UAB to the MVC?

[pafan]

Loyola added over 2 million TV households to the MVC footprint in replacing Creighton, almost equal to all the other MVC markets combined.
...
TV contract prospects have vastly improved as a result.

Trivia: The Drake-DePaul game on FS1 this year had 13,000 viewers. Having households nearby doesn't mean much in and of itself.

Households become a relevant number if you're launching your own network and charging a per subscriber fee. If not, it's all about ratings, and the city of Chicago doesn't automatically deliver.

[TheAsianSensation]

FS1 needs to add a second major conference to their TV lineup. They can't lean on a single conference like they're trying to do with the Big East. They need to make FS1 a destination for college basketball, not a novelty. At the very least, they need to poach CUSA and the Mountain West from CBS.

[TheAsianSensation]

I think you're incorrect here. The AAC at this point is very likely to add a non-football school.

The AAC currently has 11 full members. Navy will be joining this coming football season as a football-only member, as Navy's other sports are not competitive enough for full AAC membership.

Which means the AAC now has 12 football members and 11 members for all other sports. The AAC is unlikely to maintain an unbalanced lineup in all non-football sports, and they're absolutely not going to add another full-member to round off the other sports, which would put their football conference at 13.

IMO, either someone leaves within the year, or the AAC will be adding a school without football.

I think the MWC is in a similar boat, although I think the MWC will add Gonzaga at some point. They also have 11 full members and 12 football members, leaving an obvious opening for a single school without football.

The problem is I agree with you completely, but the MWC has gone with the 12/11 split for a couple years now, and the Big East is about to do the same. I think that 12/11 is untenable in the long-term, but why won't they make the move?

I know the AAC is gunshy about non-football programs. But they have to swallow their pride. No matter if it's Wichita or VCU, they need to make a move. And more importantly, get the Floridas and Tulane and ECU out of the 200s in the RPI.

[rlh04d]

The problem is I agree with you completely, but the MWC has gone with the 12/11 split for a couple years now, and the Big East is about to do the same. I think that 12/11 is untenable in the long-term, but why won't they make the move?

I know the AAC is gunshy about non-football programs. But they have to swallow their pride. No matter if it's Wichita or VCU, they need to make a move. And more importantly, get the Floridas and Tulane and ECU out of the 200s in the RPI.

Yep. Which is part of the problem I have with joining the AAC. The bottom of their conference is nearly as bad as the bottom of the MVC.

I think WSU is GOING to join the AAC, not necessarily that I WANT them to join the AAC. I only see the AAC as preferable over staying in a Valley that continuously refuses to improve.

And yeah, I can understand why the AAC is gunshy about non-football programs, what with how many non-football programs abandoned them for the ACC. Oh, wait

You're right, though. I personally think they were waiting to see how things were going to shake out at first and see if they lost any other schools. My understanding is that they have a TV contract look-in coming up with the possibility at increasing the per-school payouts in the very near future, though, which could easily force their hand.

[rlh04d]

Bradley took an enormous financial hit to repair their program under a new AD, and despite terrible weakness in the bottom four programs, the MVC is neck and neck with the West Coast for the 9th best hoops conference, only marginally behind the AAC and A-10.

I just don't get how WSU thinks they'll be better off elsewhere, especially when big conference programs are throwing $3 million-plus offers at the coach who lifted them out of the MVC cellar only a few years ago.

1) Take Wichita State out of those numbers and add Wichita State to the AAC or A-10, and the MVC isn't even close to either of those two conferences.The MVC is not battling for #9 without WSU. Remove WSU from the current rankings and the Valley falls to .503 and 13th place. With the Ivy League catching up.

2) Wichita State was in the Sweet 16 two seasons prior to Marshall's entrance and in the AP top 10 the season before Marshall's entrance, prior to a team personnel explosion. Either you have a weird definition of "the MVC cellar" or you don't know what you're talking about. WSU hasn't been in the "cellar," other than Marshall's first year, since the beginning of the 2000s when Coach Turgeon, the current Maryland coach, arrived.

3) If you think the potential of Loyola's market is going to suddenly be the paradigm shift that causes the MVC to make TV revenue, you're confused.

[rlh04d]

Unless the MVC can monetize WSU/UNI's success lately into an improved TV deal that's bringing in real revenue. The MVC's TV contract expires in October 2016. Add UAB and another quality program and get us $2-300k a year in TV revenue, and I'm all for WSU staying. WSU will be very good again next year. If IlSt and UNI are at-large teams as well, that could be a big negotiating point.

By the time the MVC TV deal is up again, I think we'll have a pretty good idea whether these second-tier sports networks (NBCSN, FOX Sports 1, CBS Sports) will be successful. If they are, then the MVC should be able to get some cash out of one of them.

