MVC Conference RPI Rank

[Wufan]

We're getting close to the end of the OOC so this is starting to become a little more static.

Through games on Tuesday, 12/16/14 and per WarrenNolan.com:


1) Big 12 .6099
2) Big East .5831
3) SEC .5796
4) Big Ten .5717
5) ACC .5683
6) PAC 12 .5610
7) A-10 .5451
8) AAC .5227
9) MWC .5206
10) MVC .5200
11) Horizon .5175
12) WCC .5174
13) Colonial .5012
14) MAC .4936


November was bleak for the league but December has actually been quite good. It would be great if we could jump at least the MWC in the next couple weeks, and passing the AAC as well isn't much of a stretch.

Keep it rolling MVC teams!

Wow, this is better than I would've guessed. Even just pushing up to 9 would be a big boost. Showing the conference moving in the right direction would be a great thing. A killer 3 weeks and 8-9th is doable. A bad 3 weeks and hello 12th. Big stretch for the Valley. Somehow the league has set itself up to have a chance.

Problem is that we are just as close to 8th as we are to 12th.

[Aargh]

Any of the top 4-6 who lose to any of the 280+ teams will see their rpi plummet.

This is stated all the time and it is just simply not true. The RPI formula is (WP * 0.25) + (OWP * 0.50) + (OOWP * 0.25), there is nothing in there about record vs 300+ teams. A loss to Drake is exactly the same as a loss to Wichita State in terms of the RPI.

It is true that losing to one of the bottom-feeders might kill at-large chances, but it won't kill your RPI.

True, just having those teams on the schedule at all kills your RPI, whether you win or lose.

My bad. These two posts are correct. I knew what I meant, but I said it wrong. Lose to one of the bottom teams and it's your seeding, or chances for an invite that plummets. Just playing them causes rpi to plummet.

Example: Loyola dropped from 84 to 98 by blowing out #320 Abilene Christian tonight.

This is why the conference wants to encourage good schedules. Losing against good teams can result in better rpi ranking than beating up on really bad teams. Top-100 league wins really help Valley teams that might be on the bubble for one of the major tournaments.

UNI is 1-1 against the top 50 and 2-1 against the top-100 with a probable top-100 game against Iowa. That's a thin resume for NCAA consideration. There are only a few opportunities for top-100 wins in league play. Sadly, 5-5 against the top 50 looks better than 1-1 against the top 50. Losses in the top 50 are pretty much ignored. Wins in the top 50 and top 100 seem to be a major consideration. Schools in P5 conferences rack up top-50 and top-100 wins because there are a lot of those teams in their leagues.

[Aargh]

In an utterly amazing turn of events, the MVC went 0-4 today (before UNI took out Iowa) and moved up in conference rpi from 11 to 9, and just a whisker above #10. After UNI's win, MVC is still #9, but now closer to #8 than to #10. Must have been some of those "good losses" today.

[isumvc1]

we've been bouncing between 8 & 9 over on warren nolan the past couple days, pretty close among a few conferences there.

[Wufan]

we've been bouncing between 8 & 9 over on warren nolan the past couple days, pretty close among a few conferences there.

10 and 11 are right there with us. Wouldn't take much for us to slip.

[isumvc1]

we've been bouncing between 8 & 9 over on warren nolan the past couple days, pretty close among a few conferences there.

10 and 11 are right there with us. Wouldn't take much for us to slip.

very true, we need some good non conference wins to close out the non con season

[AndShock]

We're projected to end up in 11th .0001 ahead of the MAC. This doesn't take into account games that are TBD (like WSU's games 2 and 3 in Hawaii.)

http://www.rpiforecast.com/confrpi.html

[Wufan]

The scheduling was too weak and the bottom half of the conference just isn't any good. MSU, ISUb, Bradley, SIU, and Drake are all much worse than expected. Thank goodness for Loyola!

[achrist70]

Trying to figure out the RPI forecast website, it predicts us to finish at 14-4 in conference, but yet if you go into our schedule we are favored in every game except at Wichita?

[Aargh]

After today's games, we're still in 8th, but the Shox have Loyola Marymount coming up, which could knock the Valley down a notch even with a neutral court win for the Shox.

With the unusually large gap between the top end of the league and the bottom end of the league, I found an interesting way to look at how tough the league will be for your school. To demonstrate, I'll use the actual numbers for conference rpi and WSU.

Take the conference rpi raw number (.5154 when this post was made) and multiply that by ten for the raw number for the entire league. .5154 x 10 = 5.154

Subtract your team's raw rpi number. I'll use WSU's number when this was posted.

5.154 - .6893 = 4.4647. That gives you the total raw number for the teams your team will face in the Valley, since you don't get to play yourself.

Divide that number by 9. 4.4647/9 = .4961

Look up where that number would fall in conference rpi (http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2015/conferencerpi). For WSU, that makes the league schedule the equivalent of playing in the 15th strongest conference. Just ahead of the Patriot League, and just behind the Colonial Athletic League.