MVC NCAA At-Large Odds

[BCPanther]

Going into League play, here is how I see it shaking out-

1- WSU- 16-2 NCAA
2- UNI- 15-3 NCAA
3- Evansville- 11-7 NIT
4- Loyola- 11-7 NIT Bubble
5- Illinois State- 10-8 CBI\CIT
6- Missouri State- 8-10
7- Southern Illinois- 7-11
8- Bradley- 6-12
9- Indiana State- 5-13
10- Drake 1-17

League title comes down to UNI and Wichita on the last day of the season with Gameday in the house.

[TheAsianSensation]

The simplest breakdown is that any of the chasers will likely need 2 wins against the combination of UNI and WSU to have legitimate at-large hopes. UE and LUC just simply don't have the non-con SoS needed to trade punches on the bubble with the big boys in March. That UE loss to Green Bay is just such a killer right now. And IlSU scheduled up....but man, that Utah St loss looks much worse than it usually does. So of course ISU has the best win by far of any of these 3 schools (N-Old Dominion). Aargh. Every team here messed up one more time than they could afford.

What really needs to happen is one of the 3 teams separating themselves from the other 2. If someone can break away, all the better.

[Snaggletooth]

I don't get the methodology of this breakdown. Loyola has better quality non-con wins than Evansville or ISUr (Boise St. & Texas Tech at a neutral site, Kent St. on the road), and better quality losses (only Mich. St. and Tulane).

ISUR has a win over 39 Old Dominion
Evansville best win is over 119 Belmont
LUC best win is over 60 Boise State

The real problem for LUC is has some RPI killers - RPI 314, 299, 314.....those 300 teams are absolute killers to RPI. Although Evansville schedule is not anything to write home about (and it probably ensures that they have to win STL to go dancing), they didn't have those 300+ teams (compared to LUC). So for the league the SOS of OOC is:

WSU 25
UNI 69
Evansville 234
ISUR 61
LUC 266
MSU 195
SIU 350
ISUB 246
BU 281
DU 139

Only 3 teams had at-large schedules: WSU, UNI and ISUR. DU had marginal schedule that potentially would allow them to ride the coat tails of WSU and UNI but busted.

ISUR lost 3 games by 4 pts each game - had they won 2 of 3 of those games their outlook might have been a little better.

Simple fact is if LUC want to really be competing for at-large they will need to step up their scheduling, and then execute.

[Redbird23]

I don't get the methodology of this breakdown. Loyola has better quality non-con wins than Evansville or ISUr (Boise St. & Texas Tech at a neutral site, Kent St. on the road), and better quality losses (only Mich. St. and Tulane).

ISUR has a win over 39 Old Dominion
Evansville best win is over 119 Belmont
LUC best win is over 60 Boise State

The real problem for LUC is has some RPI killers - RPI 314, 299, 314.....those 300 teams are absolute killers to RPI. Although Evansville schedule is not anything to write home about (and it probably ensures that they have to win STL to go dancing), they didn't have those 300+ teams (compared to LUC). So for the league the SOS of OOC is:

WSU 25
UNI 69
Evansville 234
ISUR 61
LUC 266
MSU 195
SIU 350
ISUB 246
BU 281
DU 139

Only 3 teams had at-large schedules: WSU, UNI and ISUR. DU had marginal schedule that potentially would allow them to ride the coat tails of WSU and UNI but busted.

ISUR lost 3 games by 4 pts each game - had they won 2 of 3 of those games their outlook might have been a little better.

Simple fact is if LUC want to really be competing for at-large they will need to step up their scheduling, and then execute.

The loss against VCU was probably the biggest killer. If we had won that we would have a win against the #2 RPI rated team and we would be 9-3 in non-con (pending a win vs D2 Quincy tom)