.

As for conference perception, I see the MVC/WCC/CUSA group battling for 9th-11th in the CRPI this year. Although I wouldn't rule this group catching the Mountain West for 8th. CUSA will be better than usual this year.

Now, here's my ridiculous preseason projection:

The 1 line: Kansas, Wisconsin, Duke, Arizona
The 2 line: Kentucky, Wichita St, North Carolina, Michigan St
The 3 line: Villanova, Louisville, Texas, Virginia
The 4 line: Florida, SMU, Iowa St, San Diego St
The 5 line: Nebraska, Georgetown, Gonzaga, Iowa
The 6 line: Colorado, UCLA, Syracuse, Michigan
The 7 line: UConn, VCU, Kansas St, Oklahoma
The 8 line: Cincinnati, Dayton, Ohio St, Minnesota
The 9 line: Pittsburgh, Harvard, UNLV, Memphis
The 10 line: Louisiana Tech, Stanford, LSU, Northern Iowa
The 11 line: BYU, Utah, George Washington, Xavier
The 12 line: Akron, Green Bay, UTEP, Notre Dame, St John's
The 13 line: Illinois, Toledo, Iona, New Mexico St, Murray St
The 14 line: Stephen F Austin, UC Irvine, American, Georgia St
The 15 line: Wofford, IPFW, Coastal Carolina, North Carolina Central
The 16 line: Weber St, Towson, FGCU, Hartford, Robert Morris, Arkansas-Pine Bluff

Bubble in:
UNLV
Memphis
Stanford
LSU
Northern Iowa
BYU

Next 4 in:
Utah
George Washington
Xavier
UTEP

Last 4 in:
Notre Dame
St John's
Illinois
Toledo

Last 4 out:
Baylor
Seton Hall
New Mexico
Florida St

Next 4 out:
Oklahoma St
Arkansas
Indiana
Georgia

On the board:
North Carolina St, Tulsa, Richmond, Western Michigan, Old Dominion, Wyoming, California, St Mary's

Break it down!
Big 10 8
ACC 7
Pac 12 5
Big 12 5
Big East 4
AAC 4
A-10 3
SEC 3
MVC 2
WCC 2
MAC 2
CUSA 2
MWC 2

[Play Angry]

Thanks for doing this, always entertaining.

Kentucky on the 2 line? Bold move

[Ricardo del Rio]

I alway enjoy reading your work.

Are you retired or somethin'?

[TheAsianSensation]

Thanks for doing this, always entertaining.

Kentucky on the 2 line? Bold move

Mid-major conference champions don't become 1 seeds unless they're undefeated

Seriously, every year Kentucky is hyped up and every year the freshman require an adjustment period. How everyone in the business falls into the trap is beyond me.

I alway enjoy reading your work.

Are you retired or somethin'?

This is all second nature to me these days. I can pump out brackets in 10 minutes

[rlh04d]

Seriously, every year Kentucky is hyped up and every year the freshman require an adjustment period. How everyone in the business falls into the trap is beyond me.

Most people in the sports business aren't very knowledgeable about the sports business. It's mostly just follow-the-leader, bandwagon jumping.

Although Kentucky does have a fairly veteran team for them ...

[ShoxNAwe]

Well done. Just the thought of debating WSU as a #2 or #3 seed makes me giddy. Thank you again, Don Beggs, Jim Schaus, Mark Turgeon, Cameron Ledford, Nick Rogers, Gregg Marshall, Graham Hatch, Eric Sexton, John Bardo, and Fred VanVleet. Your ability to build, coach, lead, inspire and deliver the results Shocker fans always knew was possible is difficult to articulate.

Many others played key parts in this run from 1999 to present, but all of those guys did something extraordinary in this process.

[Wufan]

I wouldn't put Nick Rogers on my list.

[ShoxNAwe]

Fair enough. I just always bundle Nick and Cameron together as being inspirational forces on that Sweet 16 team.

[TheAsianSensation]

Seriously, every year Kentucky is hyped up and every year the freshman require an adjustment period. How everyone in the business falls into the trap is beyond me.

Jesus Christ, THIS is the year you finally get your act together early, Kentucky?

Random early musings:

- I'm kind of worrying Wichita St will have the same problem this year as last - strong SoS but everyone complaining there's no high-end win. I don't know if I have the energy to refute those arguments again.
- UNI, handling business. They're in a good spot where the VCU game has turned into a house money game as long as they don't mess it up elsewhere.

Not going to eliminate from at-large contention yet:
- UE, not bad. Green Bay would've been a tough ask, but their SoS isn't great and GB is the only at-large caliber team they play in the non-con. A critical Belmont/Murray stretch coming up - sweeping the OVC favorites isn't mandatory, but they have to get at least 1.
- I'm not out on Missouri St yet because there's still 4 road/neutral games on the non-con slate. Sweeping those really gets you on the committee's map. I'd really suggest getting @Tulsa, at the least.
- Illinois St has a nice win over ODU but they're 1-2 in toss-up games (SHU, Utah St).
- Indiana St's loss to St Louis is getting stinkier by the day, they'll need to do work rather immediately against Illinois.

The other teams are in various stages of tire fire.

Around the country:
- The SEC is a tire fire. Everyone but Kentucky and Arkansas are burning to the ground.
- There's a lurking monster brewing in the Big East. Their computer numbers could get really crazy if they keep this winning percentage up.

[PantherSigEp]

I just realized what TAS stands for. Wow.