TAS Bracketology 2014-15

[TheAsianSensation]

I could easily go either way on seeding UNI or Wichita higher. I think it's UNI by a razor thin margin...I think. It won't matter, because at least one team is losing again, so this will solve itself. Both on the 4 line....but UNC and Virginia have the ACC tournament and Virginia/Duke/UND in their sights...all those Big East teams have each other and Villanova...all these Big 12 teams will collide...the winner of the Valley tourney is probably a 4 seed, but the loser is going to be under assault to keep even a 5 seed, perhaps.


The 1 line: Kentucky (29-0), Virginia (27-1), Duke (26-3), Villanova (27-2)
The 2 line: Arizona (26-3), Gonzaga (28-2), Wisconsin (26-3), Kansas (23-6)
The 3 line: Maryland (24-5), Utah (21-6), Notre Dame (24-5), Oklahoma (20-8)
The 4 line: Baylor (21-7), Northern Iowa (27-3), Wichita St (26-3), Iowa St (20-8)
The 5 line: North Carolina (20-9), Louisville (23-6), Providence (20-9), Arkansas (23-6)
The 6 line: Butler (21-8), Georgetown (18-9), West Virginia (22-7), SMU (22-6)
The 7 line: St John's (19-9), VCU (21-8), Cincinnati (20-9), Dayton (22-6)
The 8 line: Michigan St (19-10), San Diego St (21-7), Oklahoma St (16-11), Xavier (18-12)
The 9 line: Indiana (19-10), Colorado St (23-5), Oregon (21-8), Ohio St (21-8)
The 10 line: Iowa (19-10), North Carolina St (17-12), LSU (21-8), Georgia (19-9)
The 11 line: Mississippi (19-10), Purdue (19-10), Boise St (20-7), UCLA (18-12)
The 12 line: Davidson (20-6), Temple (20-9), Tulsa (21-6), Stephen F Austin (21-4), Wofford (23-6), Murray St (24-4)
The 13 line: Iona (24-7), Harvard (18-6), Louisiana Tech (22-7), Valparaiso (23-5)
The 14 line: William & Mary (16-11), UC-Davis (20-5), Central Michigan (18-6), North Carolina Central (19-6)
The 15 line: South Dakota St (19-9), Albany (21-8), New Mexico St (17-10), Texas Southern (16-12)
The 16 line: Georgia Southern (17-7) Sacramento St (17-8), Charleston Southern (16-10), North Florida (17-11), St Francis(NY) (20-10), Bucknell (17-13)

Last 4 in:
Mississippi
Purdue
Boise St (currently in as the Mountain West leader)
UCLA
Davidson (currently in as the A-10 leader)
Temple

Last 4 out:
Tulsa (currently in as the American leader)
BYU
Stanford
Texas
Texas A&M

Bubble inception (we have to go deeper):
Kansas St
Pittsburgh
Miami
Old Dominion
Illinois
Stephen F Austin (currently in as the Southland leader)
UConn

[Play Angry]

I enjoy your work very much each year.

A couple points of strong disagreement after a quick perusal:


If Wichita State wins Arch Madness, they will be no worse than a 3 seed. 3-2 vs. Top 50 teams is good not great, but 9-3 against Top 100 teams and zero bad losses is beyond rock solid from a comparative standpoint. External/"unofficial" factors like poll rankings, KenPom rating/OffEff/DefEff, etc. (which fall under the omnibus "we can consider many factors and go far beyond RPI for discussion" tent) provide an extremely strong tiebreaker. IMO, you have to be convinced the Committee is out to screw WSU to have them on the 4 or 5 line heading into Selection Sunday if they win Arch Madness.

There is no way Temple is above Tulsa in the current pecking order. The Owls are 5-8 against Top 100 teams, were swept by Tulsa H2H, and will finish no better than 3rd in the AAC, whereas Tulsa can lock up a share of the title with a home win on Wednesday (does not appear on Nitty Gritty but will obviously be discussed). If the Golden Hurricane beat Cincy in Tulsa, that drops the Bearcats out of the Top 50 (they are exactly #50 right now) and the Owls will then be 1-7 against that group. The win against Kansas was awesome but those numbers are frankly putrid.

[Wufan]

I am of the opinion that the winner of Arch Madness (if it is WSU and UNI in the finals) will be a three seed at that point. With many teams left to play games, it is possible that the winner would be bumped to a 4 seed depending on who wins/loses in the other major conference tournaments.

The loser of the hypothetical WSU/UNI match up will be a 5 seed with the possibility of moving up or down.

[TheAsianSensation]

If Wichita State wins Arch Madness, they will be no worse than a 3 seed. 3-2 vs. Top 50 teams is good not great, but 9-3 against Top 100 teams and zero bad losses is beyond rock solid from a comparative standpoint. External/"unofficial" factors like poll rankings, KenPom rating/OffEff/DefEff, etc. (which fall under the omnibus "we can consider many factors and go far beyond RPI for discussion" tent) provide an extremely strong tiebreaker. IMO, you have to be convinced the Committee is out to screw WSU to have them on the 4 or 5 line heading into Selection Sunday if they win Arch Madness.

