MVC NCAA At-Large Odds

by **Snaggletooth** » December 26th, 2014, 12:29 pm

With Non-conference pretty much over. Here is who season have just begun and those whose season are pretty much over.

Losses to give are the amount of losses the team can sustain before their RPI climbs above 45.
The 2nd value is NCAA probability of being at-large team. All this is based off RPIforecast team

1. WSU (10-2) - RPI 8, Expected RPI 22
Losses to give: 6 (this is probably 1-2 to many, because this probably means some really bad losses)
NCAA %: 98%

Synopsis: WSU fans are disappointed with 2 losses, but their non-conference schedule has set them up to get an at-large bid regardless of what happens in STL.

2. UNI (10-1) - RPI 10, Expected RPI 24
Losses to give: 6 (this like WSU is probably 1-2 to many, but going to respect the methodology).
NCAA %: 93%

Synopsis: Like WSU, UNI has played an excellent non-conference (barring a trip up at SD St) and has set themselves up for a potential at-large bid.

3. Evansville (8-2) - RPI 92, Expected RPI 76
Losses to give: 3
NCAA %: 6%

Synopsis: Weak non-conference schedule make it difficult for at-large. They will either have to win the regular season title or STL.

4. ISUR (7-4) - RPI 68, Expected RPI 79
Losses to give: 3
NCAA %: 3.5%

Synopsis: Had a good non-conference schedule to build a at-large resume but did not win the games they needed. If they win the regular season could possibly be at-large material, but looks like they will be looking to STL.

5. LUC (8-2) - RPI 52, Expected RPI 84
Losses to give: 3
NCAA %: 2.4%

Synopsis: Like Evansville, to many really bad RPI teams on their schedule that will preclude them from being at-large material. Lets face it if they got 15-3 in the MVC they will likely win the MVC - does anybody see that really happening.

This is the cut line, all of the remaining teams have no post season aspirations unless they pull a miracle and change their stripes or win in STL. This will be the teams spoiling the post-season chances of the teams above them

6. SWMO (4-6) - RPI 195, Expected RPI 208
Losses to give: 0
NCAA %: <<0.04%

Synopsis: non-conference schedule was not very good, nor did they do very good in it.

7. SIU (6-6) - RPI 321, Expected RPI 258
Losses to give: 0
NCAA %: < <0.01%

Synopsis: Their SOS will actually increase substantially by playing conference games. That is what happens when you schedule 6 RPI 300+ teams (that means they are 0-6 versus team with RPI >300). And this is the No. 7 team in the MVC. [sigh]

8. ISUB (3-7) - RPI 283, Expected RPI 260
Losses to give: 0
NCAA %: <<0.01%

Synopsis: Losers of 6 in row, best win is against Brown. You are what you are - << mediocre.

9. BU (3-8) - RPI 291, Expected RPI 279
Losses to give: 0
NCAA %: <<0.01%

Synopsis: Had some decent teams on their schedule (TCU, STL, Memphis, KSU), so at least they are trying unlike some other MVC programs, but they couldn't execute. To bad as the MVC needs Bradley to be upper division team.

10. DU (2-9) - RPI 293, Expected RPI 291
Losses to give: 0
NCAA %: <<0.01%

Synopsis: Typical Drake team.

**Sponsor**

by **COUTEAU** » December 26th, 2014, 1:00 pm

Snaggletooth wrote:With Non-conference pretty much over. Here is who season have just begun and those whose season are pretty much over.

Losses to give are the amount of losses the team can sustain before their RPI climbs above 45.
The 2nd value is NCAA probability of being at-large team. All this is based off RPIforecast team

1. WSU (10-2) - RPI 8, Expected RPI 22
Losses to give: 6 (this is probably 1-2 to many, because this probably means some really bad losses)
NCAA %: 98%

Synopsis: WSU fans are disappointed with 2 losses, but their non-conference schedule has set them up to get an at-large bid regardless of what happens in STL.

2. UNI (10-1) - RPI 10, Expected RPI 24
Losses to give: 6 (this like WSU is probably 1-2 to many, but going to respect the methodology).
NCAA %: 93%

Synopsis: Like WSU, UNI has played an excellent non-conference (barring a trip up at SD St) and has set themselves up for a potential at-large bid.

3. Evansville (8-2) - RPI 92, Expected RPI 76
Losses to give: 3
NCAA %: 6%

Synopsis: Weak non-conference schedule make it difficult for at-large. They will either have to win the regular season title or STL.