But for the moment the FS1 deal with the Big East looks like a money pit for FOX. The TV ratings for the Big East tournament were atrocious - 414,000 viewers for the championship game. The BE championship lead-in program, a Nascar Nationwide series race, had 5x the viewers.

The MVC championship game, on CBS, and lacking the conference's biggest fan base, was around 1.3 million viewers.

Colonial and A10 games on NBCSN have been doing even worse than the BE. The Colonial championship drew 90,000 viewers. The best-viewed A10 quarterfinal game drew 95,000 (The semis and champs were on CBS Sports and CBS). Those two games were beaten by Formula 1 qualifying (airing at 2 in the morning!) and Cycling. Cycling!

It is my suspicion that these networks will not be eager to bid up anything the MVC has to offer.

I agree with TAS that the only way FS1 can be successful is by adding more content. That's a situation where you simply need the viewing equivalent of economies of scale. No one is watching FS1 unless they are specifically a Big East fan ... you have to make FS1 a destination for college basketball fans. I don't think the MVC is the solution by any means, either. I think they need at least one major conference and then someone like the Valley to add additional content.

I want to mock Creighton as much as the next guy, but FS1 is only a failure if Fox doesn't stay dedicated to it. If their goal is to build a long-term contender to ESPN, they can't be influenced much by short-term rankings. Fox has the money to lose. They have the Big East contract for another decade. They have to keep being aggressive and the ratings will come, as the network gains market share. If they overreact to early rankings, it'll go down as a massive failure and they'll lose tons of money.

I also don't think you necessarily need competition to increase TV revenue. ESPN has shown time and time again that they'll give conferences increased concessions without any actual competition. Look at the ACC's recent deals ... they've moved up their TV contract considerably without even flirting with another destination. ESPN's a heartless monstrosity, but their TV contracts aren't as by the numbers as one would expect. They could have gotten the Syracuse/Pitt/ND additions to the ACC for free if they wanted, and instead probably overpaid for them. In part to settle conference realignment down and make sure they didn't lose teams to another conference not on their networks (Big 12), and to keep conferences happy so they don't have as much motivation to let a new network's pitch matter.

[DoubleJayAlum]

Never say never, but I don't see the AAC adding a nonfootball school for 2 main reasons:

1) the members that were formally in the Big East experienced first hand what can happen when you mix both football and nonfootball schools. They essentially lost their conference due to the whole football experiment. It seems unlikely that they will willingly go down that road again unless the point comes when they have no choice. UConn and Cincy fans are already wondering if they made a tragic mistake in playing the football gambit. UCOnns boards are littered with threads about how basketball recruiting has taken a hit since joining the AAC.

2) Some of the southern schools simply don't care about basketball - they are all football all the time. That is primarily the reason their RPIs are so miserable. If you don't care, you don't invest because you think the money is either wasted or better spent elsewhere. If you don't beleive in basketball, you won't be in favor of adding a basketball only school.

[uniftw]

I get WSU fans issues with the MVC right now.

The AAC bottom is every bit as bad as the MVC. If the MVC makes a right move, for the first time in a decade or two, and manages to land UAB plus one other strong school does it not help ease some WSU issues?

It would then give WSU a couple partners in national name recoginition - UNI, UAB and say Murray State/Belmont. ISUr seems to be trending up if they can develop the mental side of the game.

WSU, UNI, UAB, Murray State and ISUr would make a very strong top of the conference. Yes, we'd still have dead weight with the bottom - Drake, Bradley, etc... but if Bradley hires right and we add Bradley in with WSU, UNI, UAB, Murray State and ISUr...I mean...

[Play Angry]

Belmont is a very scary add to me. That program is Rick Byrd, and he is old (61). Facilities, funding, and otherwise, they are entirely unimpressive. He has done a great job and reached the Tournament 7 times in 10 years. However, how many of those were they good enough to receive an at-large bid had they fallen short in the conference tournament? None. Which is the same number of wins they have registered in those 7 trips to the dance.

It will be a real shame if we have to add yet another private school in the event UAB is admitted to placate the current anklebiters. The selection is very underwhelming.

[unipanther99]

I would much rather have Murray than Belmont, and would rather keep the current 10 than add even UAB. I'm still unsure of their long-term commitment to athletics. It seems like most here thought it was a bad idea a year ago when it was discussed. One round of 32 trip shouldn't change that IMO.

I think it's best for everyone to sit tight and see how football shakes out over the next 5 years. Does the current 4 tier system stay in place (Power 5, non-Power 5 FBS, FCS scholarship, FCS non-scholarship), or does it change (Revenue generating, non-revenue generating, non-scholly does whatever)? If that happens, katy-bar-the-door for realignment.