Well, to be fair, N-George Washington is starting to look very questionable.

I just can't shake the signature win problem Wichita has. Well, not a problem per se, but the fact that everyone around them has access to more marquee games and have won them. The win over UNI is one. Most everyone else around them have more. I do think the committee is out to screw WSU and UNI a bit this year.

The Big 12 teams in particular, are going to be an issue in evaluation. Iowa St is 9-5, Oklahoma is 9-4, Baylor is 7-5....against the Top 50. That's going to blow Wichita's v. Top 50 and v. Top 100 numbers out of the water, unfortunately. Notre Dame has 2 wins (Duke, @UNC) better than Wichita's (if you account for road/home splits, @UNC is tougher than home vs. UNI). But with their SoS, Notre Dame is definitely the one school I could be wrong on. Throw in Maryland's couple of signature wins, and Utah beating Wichita St, and there's just a lot of traffic around them.

And Wichita is 10 in Kenpom, for example. If they're ranked 13 or 14 by the committee, that's a 4 seed, and not far from 10.

Good catch on Temple/Tulsa, I should have those flipped since they're next to each other...I still can't get over Tulsa's 2 horrible no good losses. 2 things: First, conference championships mean nothing to the committee. They've said as such. Second, if a team falls out of the Top 50 and is, say, 55, they're not dumb. They can look at the sheets and see they have a couple wins just barely outside the top 50. They're smart enough to avoid looking at hard cutoffs like that (allegedly).

[unipanther99]

I get the signature win thing, but I can't see how they could reward Gonzaga with a 2 seed and not give the winner of Arch Madness a 3. The 'Zag's best win is what? SMU? If they reward Gonzaga and punish UNI/WSU, they are really going to be talking out of both sides of their mouth this year.

[TheAsianSensation]

I get the signature win thing, but I can't see how they could reward Gonzaga with a 2 seed and not give the winner of Arch Madness a 3. The 'Zag's best win is what? SMU? If they reward Gonzaga and punish UNI/WSU, they are really going to be talking out of both sides of their mouth this year.

Yeah, but until they lost to BYU, the only loss was @Arizona. If you don't lose, you get rewarded (see Wichita last year). That's where getting Evansville'd just kills you.

[unipanther99]

Got it. If Evansville wins on Friday and loses to WSU on Saturday is there any chance they sneak into the top 100?

[TheAsianSensation]

Got it. If Evansville wins on Friday and loses to WSU on Saturday is there any chance they sneak into the top 100?

Probably not. But I think this aspect gets overrated by fans too much. Committees have team sheets. If UE just squeaks into the top 100, the committee will see the 98 or 100 next to UNI's games on the team sheets, just as they would see 102 or 103. It's not going to make a big difference, except for the talking heads on TV who need to generalize team profiles in 15 seconds.

[Cdizzle]

Got it. If Evansville wins on Friday and loses to WSU on Saturday is there any chance they sneak into the top 100?

Probably not. But I think this aspect gets overrated by fans too much. Committees have team sheets. If UE just squeaks into the top 100, the committee will see the 98 or 100 next to UNI's games on the team sheets, just as they would see 102 or 103. It's not going to make a big difference, except for the talking heads on TV who need to generalize team profiles in 15 seconds.

I agree to a point. But it does move 2 (or 3) opponents on your team sheet over 1 column to the left, which can make a fairly big difference visually at first glance.

http://fs.ncaa.org/Docs/stats/MBB_RPI/MBBTeam.pdf

[TheAsianSensation]

I just fiddled around with my NIT projections:

First, the following 10 teams are NCAA bubble teams, and NIT locks:
BYU (21-8)
Stanford (18-10)
Texas (17-12)
Texas A&M (20-8)
Kansas St (15-15)
Pittsburgh (18-11)
Miami (18-11)
Old Dominion (22-6)
Illinois (18-11)
UConn (17-11)

The following teams are not NCAA bubble teams, but in my opinion are NIT locks:
Rhode Island (19-7)
Clemson (16-12)
Seton Hall (16-12)
UMass (17-12)
St Mary's (20-8)

15 spots are accounted for. In most years, 8-10 NIT bids are used up by automatic qualifiers (regular season conference champions that do not make the NCAAs). This means at this point, there are 7-9 remaining NIT spots available.

My best estimation of the 7 teams above the cutline:
Memphis (17-12)
Minnesota (16-12)
Oregon St (16-11)
Arizona St (15-13)
George Washington (18-11)
UTEP (19-9)
Richmond (17-12)

The next 2 in limbo:
Green Bay (21-7)
Buffalo (19-9)

The following 8 teams would then be out in a scenario where 8 autobids are taken. As of today, with 0 autobids spoken for, these teams are currently projected in the NIT, but are in obvious trouble:
Wyoming (19-8)
Alabama (16-12)
Yale (19-8)
Toledo (19-10)
Illinois St (18-11)
California (16-12)
Bowling Green (19-7)
Florida St (15-15)