4. ISUR (7-4) - RPI 68, Expected RPI 79
Losses to give: 3
NCAA %: 3.5%

Synopsis: Had a good non-conference schedule to build a at-large resume but did not win the games they needed. If they win the regular season could possibly be at-large material, but looks like they will be looking to STL.

5. LUC (8-2) - RPI 52, Expected RPI 84
Losses to give: 3
NCAA %: 2.4%

Synopsis: Like Evansville, to many really bad RPI teams on their schedule that will preclude them from being at-large material. Lets face it if they got 15-3 in the MVC they will likely win the MVC - does anybody see that really happening.

This is the cut line, all of the remaining teams have no post season aspirations unless they pull a miracle and change their stripes or win in STL. This will be the teams spoiling the post-season chances of the teams above them

6. SWMO (4-6) - RPI 195, Expected RPI 208
Losses to give: 0
NCAA %: <<0.04%

Synopsis: non-conference schedule was not very good, nor did they do very good in it.

7. SIU (6-6) - RPI 321, Expected RPI 258
Losses to give: 0
NCAA %: < <0.01%

Synopsis: Their SOS will actually increase substantially by playing conference games. That is what happens when you schedule 6 RPI 300+ teams (that means they are 0-6 versus team with RPI >300). And this is the No. 7 team in the MVC. [sigh]

8. ISUB (3-7) - RPI 283, Expected RPI 260
Losses to give: 0
NCAA %: <<0.01%

Synopsis: Losers of 6 in row, best win is against Brown. You are what you are - << mediocre.

9. BU (3-8) - RPI 291, Expected RPI 279
Losses to give: 0
NCAA %: <<0.01%

Synopsis: Had some decent teams on their schedule (TCU, STL, Memphis, KSU), so at least they are trying unlike some other MVC programs, but they couldn't execute. To bad as the MVC needs Bradley to be upper division team.

10. DU (2-9) - RPI 293, Expected RPI 291
Losses to give: 0
NCAA %: <<0.01%

Synopsis: Typical Drake team.

I always find it quite funny how you post little bits of info, to be anything other than insulting to other schools, in The VALLEY. Even posting records differently for SHOX, than anyone else.

examples....have often in the past posted University of Evansville as EU. For no other reason, than disrespect. period.
Now, you've done this with Missouri State, by posting SWMO. Knowing full well, the school in Springfield was changed more than a few years ago, to Missouri State University.

Posting the ACES record at 8-2...Loyola at 8-2......MSU at 4-6......ect and every other MVC team, with less wins than actually recorded. I understand that. Those wins are against DI schools only.
Then, why list SHOX at 10-2? They also have a win against a DII school.
I can agree with your posted analysis. However, don't understand why you feel the need to blur facts or insult fellow MVC institutions school's proper names.

by **Snaggletooth** » December 26th, 2014, 1:12 pm

oh poor whittle baby, are your little feelings hurt......

by **TheDrake** » December 26th, 2014, 2:51 pm

Snaggletooth wrote:oh poor whittle baby, are your little feelings hurt......

Why is it "whittle" the first time and "little" the second time?

by **Snaggletooth** » December 26th, 2014, 3:33 pm

TheDrake wrote:
Snaggletooth wrote:oh poor whittle baby, are your little feelings hurt......

Why is it "whittle" the first time and "little" the second time?

I'll be honest, I don't think anyone knows why anymore. Scholars maintain that the translation was lost hundreds of years ago.

by **GoAcesgo** » December 26th, 2014, 3:47 pm

[quote="Snaggletooth"]With Non-conference pretty much over. Here is who season have just begun and those whose season are pretty much over.

Losses to give are the amount of losses the team can sustain before their RPI climbs above 45.
The 2nd value is NCAA probability of being at-large team. All this is based off RPIforecast team

1. WSU (10-2) - RPI 8, Expected RPI 22
Losses to give: 6 (this is probably 1-2 to many, because this probably means some really bad losses)
NCAA %: 98%

Synopsis: WSU fans are disappointed with 2 losses, but their non-conference schedule has set them up to get an at-large bid regardless of what happens in STL.

2. UNI (10-1) - RPI 10, Expected RPI 24
Losses to give: 6 (this like WSU is probably 1-2 to many, but going to respect the methodology).
NCAA %: 93%

Synopsis: Like WSU, UNI has played an excellent non-conference (barring a trip up at SD St) and has set themselves up for a potential at-large bid.

3. Evansville (8-2) - RPI 92, Expected RPI 76
Losses to give: 3
NCAA %: 6%

Synopsis: Weak non-conference schedule make it difficult for at-large. They will either have to win the regular season title or STL.

