TAS Bracketology 2014-15

[TheAsianSensation]

Not the cleanest of starts in NIT PoachWatch '15.

Through 7 complete conference tourneys, 4 NIT bids have been poached, and a 5th one is already spoken for in the still-going-on Patriot League.

11 more leagues still in progress where poaching can happen
1 league (MAC) with so teams littered around the NIT bubble to begin with such that it's impossible to know if that's a bid poaching situation
1 league (Ivy) where both Harvard and Yale would be NIT bubble teams
1 league (CUSA) where the presence of ODU throws things off a bit
and 10 traditional power multi-bid conferences who likely won't be a threat

[Rollbird5]

One of the guys on the redbird fan forum posted this link http://www.dratings.com/predictor/bracketology/
Have us as a 3 seed right now according to this

[isumvc1]

Time to start the NIT bubble watch for Illinois St. I had them estimated as 5 adrift from the bubble before the Wichita win. It's really going to be down to the wire for them.

NIT bid steals so far - 3
Big South
Ohio Valley
Patriot

add Summit League as league champion So Dakota St. just lost to ndsu. ndsu goes to NCAA, sdsu steals another NIT bid.

[TheAsianSensation]

NIT poachings so far:
Big South
OVC
Patriot
MAAC
CAA
Summit
NEC

We're at 7 so far.

There are still 8 conferences on the board with direct bid poaching potential (1-bid leagues), plus the MAC and CUSA where things are ambiguous to say the least.

Not breaking well for ISU so far

The good among those 8 conferences:
MEAC: NCCU should roll
SWAC: Texas Southern might not even have to win the tournament to get the SWAC's automatic bid
WAC: New Mexico St HAS to roll this conference
Southland: Stephen F Austin should handle this
A-East: At least they're already down to the finals and Albany has homecourt

The bad:
Big West: I don't know, do YOU trust a Jim Les team in this spot?
Big Sky and Sun Belt: These were conference races that were very tight and includes 4 and 3 teams, respectively, so these are plump poaching opportunities

[Redbird Recon]

Does a mid-60's RPI team usually make the NIT? If yes, why are you so low on the Redbirds? If no, what about ISU's resume keeps them in the discussion? I'm seeing a few of projections with ISU not only in but hosting a game. With that said, I trust your opinion and know you do your research. Thanks TAS!

[TheAsianSensation]

Does a mid-60's RPI team usually make the NIT? If yes, why are you so low on the Redbirds? If no, what about ISU's resume keeps them in the discussion? I'm seeing a few of projections with ISU not only in but hosting a game. With that said, I trust your opinion and know you do your research. Thanks TAS!

Usually, in the 60s is good enough to get a bid, although Toledo in the 40s last year got dangerously close to the cutline and we have a Buffalo inside the top 40 this year in play.

The issue with comparing to previous NIT years is that the NIT bubble has gotten tighter and tighter every year. It keeps shrinking.

If we go straight by the current RPI, Illinois St has the 12th highest RPI for a NIT at-large candidate (using my S-Curve as the basis for simplicity here). The following teams are behind them in RPI but feel like clear NIT candidates ahead of them: UConn, Pitt, Rhode Island, St Mary's, and let's say Memphis. Let's say ISU bumps down to 16th in the NIT at-large pecking order.

At #16, and estimating 10 automatic bids being used at the bottom of the bracket, that leaves only 6 more at-large spots available. Among the contenders behind ISU:
George Washington, Seton Hall, Alabama, UTEP, Toledo, K-State, Arizona St, Vandy, Minnesota, Wyoming.

Now, ISU will finish ahead of some of them in the NIT's theoretical S-Curve. Most, in fact. But a couple runs here and there changes everything. Seton Hall already has a decent resume and has a loaded Big East tourney to make a run in. GW has the Wichita win already. Alabama can rip through a soft SEC. There's a lot of different teams with different paths who can pass ISU this week. And while most won't, a couple will. And a couple more might be valued by the selection committee more. And the committee might or might not have BCS bias

And even forgetting everything else, just the raw RPI of 66 is a problem. ISU is done playing. Everyone around them is playing, and in conference tourneys, where many are going to get a SoS boost and perhaps a winning boost, and shoot past ISU. I think ISU might drop 5 or so spots just out of sheer attrition of having everyone else in action. Remember, ISU's big jump to the 60s was because of a rather healthy SoS boost, the type of boost a few teams will experience this week also.

So it's no large overwhelming factor really that has me worried. To me, it's the collection of a lot of little things working against ISU right now. One automatic bid here, one automatic bid there, one Alabama run there, one subtle shift in RPI, and all of a sudden things go sideways.

[TheAsianSensation]

Of course, once I say all that...

A big, big day for ISU. A big day in the positive.

Losers includes Arizona St, Oregon St, Kansas St, Seton Hall and Clemson. All lost to inferior competition and all were floating within vicinity of the NIT bubble.

[TheAsianSensation]

I sketched this out:

The 1 line: Tulsa (21-8), Temple (22-9), Miami (21-11), Old Dominion (24-6)
The 2 line: Illinois (19-12), Stanford (19-12), Murray St (25-5), Texas A&M (20-10)
The 3 line: Richmond (19-12), UConn (17-13), Rhode Island (20-8), Pittsburgh (18-14)
The 4 line: St Mary's (20-9), UMass (17-14), Memphis (18-13), Alabama (17-13)
The 5 line: George Washington (20-11), Iona (26-8), Buffalo (21-9), Vanderbilt (18-12)
The 6 line: Illinois St (20-12), Green Bay (22-8), Arizona St (17-15), Harvard (19-7)
The 7 line: Minnesota (17-14), Seton Hall (16-15), UTEP (21-9), William & Mary (18-12)
The 8 line: South Dakota St (21-10), St Francis(NY) (22-11), Charleston Southern (16-11), Bucknell (18-14)

The first 13 teams reside in the NIT lockbox.

Bubble in:
UMass
Memphis
Alabama
George Washington
Buffalo

Next 4 in:
Vanderbilt
Illinois St
Green Bay
Arizona St

Last 4 in:
Harvard
Minnesota
Seton Hall
UTEP

Last 4 out:
Florida St (17-15)
Oregon St (16-14)
Clemson (16-15)
California (18-14)

Next 4 out:
Wyoming (20-9)
UNLV (17-14)
Toledo (19-12)
Sam Houston St (20-7)

Under this S-Curve, the committee has the power to move teams up or down a seed line. Therefore, Illinois at Illinois St is almost a complete certainty to happen.

[unipanther99]

Is it starting this year that the NCAA selection committee awards the 4 NIT 1 seeds? If so, I could see them turning it into some sort of consolation prize for teams like Murray St. and Iona with gaudy win totals but bad metrics otherwise.

[TheAsianSensation]

Is it starting this year that the NCAA selection committee awards the 4 NIT 1 seeds? If so, I could see them turning it into some sort of consolation prize for teams like Murray St. and Iona with gaudy win totals but bad metrics otherwise.

It's starting just this year.

They've actually released their "last four out" the past couple of years...and last year, two of their last 4 out got 4 seeds from the NIT committee.

Knowing their procedures for voting on at-large teams, to be honest...it's going to be really tough for them to hand out "ceremonial" 1 seeds, like to Murray St. The 4 teams that are the first ones out are the ones rejected through their normal voting process, so the committee won't have to do any extra work.