4. ISUR (7-4) - RPI 68, Expected RPI 79
Losses to give: 3
NCAA %: 3.5%

Synopsis: Had a good non-conference schedule to build a at-large resume but did not win the games they needed. If they win the regular season could possibly be at-large material, but looks like they will be looking to STL.

5. LUC (8-2) - RPI 52, Expected RPI 84
Losses to give: 3
NCAA %: 2.4%

I think Evansville and Loyola and probably ISUR could finish in 2nd place with a 14-4 record and still get an at large bid.

by **glm38** » December 26th, 2014, 4:22 pm

COUTEAU wrote:
Snaggletooth wrote:With Non-conference pretty much over. Here is who season have just begun and those whose season are pretty much over.

Losses to give are the amount of losses the team can sustain before their RPI climbs above 45.
The 2nd value is NCAA probability of being at-large team. All this is based off RPIforecast team

1. WSU (10-2) - RPI 8, Expected RPI 22
Losses to give: 6 (this is probably 1-2 to many, because this probably means some really bad losses)
NCAA %: 98%

Synopsis: WSU fans are disappointed with 2 losses, but their non-conference schedule has set them up to get an at-large bid regardless of what happens in STL.

2. UNI (10-1) - RPI 10, Expected RPI 24
Losses to give: 6 (this like WSU is probably 1-2 to many, but going to respect the methodology).
NCAA %: 93%

Synopsis: Like WSU, UNI has played an excellent non-conference (barring a trip up at SD St) and has set themselves up for a potential at-large bid.

3. Evansville (8-2) - RPI 92, Expected RPI 76
Losses to give: 3
NCAA %: 6%

Synopsis: Weak non-conference schedule make it difficult for at-large. They will either have to win the regular season title or STL.

4. ISUR (7-4) - RPI 68, Expected RPI 79
Losses to give: 3
NCAA %: 3.5%

Synopsis: Had a good non-conference schedule to build a at-large resume but did not win the games they needed. If they win the regular season could possibly be at-large material, but looks like they will be looking to STL.

5. LUC (8-2) - RPI 52, Expected RPI 84
Losses to give: 3
NCAA %: 2.4%

Synopsis: Like Evansville, to many really bad RPI teams on their schedule that will preclude them from being at-large material. Lets face it if they got 15-3 in the MVC they will likely win the MVC - does anybody see that really happening.

This is the cut line, all of the remaining teams have no post season aspirations unless they pull a miracle and change their stripes or win in STL. This will be the teams spoiling the post-season chances of the teams above them

6. SWMO (4-6) - RPI 195, Expected RPI 208
Losses to give: 0
NCAA %: <<0.04%

Synopsis: non-conference schedule was not very good, nor did they do very good in it.

7. SIU (6-6) - RPI 321, Expected RPI 258
Losses to give: 0
NCAA %: < <0.01%

Synopsis: Their SOS will actually increase substantially by playing conference games. That is what happens when you schedule 6 RPI 300+ teams (that means they are 0-6 versus team with RPI >300). And this is the No. 7 team in the MVC. [sigh]

8. ISUB (3-7) - RPI 283, Expected RPI 260
Losses to give: 0
NCAA %: <<0.01%

Synopsis: Losers of 6 in row, best win is against Brown. You are what you are - << mediocre.

9. BU (3-8) - RPI 291, Expected RPI 279
Losses to give: 0
NCAA %: <<0.01%

Synopsis: Had some decent teams on their schedule (TCU, STL, Memphis, KSU), so at least they are trying unlike some other MVC programs, but they couldn't execute. To bad as the MVC needs Bradley to be upper division team.

10. DU (2-9) - RPI 293, Expected RPI 291
Losses to give: 0
NCAA %: <<0.01%

Synopsis: Typical Drake team.

I always find it quite funny how you post little bits of info, to be anything other than insulting to other schools, in The VALLEY. Even posting records differently for SHOX, than anyone else.

examples....have often in the past posted University of Evansville as EU. For no other reason, than disrespect. period.
Now, you've done this with Missouri State, by posting SWMO. Knowing full well, the school in Springfield was changed more than a few years ago, to Missouri State University.

Posting the ACES record at 8-2...Loyola at 8-2......MSU at 4-6......ect and every other MVC team, with less wins than actually recorded. I understand that. Those wins are against DI schools only.
Then, why list SHOX at 10-2? They also have a win against a DII school.
I can agree with your posted analysis. However, don't understand why you feel the need to blur facts or insult fellow MVC institutions school's proper names.

It's best to just ignore him. He's one of those guys that thrives on put downs and back handed slights. Kind of pathetic actually.

by **Brot4britu** » December 26th, 2014, 5:32 pm

Well, Brot is pleased that LUC is included in the 'possibles"---All I know is we , LUC, an all the others must win and win and win--The stats (RPI) will take care of themselves. We cannot control what other teams do. One thing is clear to me--Our league if it is in a tussle for a bid, against say a Big 14 team or a Big East team, you just know thet will ignore us in favor of the other guys.

BTW, thanks for using LUC--Loyola Univ Chicago--Most of the so called Media refers to us as Loyil--Yuck !!

by **Wufan** » December 26th, 2014, 6:28 pm

GoAcesgo wrote:
Snaggletooth wrote:With Non-conference pretty much over. Here is who season have just begun and those whose season are pretty much over.

Losses to give are the amount of losses the team can sustain before their RPI climbs above 45.
The 2nd value is NCAA probability of being at-large team. All this is based off RPIforecast team

1. WSU (10-2) - RPI 8, Expected RPI 22
Losses to give: 6 (this is probably 1-2 to many, because this probably means some really bad losses)
NCAA %: 98%

Synopsis: WSU fans are disappointed with 2 losses, but their non-conference schedule has set them up to get an at-large bid regardless of what happens in STL.

2. UNI (10-1) - RPI 10, Expected RPI 24
Losses to give: 6 (this like WSU is probably 1-2 to many, but going to respect the methodology).
NCAA %: 93%

Synopsis: Like WSU, UNI has played an excellent non-conference (barring a trip up at SD St) and has set themselves up for a potential at-large bid.

3. Evansville (8-2) - RPI 92, Expected RPI 76
Losses to give: 3
NCAA %: 6%

Synopsis: Weak non-conference schedule make it difficult for at-large. They will either have to win the regular season title or STL.

4. ISUR (7-4) - RPI 68, Expected RPI 79
Losses to give: 3
NCAA %: 3.5%

Synopsis: Had a good non-conference schedule to build a at-large resume but did not win the games they needed. If they win the regular season could possibly be at-large material, but looks like they will be looking to STL.

5. LUC (8-2) - RPI 52, Expected RPI 84
Losses to give: 3
NCAA %: 2.4%

I think Evansville and Loyola and probably ISUR could finish in 2nd place with a 14-4 record and still get an at large bid.

The probability given above is per RPIForecast, as stated by the OP. Each of the 3rd thru 5th ranked teams above have 3 losses to give to maintain an RPI less than 45, which would pretty much guarantee a bubble team. In most seasons 15-3 is good enough to win the conference and 12-6 is good enough for second. Having to face four other high quality road teams will make it exceedingly difficult to do better than 14-4...good enough for second, but not good enough to be in the dance.

by **Rambler63** » December 27th, 2014, 7:59 pm

I don't get the methodology of this breakdown. Loyola has better quality non-con wins than Evansville or ISUr (Boise St. & Texas Tech at a neutral site, Kent St. on the road), and better quality losses (only Mich. St. and Tulane).

Even following wins by IUPUI and Green Bay today, Warren Nolan's RPI-based projection has Evansville going 11-7 in conference finishing with an RPI of 97, ISUr going 12-6 in conference with a final RPI of 79, and Loyola going 13-5 with a final RPI of 56. If that projection came to pass, Loyola would be in NIT territory.

Granted, Loyola has a lot to prove in conference play. The Ramblers have a habit of Jekyll and Hyde halves on full seasons. But going 5-1 away from home in non-con-- including wins against a Big 12 team and Mountain West title contender-- bodes well predictively for the Ramblers. It's also an impressive plus for Loyola that half of their 10 Division 1 non-con opponents (UTSA, Jackson State, Southern Utah, Texas Tech, and Boise State) were held to their lowest point outputs of the season.

What's more, Loyola has been improving in primary deficiencies during the course of the season. Loyola's rebounding margin has been -17, -2, +4, -15, -11, 0, +25, +9, +10, and +6 progressively against Division 1 teams. That's pretty impressive for the shortest team in the conference, with no player taller than 6'7" seeing significant time. The opposition in the last two games was a combined 6-for-51 (.118) from behind the arc, and Loyola has shown the ability to close out a tight game against Boise State.

Maybe Loyola snuck up on some teams in the non-con. That won't happen in conference play. But at this stage-- given the evidence and the trends-- I'd have to say a third place finish is just as likely as fifth.